George Rebane

One would think that the record of these pages, which includes a considerable revelation of my background, would have cleared up any questions of how I view America’s relationship with and policy toward Russia – apparently not.  So let me attempt to spell it out.  For those expecting a simple view about Russia with a three-word policy epilogue, the sequel will disappoint, and to those I recommend other reading materials.

Russia is a thugocracy of about 145 million mostly slavic souls that is sovereign over a 6,590,000 square mile resource rich patch of earth that covers two continents.  It is a nuclear power with totally undefendable borders that has historically counted on its land area and winters to defeat its enemies.  Since these barriers will no longer serve in modern times, it has resorted to MAD as its defense against military invasion by a peer nuclear power.  This policy supports the proposition that nuclear weapons have saved hundreds of millions of lives since their invention and demonstrated use.  Russia today projects power by military bluff of small police actions – e.g. Georgia – but mostly through political skill – e.g. witness its dealings with the EU and Obama – and now technology based subterfuge.

As a thugocracy, the system of Russian governance is marginally stable as a standoff between Putin and his praetorian guard against oligarchs who generate wealth primarily through extractive enterprises which they can barely finance given the rate at which they export cash to more secure repositories across the world.  What is left over from such corruption (of which Team Putin is a party) makes up what may be called state revenues.  In short, Russia’s economy is in tatters which brings in the third leg of instability, namely its demography dominated by an aging population whose contingent of young bear children at 1.3 per fecund woman (2.1 is the accepted replacement rate).

To extend its life as a sovereign nation-state, Russia must conquer its more productive neighbors or morph into a law-abiding capitalistic state.  Socialism was tried, it didn’t work then, and what’s left of it now doesn’t work either.  Russia itself is still composed of many ethnic peoples with their own cultures who desire their own place in the sun that they lost after the Muscovy Russians started expanding in the 14^th century with the decline of the Mongols.  If today’s ‘greater Russia’ does not provide its citizens scattered over its large land area with a working economy that gives promise for future generations, then it will balkanize into political entities that will look much as they did in the 1300s.

The policy of the United States leading the western countries should be to bring an end to Russia’s thugocracy through a ‘soft landing’ similar to that which happened in 1991.  This will require 1) judicious containment by our demonstrated willingness to use military force to stop Russia’s current ‘outreach’ efforts, and 2) vigorous meddling in Russia’s internal affairs to support the oligarchs’ desire (efforts?) to topple Putin by assuring the new Russian democracy legitimate standing in the community of nations when they demonstrate themselves to be nation of laws.  A sweetener could be our assurance to the oligarchs to side with Russia in its defense of eastern Siberia (where a lot of oligarchs have their extractive industries) against the inevitable attempt by China to extend its borders northward to the Arctic Ocean.

So until Russia is governed by laws, not men (which I doubt under Putin), the US has to contain and compromise the thugocracy until one of the above scenarios plays out without provoking Putin to destabilize the world with his nukes.  This may involve coordinating with the Russian military to allow his and his family’s extraction to a life of opulent exile.  The preceding may be considered part and parcel of Rebane Doctrine as memorialized in these pages.

I hope that our left-leaning readers can understand the above response as to whether or not I “run with the crowd” of RR readers who show little concern for Russia’s now demonstrated inability to either change or influence any American votes.  In the meantime, we should do all possible to minimize their meddling in our affairs and maximize our ability to meddle in theirs.  Stopping criminal leftwing leakers in our security services would be a good place to start.