Rebane's Ruminations
December 2016
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George Rebane

Voice from behind the curtain – ‘Pay no attention to the correlation.’

Crime&Dems

[update]  A reader has pointed out that the above crime map is inaccurate and cites and article in the 16nov16 WaPo (here) that claims to present better data in the map below.  The article’s conclusion is italicized.

Crime&Dems2

The violent crime map shows clusters of counties with high rates in South Carolina, Florida, the Memphis area and New Mexico. Several of the clusters are in rural areas where a small number of crimes may generate a relatively high crime rate because there are few people living there. … The latest data available is from 2014. Reported crime rates for some large cities have gone up over the past two years. … The National Archive of Criminal Justice Data generates the county-level crime summaries from FBI data that is reported by police agencies.  In rural areas, a county may have one police agency. But large urban counties may have several cities with their own police departments, as well as county-wide agencies. And statewide police agencies may also handle reported crimes. The NACJD adjusts the data for agencies that only report for part of the year and distributes incidents from statewide agencies to local counties by population.

With this conclusion and upon closer examination of the WaPo map, I will let my opening statement stand.

Nevada County Voices has dropped RR from its community website listings.  Since its inception RR has enjoyed coverage by having its recent posts listed and linked in the site’s ‘Right Wing’ column.  The reason for the change is not apparent, especially since RR has always lauded this informative site edited by Dr Anna Haynes.  To be frank, the site and its editor are definitely of the Left persuasion – for example, there is no equivalent listing of ‘Left Wing’ sites.  Apparently all the remainder of the listed sites have no ideological slant or bias that is apparent to Dr Haynes.  Perhaps the removal of RR is part and parcel of the local Left’s perennial call to silence my public voice and involvement as part of their overall crusade to deny opposing opinions and viewpoints a place in the community forum.  In any case it was fun while it lasted, and we will continue featuring Nevada County Voices in the Our Links panel on the right.  [update]  Oops!  My tears flowed too soon; RR has been reinstated in its usual slot.  Now the only nit I have left to pick is my envy of fellow blogger Mr Todd Juvinall (Sierra Dragon’s Breath) who enjoys having the last ten of his posts being listed while the rest of us are limited to five max.  Oh well, Anna always did like Todd the best.

RoboVote – a new tool for capturing group preferences and making group decisions.  For years I have designed, purveyed, and used customized decision support systems, especially the kind that help extract useful information from groups of people engaged in some common pursuit.  Recently a team of AI researchers at Harvard released RoboVote (more here and here), a free AI-based, online tool to aid in performing such functions in an optimal manner.  I am recommending its consideration to organizations to which I belong.  Take a look at it and you will want to do the same.

[update]  The WSJ reports “U.S. Factories Are Working Again; Factory Workers, Not So Much.  Donald Trump plans to reignite industrial job growth, but many low-skilled former factory workers are frozen out.”  As has been reported here for years, the return of manufacturing to the US does not mean that an equivalent (to previous years) jobs will be returning.  Does no one understand the serious nature of growing systemic unemployment with the acceleration of technology?  Why is this always a surprise and a recent discovery by some maven or other?

[19dec16 update]  Today’s Union informs us that we now have a permanent group of local progressives organized to become the perennial protesters of the Republican controlled (but liberal bureaucratized) federal government.  They call themselves ‘Resistance U.S.’, formed to “promote progressive values and ideas”, and appear visibly uninformed about our Constitution and what happened last month.  For example, as a local embodiment of Moonbeam’s Minions, they seek to “Restore Democracy”, a form of government on these shores that never was and wisely was never intended.  We will revisit their demonstrations from time to time as they successfully illustrate what divides us. (more here)

[21dec16 update]

FakeNews

Posted in , , ,

284 responses to “Scattershots – 18dec16 (updated 21dec16)”

  1. fish Avatar
    fish

    “Nevada County Voices has dropped RR from its community website listings.”

    Yuck….you’re better off……I’ve been here on and off for a little over three years and I think I’ve been to <i.Nevada County Voices one other time…..what a muddled mess!
    Looks like the internet equivalent of the inside of a womans purse!

    Like

  2. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Speaking of the Toddster looks like he has a problem with Trumps assessment of the CIA since Todd was a strong believer of the WMD assessment offered as a justification of the war in Iraq. To quote the TODDER “What a hoot”
    Trump has so far dismissed the allegations and mocked the intelligence community. “These are the same people that said Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction,” he tweeted. Trump’s stance has created a rift between himself and several top Republicans who say any possible interference by Russian hackers needs to be fully investigated.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-china-us-drone_us_58554353e4b0390447090ef9

    Like

  3. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Todd
    Now that Todd is born again anti war we can at least agree with Trump that the war in Iraq was a huge mistake based on faulty intelligence and a disastrous turn in our foreign policy. So Todd at least we agree on Trumps view that the war was a total mistake based on lies. See we can agree on something.
    Blitzer: “Impeaching him?”
    Trump: “Absolutely, for the war, for the war.”
    Blitzer: “Because of the conduct of the war.”
    Trump: “Well, he lied. He got us into the war with lies. And, I mean, look at the trouble Bill Clinton got into with something that was totally unimportant. And they tried to impeach him, which was nonsense. [N.B. “They” did impeach him.] And yet, Bush got us into this horrible war with lies, by lying, by saying they had weapons of mass destruction, by saying all sorts of things that turned out not to be true.”
    Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/439636/donald-trump-george-w-bush-and-lies

    Like

  4. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Its nice to PE is back on his Bushmania track. 😉

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  5. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Not about Bush Don it’s all about Trump and something I agree with him about. that’s a good thing don’t you think. Something we have in common. I’m sure you’re anti war as well. No electing that war monger Clinton this time around.

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  6. George Rebane Avatar

    PaulE 1155am – Do you consider believing a (generally accredited source) at some time in the past, to be inconsistent with not believing the source after new information (say, discrediting the source) has been received in the interval? Or are you one of those who holds that once you believe a source, you must always believe the source else you are irrational or worse, a hypocrite?

    Like

  7. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    I mean it’s amazing that the Republicans elected someone to the Presiedncy that cdalled the previous Republican President an outright liar as well as taking Strong opposition to such strong Republican causes as TPP and NAFTA. this was a true revolution within the Republican party and I commend them for it. Much more adventuresome than the Dems which is the main reason they lost.
    I’m still a Johnson guy but he was remarkably wimpish this time.

    Like

  8. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    That’s “called the previous Republican …”

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  9. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Wasn’t Trump a Democrat in 2008? The Clintons even went to his last wedding and he was donating money to the Clinton cause.
    Toddster, Pubbies. Paul, do you miss your elementary school playground?
    At least you’re off your “majority vote” monomania.
    Let’s see where we are:
    1) no one thinks there’s a chance Trump will lose any significant number of Electors, and Pelosi’s daughter has been formally denied the intelligence briefing focused on the dastardly Russians that she wanted before casting her Electoral vote tomorrow.
    2) No specific action of the Russkies has been linked to any specific information.
    3) No wikileak has been identified as false.
    4) No allegation of ballot or counting tampering by any agent, Russian or other, has been identified.
    5) Multiple people with good reputations have been adamant the WikiLeaks were from a leak withing US intelligence, not the Russians.
    Much sound and fury signifying nothing. Paul, are you ready to accept Trump as the lawful president-elect?

    Like

  10. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Who cares if PE, Huma, Weiner, Brazil, Podesta accept the result that will come formally tomorrow. It we be done and over, live with it, President Trump is the reality you will have no choice but to live with. 😉

    Like

  11. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Pul Emery, you really are a can short of a six-pack. Your posts here naming me are your own fabrication. I could care less that Trump has his position on WMD’s. I am not a snge issue person like you are with your Bush Derangement Syndrome or marijuana. I bet you think FDR knew the Japs were gonna attack Pearl Harbor too. So I have asked you before to not put things on paper I have not said. You now have TDS or Trump Derangement Syndrome. A good dose of balls will clear that up.

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  12. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Careful with those maps GeorgeR. The left will have one that shows more welfare cases in red state than blue states and they will make some wild ass assumptions. LOL!

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  13. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Oh and I never asked Haynes to put me on her site. She just did it. And I guess she likes that I am a flamethrower as she puts more of my posts there. I see your nemesis Pelline is failing to read this article correctly as well. The man is really qquite odd.

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  14. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Sorry Todd I was just looking for something we might have in common. Not even agreeing with Trump policies will work. I think you have EDS. Emery Derangement Syndrome.
    Sure Gregory, Trump is the guy. I’m just not happy with it as you appear to be. His policies have no connection with any aspect of Libertarian thought so why are you so gooey about him?

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  15. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Paul Emery, no I am not concerned about a syndrome. But you sure are out there. Find that “grassy knoll” guy yet. You are a single issue lover and I am much more universal. Big difference in the real worls.

    Like

  16. Walt Avatar

    Maybe Paul can explain why LIBS tolerate so much crime. (the maps say it all.)

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  17. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    The Sunday night mystery, will the Dark Lord of Liberal Lament Land berate Frisch for ‘don;t’ ? 😉

    Like

  18. George Rebane Avatar

    stevenfrisch 450pm – If you can give me an updated map of relative crime rates across the country produced by some federal law enforcement agency, I’ll gladly revise the above post with that map. And thanks in advance. (In this case, please don’t limit yourself to WaPo’s version.)

    Like

  19. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    That didn’t take long. Pull out the Che tee shirts, things are back to normal.
    https://www.rt.com/usa/370698-calexit-california-embassy-moscow/

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  20. Walt Avatar

    Bill. That just gives the State of Jefferson idea added credibility. ” See? These are the lunatics we have been warning you about. And you wondered why?”

    Like

  21. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Why waste time wondering what Trump might do. He is not President nor has his State Department advised him or gave Trump counsel on Russia. Paul always gets wound up like a kid on Christmas Eve waiting for Santa. We just don’t know how Trump will handle the Obama/Clinton cluster in the Middle East. Backing the Muslim Brotherhood to do regime change in Egypt, Libya, and Syria has made a mess of things. A bloodbath, a needless bloodbath. For what? Assad won, Russia is now stronger than ever as a direct result of Obama/Clinton polices, and Putin is stronger and more popular than ever at home in Mother Russia. Geeze.
    Heck, we got Libya to play nice and behave until Obama stepped in and messed up a good thing. In Syria, even the British Parliament blocked Great Britain from going along that horrible disaster. Now the rebels we backed in Syria are burning the evacuation buses that Assad provided for safe exit and passage (per the cease fire) of both civilians and rebel fighters. The side we backed torched the buses! We backed Sunnis and ISIS is Sunni. What a disaster.
    Wait and see. Yep, I give Trump a blank check until he is sworn in as President and sitting behind his desk in the Tower. I hope he stays out of the Swamp known as Washington DC.
    Meanwhile, Obama and Kerry-Heinz are in charge.
    https://www.facebook.com/RowdyConservatives/photos/a.217983685002343.55586.217926015008110/979072252226812/?type=3&theater
    https://www.facebook.com/RowdyConservatives/photos/a.217983685002343.55586.217926015008110/979115615555809/?type=3&theater

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  22. stevenfrisch Avatar
    stevenfrisch

    Posted by: George Rebane | 18 December 2016 at 06:34 PM
    Funny George, that map is embedded in the link to the WP story I posted….what is wrong with the WP version, it is based on the National Archive of Criminal Justice data at the US DOJ using data reported by the FBI. It’s kind of t he gold standard of sources.

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  23. George Rebane Avatar

    stevenfrisch 807pm – Posted; thanks Steve.

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  24. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    SF at 8:14 – Data from the FBI? Gold standard. But I thought the FBI was not to be trusted. Or was that the CIA. Gettin’ kinda’ hard to keep up with all the talk from the left about who’s in and who’s out. Be nice if maybe the left could do a huddle and come up with a straight story about who we’re supposed to believe.
    Anyway, everyone knows that Chicago is crime free. And all those other big cities. It’s those podunk little towns where all the crime is. Yessir. Ol’ Andy from Mayberry could barely contain the mayhem that went on.
    All the rioting and looting and murders and what all.
    Good to see Steven set us straight about how it’s Lodi and Goshen that is causin’ all the fuss and bother in this country. So if you hear about how the fire depts in some big city won’t even go into certain neighborhoods because of violence, just tell ’em that slick Mr Frisch is callin’ their bluff. He says it’s all baloney.

    Like

  25. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Paul, of the two candidates on the ballot with a chance of winning, Trump is the only one who would nominate Justices closer to Scalia than Ginsberg. Two or three of those would cripple the court for 30 years.
    It isn’t “gooey” to prefer a Supreme Court that pays attention to the text of the Constitution… why are you so “gooey” about Hillary?
    Right now, what we’ve been seeing is a partisan witch hunt trying to invalidate the election. I get it, Democrats want a do-over. It isn’t constitutional and it isn’t going to happen unless 37 faithless GOP electors take the radical Democratic Party line.
    Good luck with that.
    Here’s a libertarian line for you:

    Now, we’re shifting into our Russia Panic phase. The CIA claims that the Russians attempted to interfere in the election to assist Trump. This seems wholly plausible, considering Trump’s favorable view of Russia President Vladimir Putin, and it should be fully investigated. There’s still debate among U.S. intelligence services about the Russian hacks, but that hasn’t stopped some Democrats from questioning the patriotism of those who refuse to accept the hysterical version of events. Well, unless the Russians transformed Hillary Clinton into an unlikable, ideologically malleable, corrupt, inveterate fabricator over the past 30 years, the claims that the Russians stole an election should, like all other panics this season, be received with a giant dose of skepticism.
    Of course, there will always be overarching theories about why Republicans win elections—like assuming half the country is racist. The left is so enveloped by its identity politics that it may not understand that the other half of the country is sick of it. While I’m no fan of Trump, Democrats have been demanding that I panic over every Cabinet pick, every statement and every event. It’s not normal.

    http://reason.com/archives/2016/12/16/the-5-stages-of-losing-an-election-to-do

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  26. stevenfrisch Avatar
    stevenfrisch

    Posted by: Scott Obermuller | 18 December 2016 at 09:56 PM
    I don’t think that anyone is claiming the crime statistics provided by the FBI and local law enforcement and tested and compiled by the National Archive of Criminal Justice have been cooked—the data is from the FBI but the statistical analysis and mapping is from the DOJ.
    The point I was making Scott is that there is very little correlation between a 2013 ‘crime map’ [see de-bunk below] and a 2016 electoral map, particularly when one digs down at the local level, and no causation. In our own back yards we can see that in California many high crime areas voted for Trump and the same is true across much of rural America.
    The use of those two maps was intended to imply high crime areas and people voted Democratic and low crime ones Republican, but when one looks at the data that is simply not true.
    It is an intentional false narrative.
    I could do the same thing the map George posted did with a map of “makers and takers” by the way–urban areas that voted Democratic contribute more in taxes than they receive in services, rural areas that voted Republican receive more– the Democrats are the makers and the Republicans are the takers. Does that mean Republicans are actually secretly the socialist government ‘welfare queens’?
    Or I could do that map for opioid use and drug addiction in America, and guess what–the areas with the lowest per capita rates of addiction are urban and Democratic and the highest rates of addition are rural and Republican–does that mean that Republicans are drug addled middle aged white men with erectile dysfunction and periodic constipation who drive white pick up trucks?

    There is no relation and I know it.

    By the way, even the meme map that George posted is inaccurate–the second map is not a ‘2013 crime map’, it is an altered copy of the 2012 electoral map RELABELED as the “2013 crime” map–thus the entire premise of the comparison is fake.

    Like

  27. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Steven – you can cook the numbers any way you like. Everyone knows the areas controlled by Dems are far more likely to be areas that most any one in the world trying to raise a family would rather not live in. Of course there are exceptions, (left wing white lunatics that think they deserve to be beaten by criminals) but the rule is pretty clear. The real estate values in different neighborhoods bear this out. Again, there are exceptions such as we see along the Cali coast. But nation wide, it’s simply safer and more peaceful to live in a Red area. I note that a lot of the rural high crime areas of your WaPo map coincide with areas of high amounts of Indian reservations. Drug addiction rates can be high in areas of high unemployment no matter rural or urban.
    The bald fact of the matter is that the dems have had decades (and billions of fed dollars) to work their magic on society and it’s a complete failure as far as lifting the average poor person out of poverty. But it’s worked a treat for the Dem power structure. And that’s all the Dems care about. Power.

    Like

  28. stevenfrisch Avatar
    stevenfrisch

    My point Scott is that the frigging ‘map’ is a fraud. You may be happy to use or countenance fraud to support your point, but having the strong mid-western values I have, I would prefer facts.

    Like

  29. L Avatar
    L

    Then ‘splain me why the governor of VA was in such a hurry to restore the civil rights (voting) of resident felons? L

    Like

  30. stevenfrisch Avatar
    stevenfrisch

    Posted by: L | 19 December 2016 at 07:44 AM
    Besides that point that this comment has nothing to do with the original point of my response: that THE MAP IS A FRAUD…I will answer it.
    There are currently 10 states that may permanently eliminate voting rights as a consequence of a felony conviction. There are 38 states that restore those rights after some combination of serving the term or incarceration, completing parole or completing a period of probation. They are 2 states that do not restrict voting rights for felons at all–Maine and Vermont.
    Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe signed an order moving Virginia from the column that permanently restricts voting rights to the column of 20 states that restore voting rights for felons who have completed their term of incarceration, parole and probation. That order is being challenged in court.
    The states that allow the restoration of voting rights after incarceration include: West Virginia, Wisconsin, North & South Dakota, North & South Carolina, Utah, Texas, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Ohio, Nebraska, Missouri, Montana, Michigan, Louisiana, Kansas, Indiana, Idaho, Georgia, Idaho, Arkansas and Alaska…all states that voted for Donald J. Trump.

    Like

  31. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: stevenfrisch | 19 December 2016 at 08:51 AM
    ….THE MAP IS A FRAUD…I will answer it.

    Wow….looks like somebody dumped a big ol bucket of Wikipedia on L’s head! No real need to answer L’s question…..there’s no mystery as to why Terry extended voting rights to felons this year.

    Like

  32. George Rebane Avatar

    It’s hard to countenance that there still are educated people who deny that population centers with the highest incidents of crime (especially of the violent kind) are and have been under Democrat control for decades. In what smaller towns in middle America is it unsafe to walk the streets at night? Now ask that same question of entire sections of Dem controlled large urban areas.

    Like

  33. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    I thought our Jerry Brown was trying to allow incarcerated felons the vote.

    Like

  34. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    I guess I am a bit confused about the maps. If you overlay one over the other aren’t teh results pretty much the same. And I recall Nevada City was judged as a violent city with two murders per capita, in the whole country!

    Like

  35. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    from Frisch, who just has to add a fact-free insult to his posts: “You may be happy to use or countenance fraud to support your point.”
    Note that Frisch can not demonstrate in any way that I ‘use or countenance fraud’ so he attempts a crude and dishonest implication.
    “By the way, even the meme map that George posted is inaccurate–the second map is not a ‘2013 crime map’, it is an altered copy of the 2012 electoral map RELABELED as the “2013 crime” map–thus the entire premise of the comparison is fake.”
    And the map that Frisch shows is an ‘altered’ and re-labeled map of the US. It’s just one that he prefers. You can play with statistics to make any map you please. Reported crimes, actual crimes, various levels of violence, what definition you use for a certain level of violence, rates of violence vs outright numbers, what years were included in the statistics gathering, etc.
    But Steve gets a pat on the head and a participation star on his forehead.
    Oh – about the issue concerning the Virginia gov’s orders. Frisch is leaving out a few salient points. By accident, I’m sure. The citizens were not allowed to vote on this touchy subject. It involved a mere 200K felons. The orders were just in time for the election and all of the individuals involved received ballots with return pre-addressed envelopes.
    He may as well have ordered the ballots to be pre-marked straight party ticket while he was at it.
    Of course it was an open and bald power play to boost the Dems chances on election day. If the majority of those felons were likely to have voted R, Terry never even would have considered the action.
    But I’m sure that Frisch just forgot all of this.

    Like

  36. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Yes ScottO, he just forgot. LOL!

    Like

  37. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Todd
    Grassy knoll? What an original thought. Deep thinking Todd.

    Like

  38. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    The charge of fraud reminds me of the overall “fact check” mentality that is not a good thing.
    A fraud, like other lies, requires the intent to deceive. While that map may be in error and may have been fraudulently represented by someone, it is also possible that someone, with a particular notion of crime they wanted represented, came up with that map. It could also be they were fiddling with what notion in order to get a map that looked a lot like the vote results… but that wouldn’t fit “fraud”.
    Similarly, some “journalist” (Candy Crawley 4 years ago comes to mind) “fact checking” a politician may well be even more wrong than the politician they’re playing gotcha with, or working with a set of assumptions that lead to a different answer.
    In short, we have many fewer lies and frauds than are charged.
    In the news, I’m sure we are all happy there is at least one Elector voting their conscience: NPR reports a Clinton Elector in Maine has cast a vote for Bernie.

    Like

  39. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Paul Emery | 19 December 2016 at 10:32 AM
    Did you forget to take your meds today?

    Like

  40. Paul emery Avatar
    Paul emery

    How original Todd. One time you were somewhat entertaining and clever. You’re just a shell of your former self.

    Like

  41. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    No Paul Emery. I am smart and erudite and well liked. You, not so much. I do feel sorry for your slip though. And as usual, you did not take your meds.

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  42. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    I see the Frisch and Pelline favorite people just murdered the Russian Ambassador and many Christmas goers in Germany. Ah, the religion of peace on displat again. Maybe the local lovelies can place a wreath?

    Like

  43. Tom Odachi Avatar
    Tom Odachi

    Todd,
    Your use of the racial epithet, “Jap” (18 Dec 2016 @ 1:53 PM)
    “I bet you think FDR knew the Japs were gonna attack Pearl Harbor too.”, as well as in your blog describing drivers in “Jap cars”, needs to be challenged by somebody.
    The term “Jap” is a racial slur that should offend readers in our community. As a 4th generation American of Japanese ancestry, I find your use of the word shocking to say the least. I wouldn’t expect that language from a former County Supervisor.

    Like

  44. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    @12:10 pm
    Wonder what the motive was? I bet they Left as good friends.

    Like

  45. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Tom Odachi, do you deny the term Jap is contained in the name “Japanese”? My dad was at Okinawa and was attacked everyday by Jap kamikaze fighters. He used the term for a decriptive reason, short for Japanese. Now if I had said “nip” or “slant” I would be justly chastised. By I am not a racist so take your PC crap elsewhere.

    Like

  46. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Tom Odachi, while I sympathize, when referring to the members of the Emperor’s government and the Japanese military who performed a sneak attack on Pearl Harbor, “Jap” is probably appropriate.
    I’ve had friends who were guests of the USA at Manzanar during WWII, but they weren’t Japanese. They were born here.

    Like

  47. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Todd, my dad spent a year of hia service in WWII in an Army hospital suffering from Dengue Fever picked up in the Pacific Islands, and suffered a bout every few years for the rest of his life. I can’t remember him ever using “Jap” outside of discussions of the war years.

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