George Rebane

[This is the transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 4 May 2016.  See also notice of another upcoming KVMR community affairs broadcast.]

Last night in Indiana Trump got more than 53% of the Republican vote, again handily beating Cruz and Kasich both of whom have ended their campaigns.  But on the Democrat side Queen Hillary got broadsided by Comrade Bernie by what in elections is called a landslide – 53% to 47%.  Going forward to the Democrat machine controlled convention, socialist Sanders’ victory will continue as the least prickly burr under Clinton’s blanket.  With Trump’s win it is almost certain that The Donald will be running against Hillary this November.  I’ll cover the ‘almost certain’ part later.

The nomination of Trump in Cleveland will be historic in that the Republicans will then place their first rogue candidate on the ballot.  A nominee seen as a flamboyant businessman with a very large ego whose campaign was from the beginning considered a comedic fluke.  Yet less than a year later Trump has ended the presidential ambitions of 17 capable competitors, of whom all but two are experienced elected politicians.  And he did it by breaking every rule about how one should run a national campaign.  Now if the past is any indication, he will continue his run in a manner not yet seen in American politics.  We all can expect a riveting road to November.

Today the Sanders/Trump supporters demonstrate that a good fraction of Americans believe their federal government is broken and cannot be repaired with the usual changing of the guard.  Each candidate prescribes a very different regimen to make things right, and in that their strident populist messages confirm that America is severely, if not terminally, divided into two irreconcilable socio-political cohorts.

But to win, Trump will have to overcome an entrenched demographic that has given the Democrats an electoral college handicap for almost two generations. Since Democrats outnumber Republicans in our large welfare-laden and mismanaged cities, Trump will have to win over the lion’s share of the so-called independents.  And his only tool for doing that is the one he shares with Bernie – the promise that some form of trade isolationism will bring back or create new jobs.  But neither candidate has revealed how they would invoke such a magical spell on the land.  Therefore, so long as Hillary can stay on the ticket, her pivot toward the center and promise of running the country as Obama 3.0 should then put her in the White House.

All this analysis is remarkable in that, according to the polls, Democrats know that Hillary has always been a scheming liar and incompetent at every real project she has undertaken.  But her ineptness, corruptions, and scandals are a matter of record, already accepted, and now forgotten.  The remaining Damocles sword that still hangs over her head is the Comey Vote.  And you can bet the ranch that Trump will do everything he can to goad the FBI director to cast that vote as early as possible, even as the bureau continues its investigation of Clinton’s mishandling of classified materials.

If Comey delivers already established evidence to the Dept of Justice calling for Hillary’s indictment, she will instantly be dead meat as a candidate; both Trump and Sanders will see to that, regardless of what the DoJ then will do.  Even Obama’s anticipated pardon will not help her.  And if Comey somehow concludes that there is not enough evidence to indict her, then I foresee a national scandal fed by the inevitable FBI leaks and mass resignations.  There will definitely be street protests against what millions will see as irrefutable proof of Washington corrupt and broken.

But what if Comey capitulates, surrenders his reputation as a straight shooter, and just keeps his lips sealed as we head to November?  Then I believe it’s anyone’s guess as to how effective will be Trump’s campaign invective that will paint Hillary as part and parcel of a demonstrably dysfunctional federal government which she as president will have no choice but to maintain its stone walls and continue business as usual.

My name is Rebane, and I also expand on this and related themes on Rebane’s Ruminations where the transcript of this commentary is posted with relevant links, and where such issues are debated extensively.  However my views are not necessarily shared by KVMR.  Thank you for listening.

[Notice]  KVMR News Director Paul Emery and I had an extended conversation with Nevada County Sheriff Keith Royal about Measure W, the upcoming voter initiative that will define permitted medical marijuana grows in the county.  KVMR will broadcast this conversation on 5 May 2016 at 6PM.  See also previous RR posts on Measure W.