George Rebane
The short term market is certifiably insane. Yellen will not be able to avoid a rate raise forever, we all know that. And yes, the centrally planned Chinese economy has predictably blown a tire (progressives call your office), but some people still believe that they are smart/lucky enough to bail just before Yellen ups the discount rate by ¼% and the market does its predictable swoon before going back to basics. So in this anticipatory period the so-called range trading investors are playing the jittery game, and the algorithmic high frequency traders are making out like bandits milking the oscillating price patterns that they have discovered. Come on Dr Yellen, do it!
The Donald has passed his peak, and is now on what we engineers call ‘the back side of the power curve’ – the higher he tries to kick his ‘RPM’ the lower sinks his ‘power’ in the polls. Some of our commenters have giddily anticipated this, and I believe one worthy even nailed the top. I predict that the trail down from Mt Trump will be even more entertaining than the climb up, save for the heartburn it will cause the Republican leadership wondering whether he will renege and go for a third party run.
Putin continues to toy with Obama. This administration is so butt stupid on foreign policy that they continue to think that Putin is in Syria to help Assad or fight ISIS or … . Putin’s geo-strategic move is to project Russian power into the Mediterranean and the Levant. He needs to do this to become a permanent power player in the future of the region no matter who is in Damascus. And the requirement for that is to get his stuff past the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. Establishing bases in Latakia and Tartus satisfies that requirement. He now owns the Syrian seaboard. And Team Obama remains clueless, still attempting to tell Putin that he has made a “mistake” in putting together a coalition with Syria, Iran, and now Iraq while already entertaining the Saudis and the gulf states.
[update] Election Polling: When ‘Who Will Win?’ Beats ‘Who Do You Like?’ Microsoft's 'PredictWise' project has incorporated that question into its crowd-source prediction markets. This is something of which I have been a long time proponent. The main argument to support the thesis is that "asking people who they expect will win, instead of who they prefer, 'grabs a much larger slice of people’s experience and knowledge, including a whole range of idiosyncratic facts' that are otherwise impossible to quantify". (more here)
[1oct15 update] Elected NJUHSD trustee Ms Linda Campbell was censured by her colleagues on the Board of Trustees. RR has been no fan of Ms Campbell’s, not only because of her uncouth public behavior, but more importantly because of her ignorance of public education that continues to punish Nevada County’s youth. (more here and here)
[2oct15 update] Let me see if I got it right about the idiot in the WH. Russia is bombing crap out of anti-Assad rebels that we support, and Iran is now using Iraq as a staging area for its ground troops to support Russia's Syrian initiatives. And in response Feckless Lidder on Pennsylvania Ave goes on the air to "chastise" Russia for making a "big mistake" and being on the wrong side of history. While no one mentions ISIS. Whatever happened to the country formerly known as the United States of America?
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