Sandbox – 3jul15

July 2015
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Sandbox – 3jul15

03 July 2015

[While the old sandbox was getting full, the comment thread on the externalities post kind of petered out and segued into looking at the externalities implied by AGW, and then it started circling the old climate change barn again. A request was made to continue it here – fair enough.

But before diving in one more time, I’d like to point out some strongly orthogonal aspects of discussing climate change cum AGW. Having ignored or not understood them in the past has led to the predictable Nowhere. Here’s a partial list –

- Verity of paleo climate records, - Verity of recent – last 50K years – climate measurements,

- Definitions of earth’s atmospheric temperature,

- Definitions of sea levels,

- Data handling methods to create a usable sets of inputs to models,

- Knowledge of climate physics – terrestrial and extra-terrestrial – viz sub-processes and their large scale integration (e.g. the earth’s carbon cycle, cosmic rays impact on cloud cover),

- General Circulation Models (GCMs) – their design, programming, and testing,

- Validating GCMs – data sets used, performance criteria, selection/tuning of model constants, sub-model transfer functions and stabilities (bifurcations to chaos), sensitivity to inputs, …

- Interpretation of GCM outputs – obtaining reliable variance measures, accept/reject criteria, …

– Understanding the impact of human interventions on climate (let alonge AGW).

In a reasonable world (not the one we live in), debating climate change between people who understand the science, math, and modeling (of complex, stochastic, dynamic systems), and those who don’t is not possible. One side can cite and interpret the technical literature, and other side can only appeal to ‘consensus science’ or my scientist(s) are smarter than your scientist(s). Nevertheless, in today’s world such debates are exciting, important, and even fun – each side viewing the other as unredeemable troglodytes. When the participants are tired of finally insulting the quality of their opponents’ double helixes, and the debate “is heard no more: it (was again) a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing”, nevertheless but advising public policies penned by grossly ignorant and hubristic central planners. Have at it. gjr]

Posted in Comment Sandbox

245 responses to “Sandbox – 3jul15”

Todd Juvinall

07 July 2015

Jonnie, tell us your business experience. Are you afraid to tell us you have none.
California is a mess. I don’t believe the government stats or their lackey’s stats. I just heard Gov Brown tell us all how wonderful it is to have all those illegals here and how great it is to spend our billions on them. The state is a loony bin. And with high unemployment.

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Steven Frisch

07 July 2015

I love the “I don’t trust government statistics” meme…..if the data is contrary to my belief the data must be wrong.
https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=state:ST0600000000000:ST4800000000000&fdim_y=seasonality:S&hl=en&dl=en#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:S&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=state:ST0600000000000:ST0400000000000:ST1700000000000:ST1200000000000:ST5300000000000&ifdim=country&tstart=631699200000&tend=1428390000000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

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Bill Tozer

07 July 2015

Well, let’s look under the hood, shall we? CA has one of the highest median incomes among the 50 states, yet is one of the most unaffordable (expensive) states to live. Affordability is like a Toosie Roll. The more you chew on it, the longer it gets.

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Bill Tozer

07 July 2015

Furthermore and so on. To be consistent, this resourced link may or may not be related to the current Buy or Fry thread, As Gomer Pyle would say, “Surprise, surprise, surprise!”
https://www.facebook.com/USAPatriots/photos/pb.133154313381817.-2207520000.1436262622./947577521939488/?type=3&theater

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Todd Juvinall

07 July 2015

People who own their own business and go our of business or BK are not in the unemployment numbers. People who give up looking are not in the unemployment numbers. Young black men have a huge unemployment number. California has 11% of America’s population and over 30% of all welfare cases. I suggest any doubter start looking at the “statistics” on how many people of working age are on some government programs. California regulations are the worst in the country for starting and maintaining a business.

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John

07 July 2015

Frisch, I am surprised that someone who purports to be an advocate for business cannot, or will not, acknowledge that AB32 has been a complete disaster for small business throughout California. Put aside your fairly stable income stream from the taxpayers for a moment, and try to put yourself in the shoes of a small independent trucker who has purchased a $300,000 truck to drive, hauling whatever you can around the state trying to make a living.The truck costs as much as your house, which you have mortgaged to buy it. Things are going ok until an unelected bureaucrat from CARB whose salary you are helping to pay, decrees that your truck no longer meets the new emission standards and you need to get a new one. The real problem is that your perfectly good truck still has $150,000 in debt, secured by your house, and you can’t sell it because it is no longer legal to operate. You can’t buy a new truck, can’t sell the old truck, what options are left. If you deny this has happened to many, many, many, small businesses throughout California you are not as smart or honest as I think you are. My question is “what has Sierra Business Council done to help these small businessmen”?

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Jon

07 July 2015

My entire point was to make John back up his wild, exaggerating statement about the many local companies shut down because of AB32. Simple solution John- apologize for wildly overstating a problem and exaggerating the large number of local firms put out of business by AB32, as the “last straw”, the first straw, or any straw. I cannot locate a single firm. The companies I contract with are still around, the ones I know about are still around. John, just don’t exaggerate. Thats all.

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Steven Frisch

07 July 2015

I for one would love to see the list of the many “who have closed their doors” of the “dozens of Nevada County small businesses” who have faced the CARB diesel regulations.
First, all producers of diesel powered equipment sold in California have been required to comply with new CARB regulations since 2007, so the approach that John suggested in an earlier post and excoriated CARB for not taking IS ACTUALLY the approach that CARB took.
Second, the emission regulations which were amongst the first to be completed after AB 32 was passed, was phased in over a 5 year period, and had a series of ‘hardship’ waivers allowing for people who had a hard time complying to take even longer.
Third, if one is having a hard time complying they can apply for funds through the Air Quality Management District or the Air Pollution Control District where they are set up to help subsidize compliance. If anyone in Nevada County is having a hard time and needs help with filling out either the compliance forms or the applications your local Small Business Development Center would be happy to help. 🙂
Finally, for people operating heavy equipment the cost of retrofitting equipment has been wildly exaggerated by opponents of the regulation. In most cases the cost for a PM filter system for a large diesel engine (like a D-9 bulldozer) is in the $10,000-$20,000 range. If the equipment was produced after 2007 and sold in California it probably already has the filtration system it needs. Since the price of a relatively new CAT D-9 is about $750,000 that does not seem all that unreasonable. Actually that is slightly less than 3% of the cost of the equipment. For a typical older diesel semi truck tractor, say your $300,000 example John, the cost is about $5,000, or 1.5% of the cost.
I am sure there are outlier examples, and I am sure we will hear them.
Ultimately for those opposing the regulation it always comes down to one simple argument: my cost to comply with regulations is more important that your externalized costs of air quality which I don’t really care about.
I won’t respond here on the ‘what has SBC done’ question, John. If you want me to answer that question personally drop me a line at sfrisch@sierrabusiness.org and I will meet with you in person to chat.
By the way, if you have friends who feel they have been harmed by this regulation, and they want help complying, I would be HAPPY to help.

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Todd Juvinall

07 July 2015

Jonnie, give us your bona fides. Frisch did. My goodness no guts no glory.

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John

07 July 2015

“Jon”, compare any two phone books, say 2010 and 2015. The small time service providers who use internal combustion engines in their business are not there any longer, simple fact. The real problem here is that neither you nor Frisch have a small business regulated by AB32,so you really don’t know what you are talking about. Frisch’s “stats” about the cost of retrofits are simply CARB talking points. I challenge either of you to speak to any surviving small business and ask them if AB32 is good or bad for the California economy. Don’t take it from me, ask them yourself, but you appear unwilling to do that. Instead you chug the kool-aid and spew data you know nothing about. Call anyone who has actually written a check to pay for this legislation, that will tell the real tale.
Frisch, the simple fact that you will not publicly disclose what Sierra Business Council has done to help one single business says it all! Administering the PG&E rebate program does not qualify as “help” to a small business. Why is it that you cannot name a single business that you have actually helped? If you are doing all of these wonderful things, why don’t you want the world to know?

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George Rebane

07 July 2015

StevenF 706am – To many of us CARB is an agenda driven bureaucracy that has particularly a bad reputation with the way it produced and promoted AB32 with its science, ‘scientists’, and even cost accounting. (I remember Mary Nichols’ presentation of hoaky ozone related data at a BoS meeting years back, data which I was able to contend then and there with the lady and supervisors present.) In any event, since you are very involved with AB32 matters, could you point us to another corroborating source, or even one that sees AB32’s impact differently (and therefore one that you would discredit)? Thanks.

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George Rebane

07 July 2015

re John’s 918am – Kudos to John on the civil phrasing of his press of Mr Frisch without resorting to ad hominems. Questioning the operation and/or effectiveness of a NGO, company, agency, … and the relevant experience of its staff is fair game. But we can do all this without bringing in factors about an individual’s past or attributed motivations extraneous to his socio-political ideology, etc.
BTW, John’s 918am assumes that SBC ‘helps businesses’ within the traditional sense of such activities. This may well not be the case for this NGO in that SBC may have a wholly distinct utility function with which it measures its clients’ benefits and its own performance. I for one would be very interested in such a clarification, and that not so much as to take SBC to task – a favorite pastime in these pages 😉 – but to understand the operations of such NGOs whose purpose appears to be an extension of government agencies to monitor the private sector viz regulatory compliance and facilitate such compliance where possible.

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Todd Juvinall

07 July 2015

Many non-profits are simply gaming the system to redistribute tax money. A double whammy hit on the free market. Sierra Fund, and the rest are a huge drag on the country and the tax payers.

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Joe Koyote

07 July 2015

The whole pollution issue, whether it’s diesel exhaust, harmful pesticides, dredging for gold or any number of other arenas comes down to one simple idea: Why should select individuals be able to make money while polluting the air and water that ALL of use and need to survive? Recent studies (as reported in Mother Jones) suggest that air pollution could be a causative agent in dementia, parkinsons, and other neurological diseases. Other research points to pesticides that are depleting the bee population (40% loss last year). Without bees we lose multitudes of crops. Then there are the numerous KNOWN cancer causing agents that we are exposed to on a daily basis. Where do you draw the line between profit for a few and health for the many? Yes, some small businesses who depended on combustion engines for their livelihood got economically screwed. Too bad, but so did the horse and buggy industry and the makers of tallow candles. Bloodletting used to be a treatment for disease. Times change and humanity needs to recognize its mistakes, fix what they can, and move on.
And while many readers here will piss and moan about lost jobs and over-regulation, how many have ever stopped to think about what life would be like WITHOUT many of those regulations? Does China ring a bell? How would you like to wear a gas mask when you go outside for a walk BECAUSE THE AIR IS TOO DIRTY TO BREATHE? That is what America would be like.

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Todd Juvinall

07 July 2015

JoeK, thanks for another liberal diatribe about how we should all give over our independence to the government.

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George Rebane

07 July 2015

re JoeK’s 1010am – Equating the passing of the horse/buggy and candle industries to the destruction of businesses that depend on internal combustion engines conveniently overlooks a major difference. The former were replaced in the private sector by superior technologies that allowed the functions of transport and illumination to be performed better and cheaper while supporting the formation of new industries – something known as ‘creative destruction’. The latter is simply destruction by the government gun of businesses for which no newer/better technology awaits in the wings. The progressive mind supports logic that equates the two, and hence we have the disaster of growing Leviathan.
And there also seems to be a profound misunderstanding of why China is as is. China’s government mandates growth through dirty technologies – it is a political decision and not capitalism run rampant. Mapping such behavior to America is below sophomoric. We are a free society that knows how to temper pollution generating activities through an appropriate level of regulation that was abandoned long ago. Now the Collective Chorus can only sing their Bookend Ballad of a world in which we can only have stifling regulation or no regulation at all, nothing in between is possible. If you oppose a regulation, you are immediately relegated to the Mad Max world of chaotic anarchy.
But in the end when we talk about all the studies that report on this causing that and that causing this, we still come away with the eternal conclusion – Life is the leading cause of Death. (Once more I expect their CCC to speak volumes in reply.)

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Jon

07 July 2015

John, The CARB stuff is hardly new and everyone out there now has adjusted as Steve said, some easier than others, with assistance programs as desired.
I’ve been using the same outdoor contractors that use CARB compliant equipment for almost 10 years now. Not a word about AB32 was ever spoken, and they have more business than they can handle. Hand over fist. If some small firm was undercapitalized and didn’t want to upgrade, someone else took his place for the business. Regulated Capitalism! What a concept.
I can only conclude that John flies a State of Jefferson flag at his abode. That’s fine. Ugly flag though. But again, just don’t exaggerate. Grind teeth, rant and rave about regulations, but don’t exaggerate. And perhaps a simple sincere acknowledgment of the overstatement about many firms driven out of business. Would go a long way. Thanks.

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Jon

07 July 2015

Todd, your attack now on the Sierra Fund in particular- appears to me to be centered on their long history of effectiveness, accomplishments and successfully working together with the State of CA to get things done. Getting things done while you sit in front of a computer screen and whine, whine, whine. American productivity at work.

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Todd Juvinall

07 July 2015

Jon what is your business? You appear very ignorant regarding business ans non-profits. I am assuming you are on the dole which would explain your ignorance.
The Sierra Fund is a eco group manipulating tax money for bogus make work projects. Nothing more.

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Jon

07 July 2015

Sorry then Todd, as they are not going away. So are you going to rant and rave about the Sierra Fund, SBC and other effective non-profits the rest of your days on earth? Man, move-on.

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George Rebane

07 July 2015

Jon 1140am – What exactly does ‘getting things done’ done mean? Getting things done with Sacramento has meant anything but progress to many of us over the last years. I do believe that your use of getting things done is very much agenda driven, and readers here have a variety of agendas that they support.

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Jon

07 July 2015

OK, here’s a great example of Sierra Fund working effectively with our (conservative) State Representative, State Agencies, Governor’s office, Universities and other organizations to get things done. Most average residents of our region might actually consider cleaning up after the toxic destruction of the mining era- a fairly useful endeavor. Perhaps. Just imagine this type of good work happening in the State of Jefferson…
https://reclaimingthesierra.org/

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Todd Juvinall

07 July 2015

Jonnie, what is your profession?
Glad you brought up the latest Sierra Fund boondoggle on mercury. 40,000 miners who did recreational dredging were fporced off the state’s waters by the Sierra Fund and all the lies it told about dredging. Miners were actually dredging mercury and bottling it to give the State. They were fined and some arrested for that. Then, somehow Sierra Fund got a “grant” to dredge in Combie Lake. Now what is wrong with that picture. You see jonnie, you don’t have a clue.
According to their latest (2009) annual report, 82% of all its money is from “grants”. Taxpayer funded. You libs would die of starvation if you were not on the government teet.

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Todd Juvinall

07 July 2015

Here is the link to Sierra Fund.
http://www.sierrafund.org/wp-content/uploads/2009AnnualReport.pdf

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Jon

07 July 2015

No here is an American corporation I really respect, with rare ethical principles as part of its core mission, first refusing to sell cigarettes and now taking this stand. Bravo to CVS.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/business/cvs-health-quits-us-chamber-over-stance-on-smoking.html

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George Rebane

07 July 2015

Jon 101pm – not clear about what things ‘got done’ at that conference. The report did not mention the scope of the problem addressed, who was being adversely impacted, what kind of solutions would be technically and financially feasible, who would pay, and ancillary factors like public access to a post-solution Sierra. (Raw stats on certain chemical levels at specific locations, sampled fish populations, number of abandoned mines, etc do not serve – there has to be a human impact connection, who is impacted how.) But it did look like another liberal feel-good conference contemplating one more comprehensive solution to a TBD problem.

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Todd Juvinall

07 July 2015

Jonnie will not answer our questions. He is a troll. Simple as that.

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John

07 July 2015

Isn’t it interesting that the distance and disconnect here is so wide and deep. Jon and Frisch claim to know what is best for the Sierra, yet at best have possibly hiked or fished here. They claim to know what is best for our environment as well as our economy, but in reality have barely touched either with any real depth. They argue with those who have spent decades here, boots on the ground, walking the walk. Frisch runs a group called Sierra Business Council, but cannot name a single business he has helped. George likely captured the essence of that issue when he pointed out that possibly the mission of the SBC is not to help business. If you look closely at his actions you would be inclined to believe that. Both Frisch and Jon who don’t appear to have ever run a business that is related to the issues under discussion, but instead they chug the kool-aid and parrot the talking points created by bureaucrats who have never run a pertinent business either. We have the talkers arguing with the doers, telling us how things are, from looking at life in the Sierra through the knot holes. Really a remarkable state of affairs.

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Walt

07 July 2015

At least there are two mines up and running the ECO bastards didn’t get get shut down.
Hell.. I wouldn’t be one bit surprised the ECOs “salted” the creeks with Mercury.
Never mind it naturally occurs in these here hills. It’s just one more tool to blame past, present, and future mining activities on.
Maybe jonnie can explain why Mercury shows up where it’s never been used. ( How bout it smart guy?)
We were finding it in the gravel we were digging out of hillsides down in the old Smartsville pit.
So who is to blame there jon? Fred Flintstone’s boss?

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Jon

07 July 2015

John, perhaps you should consider the approach of our local Republican Assemblyman who works happily and effectively with many of these respected non-profits to solve problems and find common ground on a multitude of issues. Much better than a SOJ, ranting, raving, head in sand approach that you and Todd seem to favor.

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Steven Frisch

07 July 2015

John you have my number and are free to give me a call. I post here as an individual. Feel free to give me a call or drop me an e-mail.

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Jon

07 July 2015

Walt, ECO “bastards”? How pleasant. Am I to assume you haven’t attended a Dale Carnegie course?
So you’re a big fan of mining? Did you catch the sad and pathetic story of so-called return to underground mining days down in Amador County with the outfit called Sutter Gold. Permits granted, facilities constructed, everyone excited, stock price pumped up high, and then, OOPS, a big fat fail on multiple levels.
Pitiful. So-called modern mining in the CA foothills is all snake oil, smoke and mirrors.

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Todd Juvinall

07 July 2015

Jon what is your business? It sounds like you are a non-profit never worked in the real world yapper. Since you are telling us about Brian Dahle, have you attended some of his workshops and/or had meetings with him? His job is to work with even liberal trolls but we don’t have to. Isn’t that great!

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Jon

07 July 2015

No Todd, Brian doesn’t have to work with the non-profits but he chooses to do so because supports their goals and their good, effective work for his region and his community. Imagine that-a Republican who gets it.

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Walt

07 July 2015

At least they gave it a good try. It’s more than what was done here.
One thing is for sure. The gold is down there, right under our feet.
IMM did their homework. Yes, it was the ECO bastards and down right liars
that kept good jobs from here.
So.. Where are all those “high tech” jobs that were promised if IMM did’t open?
I see that Unicorn ranch is alive and well.
( I don’t expect a real answer from a professional beggar)

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Todd Juvinall

07 July 2015

Walt, as long as Sierra Fund and their ilk get free money from the taxpayers, their agenda will be in play. They destroyed the dredging industry and now they are profiting from that moratorium they put together with leftwing California legislators and the nutty governor. I have heard though there is a under the radar dredging going on. Too much gold to be left to the non-profit thieves.

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John

07 July 2015

Sorry “Jon”, not trying to be rude, but it is just painfully obvious that you have no idea what you are talking about on the subject of operating a small business in the Sierra. Starting to look like that applies to Frisch also, which makes me really curious about his organization. What does the Sierra Business Council do if they are not an advocate for business?

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Jon

07 July 2015

John, AB32 wasn’t designed to maximize business profits at any cost to the environment. It’s not written by business people, nor intended to cater to businesses that contribute to air quality problems. That’s just the way it is. Cost of doing business and most companies deal with it, as Steve has indicated.

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Jon

07 July 2015

Walt, just a hint…the Sutter Gold project is now a total fiasco because…ready for this.. the gold ISN’T down there. Smoke and mirrors.
Looks to be the same story in GV.

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John

07 July 2015

What does the Sutter Gold project have in common with Grass Valley Jon?

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Todd Juvinall

07 July 2015

John, you are correct about them. They are not business people. Both is a non-profit takers. A waste of hard earned taxpayers money. Now the struggling middle class can see where their money goes. America needs to change these things and get the thieves under control. Wall street bankers have nothing on these scams.

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Walt

07 July 2015

“jon” shows the nuttyness of the ECO gray matter. Sutter is a LONG way from here.
Just like the anti mining gang using totally different types of mining to spark fear in the uninformed.
IMM did PLENTY of drill core studies just to see what IS down there. Did Sutter?
IMM was bending over backwards to make the ECO bastards happy. Nothing was ever good enough. ” The mine water would be TOO cold to put in the creek. How dare the creek rise 4 inches. The list of bitches
grew and grew. Then the city of GV soaked IMM for over a million bucks and got jack shit in return.
The likes of “jon” fibbed about how many wells might go dry. 30 turned into 300. ( what is an extra “0” here or there?)
SO… Just where are all those high tech jobs? ( Nope,, not going to touch that one bit)
In the mean time what was left of GVG is gone. Even the new digs in Nevada City has been reduced to rental office space.
Yes two mines are up and running, and the only other mining is the mining of pockets digging for handouts. ( Via grant applications)
Then there is the millions spent on that “toxic” water project up at the Empire mine.
All that work and clear cutting for something that really doesn’t work as advertised.
Now it’s a great big bug breading ground. ( Skeeter habitat)
I’m sure the local ECO bastards had some input on that too.

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Jon

07 July 2015

Man Walt, do you really end up every day that angry about an illusion that never was? Wow. Sleep tight.

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Jon

07 July 2015

John 7:58,
Same type of crappy undercapitalized company trying to pull wool over a hopefully) ignorant citizenry with a soft spot for the supposed “good” old mining days in its history. Very, very similar. GV was fortunate to have some astute observers who called the bluff of the mining salesmen.

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John

07 July 2015

Jon, this sounds like you are claiming there is no gold in the Idaho Maryland mine. Say it ain’t so!

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Bill Tozer

07 July 2015

I use to love reading the ads in the former mag, EARTH FIRST! Typical real estate ad was about a cozy cabin in the redwoods. The most appealing and prominent feature in the ads was always the redwood deck. Whether EARTH FIRST was a Eco Terrorist racket or not does not matter. What matters is they fought hard to save the redwoods…for redwood decks. Somehow I can picture Jon swinging under the Redwoods in his hammock enjoying the sounds of song birds and looking over to admire his redwood sided home in the middle of The Garden of Eden.

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John

07 July 2015

Where did you get the idea there is no gold in the Idaho Maryland mine Jon? Does that wisdom come from the same place as your astute understanding of running a small business in the Sierra?

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Paul Emery

07 July 2015

You got it Jon. The Idaho-Maryland Mine was just an old fashioned Pump and Dump stock scam that couldn’t find any takers. They timed out on all the generous deadlines the Grass Valley planning department offered them and now are little more than a P.O. box in Marysville or Yuba City. They are not even listed on the website of their owner, Emgold. http://www.emgold.com/s/Idaho-Maryland_Project.asp

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Jon

07 July 2015

Gone, Goodbye Emgold! Thanks for reminding everyone, Paul.
Yes John. You got it exactly right. Not economically feasible to remove whatever deep down gold remains. How about that slick story they concocted about a giant tile factory. LOL. SCAM is being kind. Good riddance and long past time to MOVE-ON.

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John

07 July 2015

Pretty amazing that grown men can act so foolish. And to think that you really call yourselves progressive? Does that term not mean something to the effect of “open minded, willing to learn and forward thinking? You are so biased that you are blind to reality. The Idaho Maryland mine never ran out of easy to each gold, it was hugely profitable when gold was $35 oz. and closed by Presidential decree. The boring logs that still exist show known reserves of 2.3 million ounces. Do the math. You gentlemen who have never run a business but purport to know all about it are really kind of entertaining but since you pretend to know things you clearly don’t, and are not willing to listen or learn anything, any interaction with you is pointless. At the end of every day, have you ever created anything to add to the pot, or contribute to anything that counts? If not, you are just a waste of time.

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