Rebane's Ruminations
June 2015
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[The last sandbox seemed to have exhausted its old threads and its ability to launch new threads.  One can always tell that a sandbox is overfilled when the mudball density goes up.  I very much enjoyed the exchange on national healthcare issues and alternatives.  Although, I still didn’t see any appreciation from the Left that their vaunted EU healthcare programs continue to eat up a greater fraction of GDP year after year while existing services are being rationed and/or cut โ€“ the litmus test for unsustainability.  But then, that news never reaches the lamestream, and therefore it really is not happening. 

Regarding the GDP figure, please see my comment below. gjr]

GDPfigure

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196 responses to “Sandbox – 25jun15”

  1. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    Fish,
    I looked and couldn’t find that SCOTUS changed the wording in the law. They interpreted words differently than you would like but that is the dice we roll when interpretation becomes part of the equation.
    Actually the link Jeff Pelline gave gives a pretty good overview on the case and decision.
    http://www.vox.com/2015/6/25/8845433/obamacare-king-v-burwell

    Like

  2. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: George Rebane | 26 June 2015 at 08:59 AM
    I would agree George that counting externalities is extremely tricky business, and for the purposes of measuring national economic output probably needs to considered a wash, which is why I said if you count ‘negative’ you must count ‘positive’.
    However I must note that the OMB study I posted tracked hundreds of different federal regulations over a 10 year period and using a cost benefit analysis estimated positive externalities from regulation at anywhere from 4 to 10 times higher than negative externalities.
    If we were to use the air quality example the question is “Are the avoided costs derived from air quality regulation greater than the direct and opportunity costs of regulation.”
    I am a proponent of gradually incorporating calculations like this into the design, supply chain, manufacture, marketing, use, and recycling of goods and services. Many people are experimenting with this approach and discovering that they can substantially reduce costs and improve profit by doing life cycle analysis. This approach has the added benefit of reducing the need for regulation….it attacks the negative externalities from regulation at the ‘supply side’ if you will.
    I would argue that life cycle assessment is as important as risk assessment for a product or business. It illuminates areas where your supply chain is weak, where technology is disrupting the market, and where labor shortages occur , etc.
    Here is an example of one application designed to analyze life cycle:
    http://www.gabi-software.com/america/solutions/life-cycle-assessment/?gclid=CJ6yxcXircYCFQEcaQodbCUOCQ
    http://www.gabi-software.com/america/solutions/life-cycle-assessment/?gclid=CKGomYbhrcYCFQEdaQodyZgI6g

    Like

  3. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: Gregory | 26 June 2015 at 09:15 AM
    really no point even talking with you Greg. My contention, moving away from fossil fuels will be a net economic benefit. I could run the numbers but it would not change your mind.

    Like

  4. George Rebane Avatar

    BenE 911am – Thank you; let me puzzle on it. My initial perusal has lit some yellow lights on its interpretation of externalities. BTW, labeling it “Econ 101”, implying that the presentation is beyond debate, is a bit of a reach.

    Like

  5. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: Ben Emery | 26 June 2015 at 09:08 AM
    Boy they are having a bad week Ben. Obamacare, Fair Housing, Gay Marriage….if they lose on redistricting on Monday it will be a progressive sweep at the end of the session ๐Ÿ™‚

    Like

  6. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: Gregory | 26 June 2015 at 09:15 AM
    I will note however that the difference between you and me is that when I overstate something and get called on it, I review and admit my error if appropriate, as opposed to you who digs in your heels and resorts to ‘wretchedly misnamed’ rhetoric. One would think you were the one with a Rhetoric degree on your wall.

    Like

  7. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    I’ve not heard you admit the Sierra Business Council is, in fact, not a council of businesses, Steve. How was that name chosen?

    Like

  8. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    ” My contention, moving away from fossil fuels will be a net economic benefit. I could run the numbers but it would not change your mind.”
    More to the point, no one with money to invest is betting their money on your fantasy without huge subsidies or other coersions from the politicians demanding it, and that includes the increasing amounts of ‘renewable’ energy delivered on the grid in California. AB32 was sold with the claim that the result would be the Golden State reinventing the modern economy, leading the world into the new world. Will Californians stand for paying more for energy than everyone else in the lower 48 … if they weren’t convinced they were saving the world?
    BTW, you still have not actually coughed up a comment on the Met paper on the solar magnetic energy crash, the fastest drop of the last 9300 years. Sami Solanki, in precursor research a few years ago analyzed cosmogenic isotopes captured in tree rings, thus getting a year by year measurement going back about that 9000 years, and found the sun’s field in the 20th century was at twice the average, an energy level equaled only about 10% of the time. The scientists you are trying really hard to ignore have made the case that solar magnetic energy resulted in fewer clouds through much of the 20th century, and the current crash means more clouds now and over the next few solar cycles.
    Your raison d’etre is in a slo-mo collapse, Steve.

    Like

  9. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    When someone is a failure in every free enterprise endeavor they try, they are the last person anyone should go to for an opinion on economics. SBC and its CEO have no credibility in free enterprise but they do in “how to beg and receive non-profit money” .

    Like

  10. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: Gregory | 26 June 2015 at 09:46 AM
    So why in the world would I drag my business into this forum? I post here as an individual, and my business life has nothing to do with anything here.

    Like

  11. George Rebane Avatar

    Administrivia – I invite your kind attention to the 26jun15 update to ‘The really supreme Supreme Court’ wherein liberals will find much to celebrate.

    Like

  12. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Ben Emery | 26 June 2015 at 09:16 AM
    Whatever Ben….in this I’ll take the word of Scalia…after all he was there unlike the sages at vox.com.

    Like

  13. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Jeff Pelline | 26 June 2015 at 10:25 AM
    Spoken like a guy who used to fetch coffee for Herb Caen who now produces food porn in the foothills!

    Like

  14. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    You’re a founder and current President and CEO of the Sierra Business Council, Steve. It has a misleading name.
    Why?

    Like

  15. George Rebane Avatar

    SteveF 924am – Excellent, we are making progress. Yes, identifying and quantifying externalities is indeed a tricky business, as is cost accounting. Anyone who has done cost accounting for a larger enterprise (private or public) knows the brown numbers that have to be developed, often on the basis of how their validation will fly in the board room. Would that it were more objective.
    In that sense I look forward to reporting my take on BenE’s 911am hopeful explication of externalities. Are you familiar and/or agreeable with the presentation?

    Like

  16. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    As long as Jeff Pelline, award winning journalist and champion of the 97% climate consensus is back…
    Jeff, just how do you justify the carbon footprint of that monster truck with the vanity license plates?

    Like

  17. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Steven Frisch | 26 June 2015 at 09:34 AM
    How do you figure we’re having a bad week. We’ve witnessed a Chief Justice of the supreme court twist himself into an obvious legal pretzel to justify poorly written law yesterday and offer a weak assed dissent on the gay marriage decision today.
    You guys have to make this legislative abortion work and it is by no means out of the woods from a survival standpoint.
    I may have to take Nancy Pelosi up on her offer to be a complete layabout and have the citizenry (you poor bastards) foot the bill for my medical care.

    Like

  18. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Jeff Pelline | 26 June 2015 at 10:49 AM
    I misrepresent nothing jeffy. Although I’d guess you’ve engaged in a little memory holing I recall very vividly your fond remembrances of being Herbs coffee boy. And I freely admit to being a “regular guy” which makes it even more entertaining and ironic when I ridicule the likes of a guy like you! If you’d just been some run of the mill fat guy I’d have lost interest in under a week……but you’re such a big fat sweaty train wreck of a…..and I use the following term only because right now I can’t think of anything better….”human being” it’s hard to look away.

    Like

  19. fish Avatar
    fish

    I think this is because you haven’t accomplished, little if nothing, yourself so you belittle the experience of others?
    First rate sentence structure as demonstrated by “The Nations Editor”. That explains much about the overall poor state of todays newspapers.

    Like

  20. George Rebane Avatar

    Gentlemen – you are again contending with Pelline who has nothing but the deepest disdain for this forum and many of its participants. He allows none of this on his strictly “mediated” blog, yet there is where you should take your exchanges. His recent 1025am, 1049am, and 1114am have been removed. He has a standing invitation to join in the topical debates, and also no slack in throwing mudballs at this blog or its commenters. Capice?

    Like

  21. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: George Rebane | 26 June 2015 at 10:42 AM
    I am familiar with Ben’s explanation from Environmental Economics. I am generally in agreement with their explanation of a negative externality.
    However I would add, as now stated ad infinitum, that production of Q in the EE example also generates some positive side effects unmeasured by market value, such as optionally cleaner air, more recreation opportunities, etc.
    This is why life cycle analysis is so important–both negative and positive externalities have a tendency to be hidden because they do not have recognized market value–understanding them and seeking ways to create market value for them is a more efficient way to allocate resources, and thus grows the overall economy in the long run.

    Like

  22. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: George Rebane | 26 June 2015 at 11:11 AM
    Why do Todd and Greg get slack throwing mud balls.

    Like

  23. Jon Avatar
    Jon

    Steve, great question- one which I would like the host to answer.
    Now for some entertainment- I present to you- highly vocal Abstinance Advocate and now 2 time Official Sinner, Ms. Bristol Palin. You go girl! A lady after Todd’s Christian heart.
    http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Bristol-Palin-says-she-s-pregnant-for-second-time-6350224.php

    Like

  24. George Rebane Avatar

    StevenF 1124am – With more than a considerable number of life cycle analyses under my belt, I don’t recall that life cycle analysis removes any of the subjective factors that also infect cost accounting. In fact, depending on your selected time horizon (another brown number) for the life cycle, one must add in a whole new slew of brown numbers to get quantified results. Sam’s life cycle costs are not Hank’s, and neither are, say, DoD’s the same as DHS’s even though all are looking at the same system, equipment, process, law, regulation, … . In short, where’s the panacea?

    Like

  25. George Rebane Avatar

    StevenF 1130am – They don’t throw mudballs at me or RR. Their disagreements with me, while at times vigorous, remain gentlemanly. And their ascerbicity (especially from Gregory) are still sufficiently churchillian so that I don’t take offense. That is not the case when Pelline arrives on these pages. Many here, including me, have gone into more detail on the matter and there is no profit in rehashing, but suffice to say that Jeff Pelline is not a very nice man.
    BTW, I do believe that both ToddJ and GregG are a bit quick on the trigger. For example, I would welcome Todd just posting a link here to his more complete vituperation expanded on his own blog. Something like ‘xx is totally off base on yy, and I have set him straight on my blog (followed by the link)’. That would save these pages from the exchange, and drive more traffic to ‘Sierra Dragon’s Breath’ which also features ToddJ’s many essays on issues of the day.

    Like

  26. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    It is interesting to note that Red China, Frisch’s favorite place apparently, is building a coal fired plant a week to generate electricity that allows them to make and assemble Iphones to ship to America and make Apple a trillion dollar company. I don’t think the “externalities” are in our favor. I also don’t recall a daily deluge of Frisch criticizing Red China’s “air pollution” and its impact on their GNP. I mean, when 3 billion souls over there, (India too) are snubbing their noses at the EPA (LOL) how can we justify our own economic mastery of the planet?

    Like

  27. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Steven Frisch | 26 June 2015 at 11:30 AM
    As I’ve stated here on numerous occasions I would be happy to throw my “mudballs” in Pellines catbox directly but he runs it as he sees fit. His box his rules.
    George has graciously allowed me some latitude in his sandbox to lob some at “The Nations Editor” from a distance.

    Like

  28. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    My blog is unmoderated and all are welcome to come there as well. I have a lot of views. I am more than happy to see the libs come there but they just can’t help themselves about personal attacks! They even researched my marriages! But, I like it here because GeorgeR posts items and ideas I like to discuss. Unfortunately, the libs come and attack and cause mudbaths. Jonnie is the latest and he is strictly a troll. George allows him to post and that is his right. Gregory and the rest here except the usual lib suspects just can’t help themselves about namecalling.

    Like

  29. fish Avatar
    fish

    “jon” I’ll see your Palins morality issues post with this……

    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-26/collapse-part-5-things-fall-apart
    Gin up all the programs you want……they start out with sand in the gears!
    Parts 1 -4 are worth perusing as well.

    Like

  30. fish Avatar
    fish

    Now this is the sort of thing that could scuttle my gals chances……..
    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/hillary-flashback-no-new-york-should-not-recognize-same-sex-marriages_979108.html
    Jeez…..you would have thought that after Arkansas she would have learned a little something about Omertร .

    Like

  31. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: Todd Juvinall | 26 June 2015 at 11:57 AM
    Sorry Todd, you blog is not ‘unmoderated’ you have blocked certain ISP accounts from your blog. I know because I know someone who has played tag with you over that issue. Comments with names and e-mails attached have been blocked on your blog if people are critical of your point of view. So don’t get up in other people’s faces when they block comments, you do the EXACT same thing.

    Like

  32. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    George,
    Econ 101 was just how it was written on the blog. I have sent a message to my brother about a portion of economics that is ignored in major economic curriculum and in the business world. He has a Masters in Economic and Community Development. Once I find out the name I will link more on it. All I can do it give my summarized version of a subject that I am familiar with at best. I will save your and my own time.

    Like

  33. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Why, Frisch, I don’t so much throw mudballs as I field your pop singles and catch your foul balls. Like late yesterday when you thought you were being clever in using the word ‘ejaculate’. You really have been shooting blanks in many senses of the word. And, along with Jon and Jeffie, I think there’s a basic difficulty when someone who isn’t on the left stands up and fights over their sense of the truth in science and in life without resorting to the “Faux News” epithets so popular among ‘you people’.
    You’ve still ignored the recent actual science tossed your way, Steve… that Met office paper on solar activity. Fastest decline of the past 9300 years. What about it, Stevie?
    Now, I say again, a Paul Emery might want to get a “Breaking Bread” style discussion going again, and “Global warming is not a crisis” is a fine question to be argued but the only participants should be those with a formal science background which should probably be more than biology. And they should expressly omit Steve Frisch who has shown, time and time again, a refusal to engage on the scientific issues.

    Like

  34. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Steve Frisch, my blog is unmoderated. You are simply wrong. But what new?
    Now your moderated blogs and Facebook are another story. You can’t hack dissent nor will you answer questions. You and Pelline don’t like the free speech in America.

    Like

  35. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    I probably wouldn’t even be here had Jeff gotten tired of me winning arguments on his blog and barred me, even heavily editing my comments to change their meaning. In essence, providing a lie to his dwindling readership. Then there was that lie of his that I’d had a temper tantrum at a Constitution Day parade; that was in actuality a temper tantrum of Jeff’s when I wouldn’t provide to him a copy of a letter I wrote to a local organization of which I remain a member, and of which he firmly remains an outsider.
    I’ve never been “right wing” but if the only local blog open to all is going to be a “right wing” blog, I don’t have a problem participating.
    STOP the Presses! It’s been revealed on Pelline’s blog that a number of CalAg license plates have been issued to Nevada County cars, going back a couple of years. Jeff’s scoop wasn’t, For those who didn’t catch it, Jeff’s response to my challenge to justify the carbon footprint hypocrisy of his monster truck tax deduction was to throw my successful landing after vapor lock, after which I played my gig at the Center for the Arts (Paul Emery ran the place at the time).
    Why Jeffie thinks that’s a big deal I’ve not a clue; I suppose I should just be content knowing that, after all these years, that’s all he has.

    Like

  36. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: Todd Juvinall | 26 June 2015 at 01:22 PM
    You are lying Todd and I know that for a fact. No doubt about it.
    Whereas I have rules on my FB page, and my business has rules on their social media venues, and the very first time you tried to post you broke the rules, so you are banned from life; and we own it, so we don’t have to answer to anyone about banning you for life, but we are also not lying about our practices.
    Plus the point that you would equate this with some ‘free speech issue’ really shows utterly clueless you are about free speech. These are private venues, the owners can whatever they damn well please.

    Like

  37. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Steve Frisch, you are just wrong. My blog is unmoderated. You are confusing your own blogs. You moderate, I don’t.
    When I posted on your blog I simply asked for an accounting of your taxpayer paid soiree to Red China. You blocked me and refuse to this day to tell the taxpayers how you spent their money.
    Free speech is dead at SBC as moderated by Steve Frisch.

    Like

  38. fish Avatar
    fish

    ….so you are banned from life;
    Wow…..you guys are strict!

    Like

  39. George Rebane Avatar

    Gregory 127pm – “I probably wouldn’t even be here had Jeff gotten tired of me …” I didn’t know that. The good Lord sure does work in mysterious ways, and most likely He’s not done yet.

    Like

  40. Barry Pruett Avatar

    Steve said: “Sorry Todd, you blog is not ‘unmoderated’ you have blocked certain ISP accounts from your blog.” No offense Todd, but Todd can be as full of crap as anyone, but BlogSpot does not have an option to block ISPs. WordPress (i.e. Jeff Pelline blocks folks that do not agree with him all the time), but Todd does not have the ability using BlogSpot.

    Like

  41. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Thanks for the compliment Barry. You are correct and my blog allows all to post. Of course if they use profanity in nasty ways I can delete their comment. Haven’t done that for a long time.

    Like

  42. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: Barry Pruett | 26 June 2015 at 02:08 PM
    Could be third party software, or placing comments on hold and then not publishing them, I don’t know how he is doing it but I know he is doing it. Which is his right he just should not get away with lying about it.

    Like

  43. Jeff Pelline Avatar
    Jeff Pelline

    Here’s an summary of Gregory’s (AKA “Mr. Science’s) vapor lock airplane accident. The damage to his aircraft was “substantial,” as the report notes:
    http://www.aircraftone.com/aircraft/accidents/20060802×01075.asp
    BlogSpot does have an option to block commenters. I guess Todd and Barry just don’t know how it works.

    Like

  44. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Its nice to see the dark lord of liberal lament land is in his lefty glory only talking to frischy and the new ‘ann’ in his free speech exclusion zone. Gregory, you clearly have nailed em again! A link from 2006 is the best lefty jeffy has in the way of intelligent (reportedly)repartee?!? LOL Everyone repeat after me- Cast thee out demon and back to your pit of puss. (flinging fingers moistened with blessed chardonnay at the monitor along with chanting) Repeat 3 times daily as necessary. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Like

  45. George Boardman Avatar

    Jeffy seems to be in a bad mood today.
    First, he takes on The Union for sponsoring auxiliary events that (gasp) might make a profit, and then he trashes Nevada County Gold without bothering to mention that it’s a big competitor for local ad dollars. He seems particularly upset that NC Gold’s latest edition devotes nine of its first 10 pages to ads–something he can only dream about.
    Would you like some sour grapes with that whine?

    Like

  46. George Rebane Avatar

    re JeffP’s 309pm – the comment stands, but does anyone know what purpose this posting of the link to GregG’s accident serves? It is apparently a matter of public record of which no denials have been made. I don’t see how it might even diminish Greg. Peculiar. But I suppose that Todd will be interested in BlogSpot’s capability to block commenters. I know that TypePad provides that ability, and many times I’ve considered using it with Pelline – but hope springs eternal.
    Now about that novel use for “blessed chardonnay” from DonB’s 327pm … ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Like

  47. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: George Rebane | 26 June 2015 at 03:49 PM
    Another feeble attempt at character assassination by our little jeffy.

    Like

  48. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    George
    Might I add that Healthcare eats up 17% of of our GDP far higher than any EU country. It’s actually gone down a little since Obamacare.
    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.TOTL.ZS

    Like

  49. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Steve Frisch 2:18 PM
    No lying by me, you are simply fibbing to draw attention to yourself like a 11 year old little girl.
    I think Pelline is just sad that his nemesis was not a deadly casualty. The guy is one sick puppy on steroids. I am glad Greggory was OK. Jeeze!
    Blogger has a moderation button that I can use but don’t.
    GeorgeB, I think you are on to something.

    Like

  50. George Rebane Avatar

    PaulE 357pm – Our healthcare costs gone down under Obamacare??!! Don’t believe a word of it. The real costs of SCROTUMscare have yet to be tallied. I look forward to including in there a conservatarian’s view of externalities which is such a progressives’ favorite. BTW, the World Bank has about as much ability to compute US healthcare costs as does the Fed our GDP and unemployment, and OMB’s or CBO’s ability to predict federal revenues and deficits. The pain from the real costs are already being experienced, the actual numbers will come much later.

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