Rebane's Ruminations
April 2015
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George Rebane

The State of Jefferson movement was started over a year ago to offer northern Californians and the citizens of its thinly populated rural counties an alternative to being ignored by the social engineers, central planners, and bureaucrats in Sacramento.  The cry from these people has been ignored for over a generation, and working within ‘the system’ of a state dedicated to serving the populous coastal urban areas which have totally different interests and goals has not worked, and shows no signs of working in the future.  If anything, the urban voters have sent more legislators to Sacramento to double down on the regulations and strictures they have already imposed on the rural north.


When the SoJ movement started, our collectivist neighbors could not contain their mirth at the foolishness of those of us who supported such a separation and creation of the 51st state (full disclosure, I was on the leadership committee of Nevada County’s SoJ contingent).  They pointed out what in their minds was the total infeasibility of creating such a jurisdiction – its finances would not work out, its economy would be in permanent shambles, and its citizens would become the nation’s poorest of the poor.

The problem with all those dismissive critiques is that they assume that SoJ would come to be and then dwell in a cocoon of eternal stasis – an environment where commerce, industry, resource harvesting and management, education, relationships, money flows, and ongoing government intrusion would remain as it is now.  Nothing could be further from the truth.

But the development I draw your attention to today is the sudden formation of a new ‘non partisan’ PAC called ‘Keep it California’ (KiC).  Something seems to have happened during these past months that has given pause to the smug voices of confident collectivists and nay-sayers, they are beginning to see the never-to-be-admitted possibility that SoJ may actually come to pass.  And even if it does not, then the growing debate surrounding SoJ, and other similar movements in states with unrepresented populations, would draw unwanted attention to the nation’s progress toward a command society that has adopted but not acknowledged the goals and objectives of Agenda21.  In the case of northern California, SoJ's growth and development must be stopped, and the region must be retained as a repository of natural resources inhabited by a docile and compliant shrinking population of the politically powerless.

The 17apr15 Union reports that KiC is now in a frenzy to quickly establish their chapters in all the counties where SoJ is active.  Their stated aim is “to monitor and respond to any incursions by Jefferson proponents.”  (emphasis mine)  They will begin these activities at the upcoming 12may15 Board of Supervisors meeting at the Rood Center during which the NC SoJ committee will be allowed one hour to present the merits of forming the new state.  KiC will be there to counter SoJ during the Q&A and public input segments of the gathering.

It is interesting that KiC also claims to support more representation and a louder voice in Sacramento for northern California, but they have not told us what things they would say with such louder voice.  In this regard they have presented nothing other than the intention to continue doing the same ol’ same ol’.  The only thing new about KiC is that it is the Left's belated and somewhat embarrassing recognition that SoJ is a real, visible, and dangerous movement which should be quashed in its cradle lest it change socialism's course in California and thus infect the rest of the nation.

Yes, the SoJ movement is putatively also non-partisan, but you have to be pretty dim not to understand that the overwhelming number of SoJ supporters are of the conservetarian bent, and that those now speaking for KiC are liberals.  And this is as it should be to explain the ideological foundations of both efforts.  One side is for ever larger government and control, and the other side is for smaller, less intrusive government and more individual liberties.

This is confirmed by SoJ opponents who base their arguments on the Left’s well-established notion of stasis.  They do not believe that a new state with a reinvigorated approach to constitutional governance can do better, or can recover from our country’s increasing pace toward socialism.  However, historically such sclerotic thinking is not and has never been in the American mindset.  In this most exceptional country the world has ever seen, the new and never-been-tried has always served as a beacon to innovation and a better life.

[19apr15 update]  We are fortunate in this post to have the enthusiastic participation of Mr Steven Frisch who joins his fellow liberals in opposition to the SoJ movement while contending that in California all is well.  In fact, according to Mr Frisch, under the load of the nation’s most strict and encumbering environmental regulations that burden us, he sees their impact as having provided a “wildly successful” environment in which these regulations have become “huge drivers of economic development and benefit in California.”  Mr Frisch’s participation in this debate provides considerable value to the reader along several avenues, all revelatory of today’s progressive mindset and methods.

For those new to these pages, Steven Frisch is one of this region’s leading liberal intellectuals who daily labors in the vineyards of collective thought as a career apologist for the Left’s consolidation of their overwhelming influence and power in the Golden State.  For the lightly read, Mr Frisch operates under the perfectly camouflaged canopy of a grant-fed NGO fortuitously (cynically?) named the Sierra Business Council.  As its CEO and public voice Mr Fisch promotes the progressive agenda both in the local councils of electeds and in our public forums.  He and his SBC minions busy themselves in assembling programs and delivering lectures to explain to our commissions and governing jurisdictions how best to comply with and enjoy the glories of policies and regulations pouring forth from Sacramento and Washington, and how higher taxes serve to benefit one and all.

With this background we may examine the course of the debate in the comment stream below.  And true to form, Mr Frisch does not recognize the economic disaster that has befallen California since 2007.  Here he rejects all reports and attendant evidence of what the nation and the world now recognize as the Great California Exodus.  For him and his, large corporations have not moved their plants and offices to greener climes.  And such enterprises have not chosen to locate their growth in other states.  There is no stream of productive Californians going to live elsewhere, to be replaced by the indigents and illegals making the state home for a third of the nation’s welfare recipients.  With more than one eighth of America’s economy, California’s fall in the Great Recession was deeper than that suffered by the nation overall, all due to its stifling regulatory environment and perversely skewed tax structure.  And for the same reasons the state has been a drag on the country, contributing to its tepid recovery.  However, Mr Frisch sees none of this, nor does he recognize the data, analyses, and reports that have made such crippled economic performance known worldwide.

Instead, the astute reader will recognize Mr Frisch presenting data that he considers to not only counter all that, but instead prove that California's economy is wildly successful.  To do that he dredges up analyses of gasoline prices in the state, and the number of increased jobs, and other figures to invite into the weeds the unsuspecting reader who may not recognize the irrelevancy of his specifics, and the presentation of baseless statistics (the raw numbers mean nothing, it’s the base-relative ratios that tell the tale).

The Left, as illustrated by Mr Frisch, does not want to look at the aggregates that impact and illustrate California’s dire straits within the nationwide context.  Our public schools’ performance, our relative GDP growth, our population dynamics and growth, rate of business formations, unemployment rate, … .   To the state’s progressive contingent all is well, all is well.

Finally, it is in recognition of all these truths that an organized, formidable, and well-funded opposition is now necessary in the form of a new PAC named ‘Keep it California’.  It is because we live in two different Californias, where we observe and experience two different realities, that the SoJ movement is not only alive and well, but has become the clear and present danger to achieving the larger objective to make California into the Potemkin posterchild of progressive governance and socialist success.

Posted in , , ,

259 responses to “Suddenly SoJ has become real (updated 19apr15)”

  1. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: fish | 18 April 2015 at 02:30 PM
    Ah, Fish, you guys just want to spout and not actually debate with real sources and people who are willing to cite them. To characterize my writing as bureaucratese and George’s as anything else seems a bit disingenuous.

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  2. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: George Rebane | 18 April 2015 at 02:37 PM
    George….lets also not forget that some percentage of Steves cited economic numbers are due to some 8 trillion dollars in conjured money slowly wending it’s way through the economy. That kind of “money” allows the Solyndras, Evergreen Powers, and Fiskers to show up in the GDP numbers while being non-viable without government assistance.

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  3. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    “you continue to cite large numbers that do not compare California’s performance with that of the nation.” The Business Insider study directly compared California to every other state.
    “And quoting raw numbers instead of relative percentages is really a bamboozle for the uninitiated in these matters. Who care that an absolute number of new jobs in 2014 were “47% higher than the previous estimate of 320,300 jobs.” You must not have read the second paragraph….”California’s rate of job growth to 3.1% last year, much faster than the rate of 2.3% for the nation.”
    “And most certainly claiming that fossil and renewables are equally subsidized is a bit specious”. What about the fact that coal enjoys a substantially lower freight rate than other goods…that is a subsidy, created by Congress.
    The bottom line is that you don’t accept inconvenient facts and embrace anything that supports you existing point of view, the very definition of conformation bias.

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  4. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: fish | 18 April 2015 at 02:47 PM
    I’m sorry Fish I don’t know how to reposed to numbers like “8 trillion dollars in conjured money slowly wending it’s way through the economy.” You have a source for that? how much in California? how much as percentage of GDP compared to other states?
    Talk about an absolutely irrelevant statement…gonna hold Fish to the same standard George?

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  5. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Steven Frisch | 18 April 2015 at 02:57 PM
    I’m sorry Fish I don’t know how to reposed to numbers like “8 trillion dollars in conjured money slowly wending it’s way through the economy.” You have a source for that? how much in California? how much as percentage of GDP compared to other states?

    How much in California…..?? Solyndra was California and I imagine many other California based businesses were recipients of DC largesse. If this is incorrect and (except for Solyndra of course) the California contingent is bravely battling forward in a sluggish economy with no federal funds than by all means your earlier argument is that much more impressive. Is that the case?
    From WaPo “Fact Checker”. Until I know differently I’ll assume that this is a legitimate source.
    One alternative method looks at the dollar amount of the debt increase divided by the dollar amount of GDP at the end of each term. Obama’s numbers for the debt and GDP are only through Sept. 30, 2014, and thus should be considered a temporary figure, as an improving economy might boost the GDP and thus improve his ratio. At current trends, however, it is likely that Obama’s performance would be the worst among recent presidents, according to this calculation. (He would still trail Roosevelt and Wilson among presidents in the last hundred years.)
    Debt increase* End-of-term GDP* Percentage
    Reagan $1,873 $8,850 21%
    GHW Bush 1,484 $9,410 16%
    Clinton 1,268 $12,680 12%
    GW Bush 4,899 $14,580 34%
    Obama 7,198 $16,160 44%

    So 7 trillion…..but likely closer to 7.5 Trillion as this was as of 30 Sept 2014.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/12/08/does-obama-have-the-worst-record-on-any-president-on-the-national-debt/

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  6. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    I think you popped the little head of Frisch there fish. I see he is still plastering the blog with bureaucratic BS. I saw a lot of his writing for eight years as a Supe. He truly has become a full fledged bureaucrat. What a hoot!

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  7. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Hey Todd, where did you “see a lot of his [my] writing as a Supe”? I don’t remember ever writing one single thing to the BOS while you were on it between 1985 and 1992. I don’t remember writing anything that was published anywhere while you were on the BOS Where did you “see a lot of his writing as a Supe”?
    I am really loathe to call you a liar, but I think you are a liar.

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  8. George Rebane Avatar

    stevenF 254pm – did you just ignore the data I presented in my 237pm? Those are the kinds of numbers I believe bear on this discussion of how well California is doing relative to other states. If you disagree, I would like to hear your reasoning why the data you presented is more relevant than 1) what I presented, and 2) my summary of your implied contribution of regs and taxes to economic performance.
    BTW, as a footnote to all this, I do appreciate the approach and enthusiasm with which you argue your side. For the undecided (middle road?) reader, the contrast should be educational. Thank you.

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  9. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Posted by: fish | 18 April 2015 at 02:47 PM
    Fish, if some portion of my numbers are based on money wending its way through the California economy the same is true of every other state, and some portion of George’s numbers would be affected by money wending its way through those economies.
    I think your statement is totally irrelevant to the conversation.
    George, same standard?

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  10. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    George, I think that if we are going to compare GDP per capita we would need to look at the per capita GDP of California compared to other states, and its relative position over the years. My guess is California’s per capita GDP was probably pretty low until the 1920’s when Los Angeles really boomed, then it probably gained during the second world war and immediately afterward as industry and population lagged behind industrial growth. The comparison here would not be what is California’s per capita GDP compared to other states, but has California’s per capita GDP grown compared to other states over time. Then we would need to overlay the regulatory policies and tax rates you claim have retarded California’s per capita GDP and see what effect they had, factoring in other externalities of course.
    Like many things it is not as simple as a single figure.
    Let me ask you a question, do you think the increase California’s personal and business tax rates was lower before Prop 13? If so would you say that as property tax revenue fell we increased tax rates in other areas? If so, by your logic, wound;t Prop 13 have more to do with shifting the burden of tax to the wealthy and business more than regulatory policy?

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  11. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Todd, if you can produce one document I sent to the Board of Supervisors, or published that you would have read while you were on the Board of Supervisors I will stand at a CABPRO event and eat it (in printed form of course), and donate $1000 personally to CABPRO.

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  12. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    ‘jon’ re HH our own Pelosi clone, guess the last election ended that streak of successes eh.

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  13. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    I see the big Frischie in the small pond is in fine form today, about what one would expect for a shameless rentseeker with a trivial arts degree in political bullshitting.
    Steve, one difference between the sciences and politicians is that scientists are expected to understand and even argue the position of the scientists they disagree with; that you didn’t even name one scientist who doesn’t toe the “consensus” line shows you don’t know or don’t care what the opposing arguments are, and given you named perhaps the only verified liar and fraudster for one of your warmists, you probably don’t know AND you don’t care… ignorance can be bliss. Gleich (who has no credentials in meteorology, climate or atmospheric physics), while he was chairing the Ethics panel of the AGU had the chutzpah to masquerade as a Heartland Director in order to get proprietary documents being distributed to their Board, forged a document that named Gleich as a major threat to skeptics, and inserted it into the Heartland package before distributing it on the internet under a sockpuppet name. It took awhile to pin it on Gleich, but it did land back in his lap.
    Et tu, Andy?
    http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/20/peter-gleick-admits-to-deception-in-obtaining-heartland-climate-files/?_r=0
    Santer isn’t a bad pick for a pro AGW side (and the American Physical Society agrees, having invited him to the APS workshop review on climate science). The transcript of that workshop is here:
    http://www.aps.org/policy/statements/upload/climate-seminar-transcript.pdf
    Joe Romm would be a choice I’d make for you; Gavin Schmidt would also be a good choice, but he got trounced in 2007 in an IntelligenceSquared/PBS Oxford style debate of the questions, Global warming is not a crisis. Schmidt even got a Bronx cheer from the liberal Manhattan audience when he, in exasperation, blamed the audience for not being able to understand the issues and he’s avoided appearing with capable skeptics ever since, claiming not to want to lend them credibility (one might suspect he really just doesn’t like losing that badly). Schmidt was one of three alarmists, facing Dr. Michael Crichton, Dr. Phillip Stott and MIT’s Lindzen.
    Since Frisch knows no scientists with views outside the IPCC “consensus”, the three the APS chose for the workshop were MIT’s Richard Lindzen, Georgia Tech’s Judith Curry and UAH’s John Christy. They’d be fine choices for a fantasy debate (Curry was scintillating at a Congressional hearing last week) but the ones who performed the research that turned me from “Lukewarmer” to skeptic to scoffer are astrophysicist Nir Shaviv, geochemist Jan Veizer, physicist Henrik Svensmark, physicist Eigil Friis-Christensen and particle physicist Jasper Kirkby. There are a host of others but that’s a good start.
    The guy the APS picked to head the review was perhaps the one APS member who really was as pure as Caesar’s wife, Dr. Steven Koonin, formerly of CalTech. Koonin, as a result, is apparently now firmly in the skeptic camp, having written a celebrated op-ed in the WSJ:
    http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/news/10.1063/PT.5.8071
    Shaviv is on a particular roll… now a full professor at the Racah Institute of Physics, he’s spending a year’s sabbatical at Princeton’s Institute of Advanced Studies as an IBM Einstein Fellow (pay attention here, Steve, that was IBM paying his way, not Exxon) and he, along with a more refined dataset of ocean temperature proxies by Veizer, has detected the 32 million year periodic oscillation of our solar system in and out of the galactic plane … by galactic cosmic rays, in the climate. Fascinating reading for the science minded:
    https://www.ias.edu/ias-letter/2015/shaviv-milky-way
    A preliminary version was published in a Nature peer reviewed journal last fall, and I’m sure there will be a very detailed version published later.
    Oh, and Steve, Russ did introduce me to Watts a few years ago, in Nevada City, but while he’s just a blogger who I have never used as a reference, Anthony does a good job of presenting the work of real scientists that you’d never hear of if you just read The Chronicle and Mother Jones, and the most charitable thing I can say about Rose Koire is that I’ve never been in her target audience; that Steven Frisch of the wretchedly misnamed Sierra Business Council would represent otherwise is more evidence that Steve is worse than he thinks I am. I also do my best to avoid arguments to authority… I can actually do a credible job of presenting the science of all the people I name, at a layman’s level as you might get in a Scientific American article before they drank the koolaid. Steven Frisch cannot.

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  14. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    So I take it that is a “NO” Greg? 🙂
    I thought so.
    Offer still stands, you bring yours, I bring mine, whoever they may be, and we duke it out in a moderated format based on real rules.
    After wading through all the bullshit over how much you loathe my organization, I se the answer is still NO.
    I would wipe the floor with you you little guttersnipe.

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  15. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    And Todd, you lying sack homespun anecdotes, the offer is still open.

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  16. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    That should read, “as industry grew and population lagged behind industrial growth.”

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  17. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Hey, Fish, Todd and George, Greg’s reopens looks awfully l o n g to me. Gonna bust his chops?

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  18. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Steven Frisch | 18 April 2015 at 03:37 PM
    The Obama administration isn’t shoveling money to coal plants located in the midwest, mines in central Nevada, and frackers in Texas. He is however gifting the solar and green energy industries….industries that are in large measure located in …..wait for it….California.

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  19. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Steve, this is your fantasy, not mine. The cosmic experiment is running and I think there will be adequate evidence anyone not a Born Again “Progressive” from climate alarmism in the next 5 years… it was clear to me in 2007 that there was a MAJOR line of evidence pointing away from climate catastrophe being actively ignored, and that line has only gotten stronger with time. The only thing that could keep Alarmism in beans and tortillas would be a resurrection of late 20th century warming, but the oceanic cycles that appear to have been a major driver are expected to continue cool, and the doubling of solar magnetic activity of the 20th century which shielded us from ionizing galactic cosmic rays (a significant source of cloud condensation aerosols) is over, with a Maunderish solar minimum expected for solar cycle 25, the likes of which that has not been seen since the Little Ice Age
    We can debate online right here; if you want a Oxford style debate with scientists of international stature, that’s above my pay grade to arrange but I’d be happy to help. I think you are incapable of actually delivering anyone but prove me wrong. I also think you are incapable of being civil when faced by someone who won’t wither under your verbal assault.
    Is your SBC going to scare up funding for this fantasy debate? No, I didn’t think so.

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  20. fish Avatar
    fish

    Hey, Fish, Todd and George, Greg’s reopens looks awfully l o n g to me. Gonna bust his chops?
    No…..again he didn’t accuse me of “seem to loath reading” either. You seem to think that you’re the only contributor here who I don’t read with “GREAT INTENSITY”….you would be mistaken in this assumption.

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  21. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Frisch you missed ,y point about your writings. I tossed you into the bureaucracy BS I read as a Supe. You are simply all the same. Get it?
    I think you have been shown to be a AGW believer Frisch. Gregory has shown you only read your “side” and disregard anything that opposes your worldview. You are in a cloister and get out. What a hoot!

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  22. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Greg, the last refuge of the uncivil is call someone else uncivil when they act that way. Your record of incivility is clear to me. I am speaking on behalf of myself, yet you insist on bringing my employer into this. Why is that Greg? You don’t see me attacking your employer do you? I would bring your employer into this but you don’t have one do you? I could say, “the wretchedly misnamed Goodnight Enterprises”, but there is no such thing.
    I would do an on-line Oxford style debate, but there would need to be an impartial moderator to keep you from just the type of comments that appear above.
    I ain’t buying your “I am from Harvey Mudd so I know better” schtick.

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  23. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Todd I think half the time you don’t even understand what you write.

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  24. fish Avatar
    fish

    TOP DEFINITION
    guttersnipe
    street urchin
    The guttersnipe stole the purse.
    by plasteredbob July 05, 2003
    …..and who could doubt the wisdom and verbal competence of Urban Dictionaries “Plastered Bob”?

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  25. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    By the way Todd, do you get the humor of in one paragraph saying “you are all the same” then accusing me of only disregarding anything that does not fit my world view?

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  26. George Rebane Avatar

    How in hell did the SoJ issue bifurcate to include a rehash of the AGW debate?
    Re my 336pm and SteveF’s 349pm, I do want to the debate about California’s economic performance to return to the seminal measurables. There is no doubt that California’s residents are hurting, the polls, the demographics, and the U-Rent trailers testify to that. How do extraordinary taxing and regulatory levels contribute to growth?

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  27. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    As the CEO of the wretchedly misnamed Sierra Business Council, in a very real sense you are your employer, and what you get is your negativity bounced back atcha. Your screeds above are a case in point.
    What’s in the name? It isn’t a council of businesses, the very name is misleading. When I first read of it during the NH2020 brouhaha, I really thought you represented business, not a rentseeking herder of businesses through a maze of regulations. People taking the name at face value think you represent a business approach to regional governments, and you do not.
    Then there’s your tax fraud as a restaurateur and that DUI if we want to dig further.

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  28. George Rebane Avatar

    Gentlemen, gentlemen – with your ad hominems cherche le Sandbox.

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  29. Paul Emery Avatar

    Frish, Gregory
    How about a public debate with a format of your design. I will do what I can to have it broadcast by KVMR as a news special. Also it’s po0ssible it could be broadcast on NCTV as well. Let me know yout thoughts on the idea. Lets migrate to the Sandbox on this idea.

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  30. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Frisch 4:55
    Your comprehension level is pretty low. Writing the same as all the bureaucrats do is quite different than your worldview on global warming love. Jeeze what a dunce.
    Regarding the State’s economy. The whole central valley is a mess. Not only did the democrats stop water deliveries when there was water to deliver in the Fresno area over the years, the unemployment levels are huge. Now all those people have to eat and drink and have a roof over their heads. Their kids need to be in school yet they have no jobs. So we have a double and quadruple whammy to the economic system here. Besides that, we have Covered California that is cooking the books and spending a gazillion bucks we shift from other necessary things. The state is a mess, AB32 is a fiasco, and now the drought and the democrats handling of it are a fiasco as well. But the rent seekers like Frisch get the grants to tell Nevada City how to save electricity. The state is in Alice’s Wonderland!

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  31. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: George Rebane | 18 April 2015 at 04:59 PM
    Sometimes it just goes that way George!

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  32. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Todd Juvinall | 18 April 2015 at 05:09 PM
    You raise an excellent point Todd:
    Besides that, we have Covered California that is cooking the books and spending a gazillion bucks we shift from other necessary things.
    And it gets back to the “Gruberization” of the political process. You guys might get cut a little more slack if so many of your experts weren’t caught on tape so often bragging that they gamed the system but that it was all for the best!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G790p0LcgbI

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  33. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Let me point out that I left my house soon after my 9:08AM, and Frisch was shadow boxing me in the hours while I was out. Pure out of the blue ad homs.
    George, the point I made to the points you wanted to argue, “what happens to political power in California if (meaning when) the AGW meme collapses?”. Carbon mitigation and taxation is the organizing principle of economic policy in Sacramento, and will remain so until it obviously costs the current Democratic Party more votes than it buys. That measurable economic activity results from borrowing billions and spending it on politically channeled spending is a given; what’s hard is to figure out what growth would be had that capital been available to enterprises that are trying to provide a better mousetrap in a market free of political misappropriations… we might was well argue how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.
    The dismal science of economics is better at autopsies than therapies.

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  34. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Fish I don’t get you 4:54 post. Am I just dense? Hey don’t answer that. LOL!

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  35. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    I am not a supporter of SoJ but I totally understand why it is happening. I am making some attempts at the old eac county gets a Senator schtick which would solve it all but probably has as much chance as SoJ. What it says to me is the government is out of touch with reality and the minority people, those in the rural areas, are getting screwed and are simply fed up. Little flames can spread and become conflagrations if we have people that don’t pay attention. The fall of the old USSR is a prime example.

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  36. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Todd Juvinall | 18 April 2015 at 05:20 PM
    The gist of it is that guys like Frisch expect us to trust their experts…..but so many of their “experts” are like Michael Mann and the CRU book cooking affair….and the aforementioned Jonathan Gruber lying about Obamacare. Lets just say guys who don’t demonstrate they’re worthy of trust placed with them. The head of the IPCC (Pachauri) just got the bums rush on a sexual harassment charge. Every 18 months or so there is a scandal surrounding the holy notion of “peer review”. And so it goes!
    Not trusting experts is a wholly rational position to take!

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  37. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Todd 5:20PM, one the names Frisch, the posturing CEO of the wretchedly misnamed Sierra Business Council, tossed my way was “guttersnipe”, at 4:13PM.
    http://www.thefreedictionary.com/guttersnipe

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  38. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    George, do you have the U-Haul number handy or is that just another case of saying something with no back-up? Is the U-Haul number higher as a percent of population in California than it has been in the past or in other states? Is there a secret “U-Haul” index out there somewhere?

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  39. Russ Steele Avatar

    Steven@09:30AM
    Reality check! According to my estimate based on information provided by the US Energy Information web site, the cost of Low Carbon Fules and Cap and Trade on fuel production is costing California’s about 26 cents per gallon. You can go to my webpage and see a graphic I have prepared here:
    http://sierrafoothillcommentary.com/ca-fuel-analysis/
    Note I am comparing regular formulated fuel in the PADD 5 western states without California, with California formulated fuel prices. PADD 5, without California includes Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska and Hawaii. Including Alaska and Hawaii inflates the average price, so without these high cost fuel states in the total, the disparity could be even greater between other western states and California. All indicating that California regulations are driving up the cost of fuel, which increases the cost doing business in California, making surrounding states more competitive.

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  40. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Gregory, now I get it. Fisj, excellent point. We all get to read the “experts” and then we have free will to choose who we trust. Your observation that Frisch expects us to walk in his lockstep when he lists his experts yet pooh poohs ours is telling. I think he is just a partisan hack like Harry Reid etal.
    Regarding California’s economy. I think we have a very high unemployment number and a large “not counted work force” here. With Apple sending all the manufacturing to China and leaving our people on the bread lines, I would say things are not that good.

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  41. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    “Bottom Line: The cost of a one-way U-Haul truck leaving California for Texas is more than twice the cost to rent that same truck going from Texas to California, suggesting that there are twice as many trucks and people leaving California for Texas than vice-versa. Based on the huge difference in demand for one-way truck rentals, there is a premium of more than 100% for Californians to rent trucks going to Texas, and large discounts for trucks going in the opposite direction to California. U-Haul’s market-based pricing seems to confirm the California exodus to Texas of jobs, people and businesses like Toyota and Occidental.”
    Seriously my friend that is not evidence, it is a quaint speculation.

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  42. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Russ, I Iooked at your graph and you have no way to attribute the change in the delta to the LCFS. It looks like you very accurately graphed the data, but not the cause.
    UCD actually tracked the sales of allowances versus pricing and supply, factored in refinery capacity and data from refiners.

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  43. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    Frisch demands we goose step with the kool aide drinkers and keeps pointing to the emperors sycophants for their glowing reports of the nonexistent emperors robes but they have lost the public on this. Falsified and manipulated data and a horrendous pattern of failed predictions mount. ( Roll Al Gore archival footage and please include his G5 taking off to Davos etc. with a background audio of Nazi marching music please. ) Where was I, oh ya. You can clear cut all the forests to print your volumous citing’s of each other but your argument has no weight against the facts that have stacked up for decades.

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  44. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Wow Don you just managed to waste an entire paragraph saying precisely nothing.

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  45. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    I think a good case could be made that is OK if the price of gasoline relative to other states goes up in California by a reasonable amount as long as the proceeds are invested in efficiencies and savings that reduce costs in other areas. It send a price signal that I agree with that we value efficiency and co-benfits over consumption.
    I also think that although the price of allowances equating to 1/3 of a cent does not mean that much relative to the price of gasoline, our ability to be sure what the causal relationship is between the allowance and of the specific price is limited. There are way to many externalities to say A caused B.

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  46. Russ Steele Avatar

    Steven@07:38 PM
    It is hard to separate the individual cost of the California environmental regulations, there are a plethora of regulations that are impacting the price of fuel in the state, LCFS and AB-32 Cap and Trade being two of the most recent. Over time we can look and see that the delta difference is between states that are producing and formulated regular gas and California. My guess is that it will be an increase. It went from 58 cents in July 2014 to 84 cents in March of 2015. We will look again at the delta in July 2015
    Regardless of what produced the delta cost, it makes California uncompetitive with other states. In 2011 California lost almost $40 billion dollars in wealth to neighboring states and Texas according to the IRS records of AGI.
    CA Lost Wealth To:
    $9.89 billion Nevada
    $8.14 billion Arizona
    $6.40 billion Texas
    $6.28 billion Oregon
    $5.52 billion Washington
    Money talks when money walks.
    CA Gained Wealth From:
    $3.42 billion New York
    $2.46 billion Illinois
    $2.03 billion New Jersey
    $1.52 billion Massachusetts
    $1.26 billion Michigan
    The out flow to neighboring states is the competitive tell tail.

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  47. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    DonB 7:42 between innings here. Anyway, thank for the recap of why “global warming” err “climate change” is so low on the interest list of the real people. Only sycophants and rent seekers from the pool of stolen taxpayers money can still get excited about the non-issue. That includes most democrats and their legislators.
    Here in California AB32 is looking more the fool’s chore. Rising fuel costs, electric costs, natgas costs, trucking and auto regulations, home energy costs, (now retrofits on sales) and all the other liars laws on energy that only a bureaucrat like theFrisch could love. Jeeze, California is being ruined by him and his ilk. Sad.

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  48. Don Bessee Avatar
    Don Bessee

    SF- While it was only a paragraph, I would submit that it got more traction with voters than your pages and pages of bloviating. :-0 snap!

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