Rebane's Ruminations
February 2015
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George Rebane

Data homogenization is not an objective scientific process.

Recreational marijuana will be legalized across the country over the next several years.  RR is on record as a proponent of judicious progress in this direction.  Nevada County’s economy already enjoys a major contribution from the illegal RMJ that various estimates put above the $100M range annually.  Legalization will drastically change the local RMJ production industry, but our county’s political and economic development leadership continues to ignore the existential contribution of RMJ to our economy.  A better approach would be to recognize NC’s role as a major RMJ producer, and plan for the coming changeover as California is about legalize RMJ production.  NC should create an environment which will benefit the local economy as RMJ moves into prime time so as to attract commercial growers that will produce the weed in legal grows that contribute zero nuisance to established developed areas and generate taxable revenue to the benefit of all.  In today’s Union George Boardman makes a good case (here) for such preparations.  (Russ Steele has another take here on the impact of RMJ legalization on Nevada County's economy.  I contend his assessment that NC cannot support large commercial RMJ grows and processing to replace the current 'mom & pop' illegal producers.)


Public pensions are not inviolate when a municipality declares Chapter 9 bankruptcy.  CALPERS has been arguing that funding such pensions must be done first, last, and always even if it means selling off every last asset belonging to a city.  People are finally beginning to recognize that almost all of such pension agreements were negotiated under some demonstrable presumption of fraud or gross incompetence, and therefore they are not as sacrosanct as the public service unions and their account managers like CALPERS have insisted.  Now in the case of Stockton’s bankruptcy, federal judge Christopher Klein has ruled in favor of providing Stockton (and by case law, other jurisdictions) relief so that they don’t have to sell their fire trucks and parks to fund fat pensions to public retirees.  In sum –

What all this means is that Calpers can’t stop cities from modifying pensions in bankruptcy. This has ramifications across the U.S. because unions are trying to make public pension benefits inviolable as a matter of constitutional law. If that view prevails, then politicians can make irresponsible deals to get elected that no future politicians can rescind even if they become unaffordable. (more here)  

The hushed up climate change debacle continues.  New evidence comes in almost daily about another discovery of doctored data and mangled models to make the political case that runaway manmade global warming is getting worse, and time for draconian policies needed to save mankind is running out.  Recently RR readers have been posting links (here and here) that cite foreign media reports picked up by bloggers that no US lamestream outlet will touch.  One of the most dangerous consequences of such fraudulent climate change promoting is the support it gives to the UN’s blatant promotion of Agenda21 (here).  And in Nevada County we continue denying both AGW fraud and the advance of A21.

The local hard left continues its ballistic trajectory to criticize The Union’s editorial policy and journalistic practices.  Our Designated Duty Reader of those outlets emailed me the recent blast from the Cosmic Critic and Monument to Morality who again takes publisher Hemig to task for running a “cesspool” of an op-ed page.  It seems that the latest infractions include not declaring a contributor’s affiliation to organizations like the local tea party, even if the submitted piece only reflects the writer’s personal opinion.  But the main complaints of the leftwing arise for the usual reasons that their writers’ opinion pieces build upon specious and unsupported arguments that are ludicrous on their face, and therefore easily refuted by people of opposite views and even political independents.

In 'The Dangerous Lie that 'Bush Lied'' Laurence Silberman points out that lamestream journalists have taken Bush2's post 9/11 pronouncements of Saddam's WMDs as deliberate lies to be revealed truth unexamined and inscribed in stone.  As an example, Silberman cites reporter Ron Fournier's assaults on Bush2's credibility.  (We note that some RR commenters are similarly afflicted.)  Mr. Silberman is a senior federal judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, and was co-chairman of the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction.  He concludes –

The charge is dangerous because it can take on the air of historical fact—with potentially dire consequences. I am reminded of a similarly baseless accusation that helped the Nazis come to power in Germany: that the German army had not really lost World War I, that the soldiers instead had been “stabbed in the back” by politicians. … Sometime in the future, perhaps long after most of us are gone, an American president may need to rely publicly on intelligence reports to support military action. It would be tragic if, at such a critical moment, the president’s credibility were undermined by memories of a false charge peddled by the likes of Ron Fournier.

[10feb15 update]  Kudos to Heidi Hall who in her 10feb15 Union column – ‘High time for cannabis common sense’ – outlines her position on RMJ that is very similar to that long-promoted here on RR.

Kissinger explains Obama’s backpedaling on Iran to the Senate.  It is clear from the record that the west, led from behind by Obama, has quietly switched its strong initial policy (backed by UN resolutions) of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapon capability, to one of managing the scope of Iran’s nuclear weapons development program.  Specifically, these dumbos are now trying to negotiate an agreement calling for detecting a “breakout period” of one year to Iran’s having a nuclear weapon.  This, of course, requires the deployment of a very intrusive inspection effort which Iran will oppose, and on which our lame duck will cave.  (more here)

Speaking of the lame duck, David Axelrod gives evidence that we also have a lame brain in the White House.  In his newly released memoir – Believer: My forty years in politics – Axelrod makes the case that Obama really does believe that his socialist policies calling for an ever bigger, more intrusive, and higher taxing government is good for America.  And here we thought the sumbich was doing all that to keep harvesting more Democrat votes.  But then again, we may have been right since Axelrod also reports that luminaries like Barbra Streisand advises Obama “to talk to people in simpler terms, for the Gruberesque reason: ‘I hate to say it, but people are stupid.’”

[13feb15 update]  Almost all longtime temperature records used in the current climate hysteria analyses and reporting have been subjected to what is known as 'data homogenization' (here).  This is an extremely subjective process involving substitution into the temperature record of variously interpolated or homogenized temperatures for the actual raw measured temperatures.  The interpolation process is the entry point of subjectivity since the neighboring temperature points may be selected on any arbitrary basis involving temporal, spatial, or other attributes chosen by the investigator.  And therefore, these attributes and identification of suitable 'neighbors' can be done to suit any given conclusion.  Homogenized data records need to be highly qualified before being used in any subsequent analyses like calculating regressions or determining trends.

[16sep15 update]  Sarin in Iraq.  What revoltin’ development this is to the ‘Bush2 lied’ progressives!  Is there no more equitable, inclusive, sensitive social justice left in the world.  The NYT, the Gray Lady herself, has the temerity to report (here) that Iraq was indeed full of Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction.  Enough even to covertly sell to the CIA over a multi-year period through its ‘Operation Avarice’.  Why did the NYT report this now?  I can’t believe that this is the first leak of Operation Avarice, and the story of why it has been suppressed for so long would be even of greater interest to me.

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141 responses to “Ruminations – 9feb15 (updated 16feb15)”

  1. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Bill, an agent of the Federal government has been assessing my mental health every couple of years over the last two decades.
    George, yes, a big problem for bar hopping patrons wanting to get home after too much are the barriers to jitneys; Uber has been an interesting hybrid that, for most jurisdictions, has appeared to split the hairs well, though the taxi monopolies have shut it down in the state of Nevada, at least for the time being. A real shame.

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  2. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Problem with rides home in this area is we are too spread out. A ride to Alta Sierra, top of Banner or Red Dog, Britney Springs, Penn Valley, Peterson’s Corner?? Like the prospectors of days of yore, they see the city lights in yonder distance and journey on in with a few nuggets in their pockets to have a grand ole time. Maybe local rides for folks with 3 digit addresses. Better than a ride to that one building situated in the corner of the Rood Center parking lot. Or just stay home until your can blow half a paycheck and still have cab fare. A good Boy Scout is always prepared. Patience is a virtue.

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  3. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    I’m going to try to ignore the drivel here and tell a story about playing music in Europe and how they handle drinking driving. First of all the penalties are severe if you are caught, much worse than here with jail time in Denmark for first offenses. However in Europe people are not as dependent on their own automobiles so there is a healthy cab business available for rides home. In London the pubs are jammed till closing time but the subways are timed to meet the closing crowd and fill up with drinking pubsters heading home.
    Here is a good story about Denmark. In Denmark you can drink when you’re 18 and every town has by tradition a “kids drinking in town” night. I was playing in the town of Randers on the Jutland Peninsula on a Thursday which was “kids” night” in that town. The bar was packed with 18 year olds drinking beer and being very loud as kids like to be. The bar stayed open till 3AM upon which hundreds of kids streamed out into the streets many of them rather toasted. They were very loud and were behaving in a manner which could be considered a riot if it were to happen in Nevada City. Guess what? There was a fleet of cabs waiting for them and they all piled in, four to a cab walking around ad hock to find one going to their neighborhood. It took about three trips by the cab fleet to get everyone home but it was done in around half an hour. At first I was quite taken back by what appeared to be a rowdy scene and I commented that this would not be allowed in my home town. My friends who were in their mid 40’s as was I responded with words to the effect that “Thursday has always been kids night in Randers. We did the same thing when we were kids.” They explained that letting kids blow off steam in a quasi organized fashion kept them from doing other more dangerous things. Also they said police were around but you seldom saw them but if needed they were efficient and effective. Now that’s a Libertarian solution to dealing with teenagers and drionking driving for sure.

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  4. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Paul, please note the drivel was mostly Frisch’s name calling and a fresh libel or two.
    IMHO DUI in California is more of a shakedown than a criminal matter. Fundraising by the county and state and an excuse for insurers to raise rates to usurious levels.
    I recall an exchange recounted by an fellow engineer and some Japanese colleagues… DUI, you lose your license. Drive without a license, you go to jail. Not much drama or uncertainty over either.

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  5. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Oh yes, one more thing about cabs in Europe and Britain. It is customary to share taxi rides with strangers to save money. In fact the cabs will stop and pick people up without even asking if you ask them to save fare for you.

    Like

  6. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Some people just can’t handle their glass of vino with dinner. Glad she made it home safe and sound.
    http://www.vox.com/2015/2/13/8033211/ruth-bader-ginsburg-asleep
    I can’t really blame her. She had to sit through the whole thing.

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  7. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    What is this European taxi drivel? No one cares. Sheesh!

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  8. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Oh Todd, you’re such a bore. Okay, this is for you-It’s all Bush’s fault. Now you can respond and you’ll be happy.
    In the mean time, I was chosen by the Nevada Chamber of Commerce to be the King of the Mardi Gras Parade along with the Queen, Gretchen Bond, Executive Director of the Miners Foundry to represent performing Arts in Nevada City. It will be a beautiful day so hope to see you there.

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  9. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Congrats Paul. Will you throw me some beads if I flash ya? Just kidding. Wouldn’t want ya to throw up or rain on your parade. Some things are better left to the iminagation.
    Quite an honor. Plus, you can take a few pulls off your flask filled with Irish Whiskey because you have a designated driver/chauffeur for the parade. Sweet.
    In other news, it’s all Obama’s fault.
    http://www.fresnobee.com/2015/02/14/4379465/california-police-chief-critical.html
    That police chief is not very Nevada City friendly.

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  10. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Paul Emery you have come along way from a Euroean Taxi/drinker expert to the King of Nevada City’s Mardi Gras. Wow! Congrats! Now does everyone get to see you throw beads? What a honor!

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  11. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    I’m just King for a day though. Come Monday morning I’m Clark Kent, humble reporter for KVMR radio.

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  12. Brad C. Avatar
    Brad C.

    Re: Iraqi WMD, (From the October NYT article)
    “All had been manufactured before 1991, participants said. Filthy, rusty or corroded, a large fraction of them could not be readily identified as chemical weapons at all. Some were empty, though many of them still contained potent mustard agent or residual sarin. Most could not have been used as designed, and when they ruptured dispersed the chemical agents over a limited area, according to those who collected the majority of them.”
    Yes, everyone knew Saddam had WMD – but they were not a threat since most were unusable – they were duds – so why invade? Could the CIA have bought them without us invading Iraq? That is what spies do!
    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/14/world/middleeast/us-casualties-of-iraq-chemical-weapons.html

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  13. drivebyposter Avatar
    drivebyposter

    Dunno what the utter fixation on WMD’s is all about, and chemical weapons hardly count compared to nuclear explosives or well-crafted biological weapons (ala Biopreparat, the latter being probably more deadly than nukes as the technology improves). At least it’s not as silly as the ‘Iraqis were armed by the USA’ meme.
    Basically, a policy decision was made to topple the Iraqi government, a casus belli was needed, and it seemed a reasonable bet that the Iraqi government had a pile of something that could be declared as WMDs.
    The important question is whether it served US national interest to overthrow the Iraqi government, and if so, whether it made sense to try to construct a new state (and culture) there or to merely hand the reins to the next strong man in line.
    Viewing the whole situation as WMD = war strikes me as naive.

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  14. Gregory Avatar
    Gregory

    Brad C, the main reason for invading was that were were still technically in a shooting war. The first Iraq war, with bipartisan and UN support was after Saddam’s Iraq annexed Kuwait, their Sudentenland. “Desert Shield” was the first operation, then “Desert Storm”. Rather than let Schwartzkopf drive to Baghdad, there was a cease fire with the Baathists agreeing to UN supervision of their destruction of their ability to wage war, including the destruction of their WMD.
    BTW I was firmly against Desert Storm and Shield; it was not our affair that one horrible monarchy was invaded by another in the middle east, but Dems and the GOP were firmly together on it, and James Baker, an GHW Bush white house grand muckymuck was memorable in telling Americans we were doing it for Jobs for Americans. It was profitable… we managed to explode huge amounts of things that go boom that were nearing the end of their shelf life, and the likes of Japan paid us for our trouble. We made money with that one.
    To make a long story short, Iraq didn’t follow any of the UN directives and they continued to take potshots at US and other country’s aircraft keeping Hussein’s aircraft away from bombing Kurds and other uppity populations he wanted to wipe out.
    After 9/11 Iraq stepped up their efforts to help martyrs turn Israeli schoolbusses into smoking piles of red goo, and in an oft forgotten detail, Putin twice informed Bush II that Russian intelligence operating in Iraq caught wind of Iraqi intent to sponsor terrorist acts in the USA.
    Hussein was waking a tightrope… a kabuki of keeping UN inspectors at bay while keeping their neighbor believing they had WMD and paying off enough UN underlings with Oil For Palaces graft to keep the Security Council from agreeing with US hawks. All they had to do to stop the invasion was to actually prove to the UN and the US that all that old stuff (like anthrax) was properly destroyed, but then their neighbors to whom they had a history of being unneighborly would know they were paper tigers.

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  15. George Rebane Avatar

    BradC 236pm – I think you’re missing the point. No one, including the NYT, has discounted or denied Saddam’s shipping his Schedule A WMDs to Syria before the invasion. Having these less than pristine Schedule B left behind and then sold lends credence to the fact that the Sched A WMDs existed. Recall that he had literally an unlimited supply of such chemical WMDs from the USSR that he used with abandon against Iranians during their almost decade long war. You have to be pretty naïve to believe that Russia quit supplying Saddam after the USSR fell and that his pre-invasion WMDs were all like the ones the CIA quietly bought.

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  16. joe smith Avatar
    joe smith

    It appears that Pugslie bit off more than he could chew . . . if that is a possibility. After blogging about how that dastardly Union newspaper had the balls to print a picture of the Joe Cain Grand Marshal (Jim Hemig) leading the parade, he launced into a tirade decrying how The Union never misses a beat to toot its own horn. After mentioning The Union, by name nearly a dozen times in a single blog, I called to Pugslie’s attention that he had done them a great service. Within the hour, the article was pulled. With Fat Tuesday coming up tomorrow, I wonder what Pugslie will have up his (tight fitting) sleeve?

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  17. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Well George, Rumsfeldt himself is on record there were no WMD’s and that reports there were were based on false intelligence.
    “However, intelligence reports – now shown to have been false – that Iraq possessed so-called WMDs was the main reason for going in, Rumsfeld said.
    “No question it was the big one,” he said. Asked if the United States would not have invaded if the administration didn’t believe Iraq had the weapons of mass destruction, Rumsfeld said: “I think that’s probably right.”
    He criticized the source known as “Curveball” – an Iraqi defector who admitted his claims that Iraq possessed WMDs were false – but stopped short of condemning the U.S. intelligence community.”
    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/20/rumsfeld-wmds-werent-only-reason-for-war-in-iraq/

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  18. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Paul Emery, your BDS is showing. Is that caused by age?

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  19. George Rebane Avatar

    PaulE 704pm – Lord Keynes famously replied to a reporter, ‘When new evidence is presented, I change my mind. What do you do?’

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  20. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Ok, way off the current thread of WMDs and all the woulda, coulda, shouldas, this link in a very vague way might fall under Dr. Rebane’s topic of municipalities fiiling for Chapter 9 bankruptcy, thus screwing CalPers.
    Warning, it is as long as a book and written for dummies like…well, like me.
    Even picks on our Golden State and reminds me of Greece. Favorite paragraphs:
    “The baby boomer generation is going to be the first generation in the last 150 years that will break the deal that is implicitly made with previous generations. Each generation heretofore has agreed of die in an actuarially definable period of time. That way pensions get funded and wealth is transferred on.
    I think there is every likelihood that it won’t happen this time. The boomer generation is going to live far longer and use more resources in doing so than any previous generation has done.”
    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/dont-be-a-pension-fund-manager-2015-2#ixzz3RyIRe3xD
    http://www.businessinsider.com/dont-be-a-pension-fund-manager-2015-2

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  21. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Well George can you point me to one major Bush officio who is willing to stand up and say unequivocally that the WMD’s in Syria came from Iraq. Rumsfeldt says that their source (Curve Ball) ADMITTED he lied.

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  22. George Rebane Avatar

    PaulE 825pm – No I cannot, as if that were material to this debate. Everyone backing Iraq’s invasion, Repubs and Dems, have been beaten into various forms of submission about Saddam’s WMDs. And no one today sees any profit in starting to recant or reevaluate their previous statements or prudent silences. Let sleeping dogs lie and all that. It is only those of us here in the hustings, who have nothing to lose, to continue working that field, turning over new shovelfuls and examining every shard to support our established stances.

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  23. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    This reminds me of the elderly couple who were driving down the old narrow country lane. The wife leaned over and in astonishment said to her husband,”Do you realize you are going 50 mph!” The husband replied, “So are you!”.

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  24. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Seeing that it is acknowledged that according to Rumsfeld poor intelligence waqs a problem that led to a faulty assumption that Saddam had wmd’s are you willing to revisit my list of scenerios?
    Concerning the “Bush lied” segment of this post can we agree that concerning WMD’s there are four possible scenarios.
    1 Bush Lied
    2 He was fed faulty intelligence by the CIA and others that he based his decision on
    3 That WMD’s did exist but were either hurried out of the country or are still there and never discovered.
    4. Bush/Cheney created a culture of not wanting to know
    Pick one or add other options

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  25. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    The answer is….envelop please…Groundhog Day, The Movie!

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  26. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Bill, Paul Emery is experiencing deja vu all over again. What a bore!

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  27. drivebyposter Avatar
    drivebyposter

    True.
    True.
    True.
    True.
    Probably some other stuff.
    I wonder sometimes what internal wiring people (and that’s all people) have which requires building explanatory models that are simplified below any level of usefulness.
    Maybe that’s why AIs will take over the world, they’ll have the ability to construct and work with partial truths.

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  28. Paul Emery Avatar

    Give it a go Todd. Which scenario do you think is most likely the truth ?

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  29. Brad C. Avatar
    Brad C.

    George 6:00pm – well, there ya go. If the Schedula A WMD were shipped to Syria before the invasion- we invaded the wrong country!
    You would think the CIA could have bought a couple more Schedule A warheads while they were cleaning up the rest of Saddam’s toxic waste. Does anyone think that nobody in Iraq kept a few “A” bombs in a spyder hole somewhere?

    Like

  30. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Paul Emery, 6:49am, nope, this is as your pal Pelline says, old lettuce. Move on man, it will make you happier.

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  31. George Rebane Avatar

    BradC 707am – The pre-invasion truck convoys to Syria were suspected to contain everything from WMDs to senior officials’ families and household goods. In short, who knew?
    Agreed that there must still be some Sched A stuff stashed away in that big country. But they are probably very harmless now because of degradation over time and/or lack of delivery means (save for artillery shells). Remaining chemical WMDs in Iraq today is a moot subject. Iraq’s importance has always been and continues to be its oil and central location. Its arbitrary borders encompassing the Sunni, Shia, and Kurds are the unfortunate legacy of the post-WW1 Churchill and his peremptory character.

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  32. Paul Emery Avatar

    Sorry Todd if I asked you to think. My pal Pelline? That’s a hoot.

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  33. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    So why are you posting as Harry Bush on my site? Come on Paul Emery, you know Pelline is your pal. What a hoot!

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  34. Paul Emery Avatar

    Todd
    I am not Harry Bush. You made that up. I always post in my own name even when I lower my standards ane visit your blog.
    Also you know nothing about my relatio0nship with Pelline. I won’t talk about on these pages. I suggest you talk to George about it. Until then shut the fuck up. You are only making a fool of yourself with those who know.

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  35. Paul Emery Avatar

    George
    I don’t think you need any further evidence to illustrate my point about the shallow assumptions that sometimes infect your blog. This is a case in point.

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  36. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Looks like I tweaked a nerve there with Paul Emery. Why so defensive? If you are Pelline’s pal just admit it. Also, the Harry Bush poster on my blog uses all your talking points so it appears I am right. Lastly, why use such profanity? It makes you look foolish in the eyes of the community. My blog even welcomes posters such as you Paul Emery, but I do have to hold my nose. LOL!

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  37. Paul Emery Avatar

    Todd
    You are accusing me of being a liar when you insist I am Harry Bush. To quote Richard Thompson “Don’t push me I’m half way out of my seat.”

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  38. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Putting words in people’s mouths again?

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  39. George Rebane Avatar

    Gentlemen, I think you both have again confused the rest of us with people who give a crap.

    Like

  40. Paul Emery Avatar

    It looks like Jeb, the Bush supports # 2 (failure of intelligence) of my multiple choices on the question of WMD’s
    16 February 2015 at 09:33 PM
    “Using the intelligence capability that everybody embraced about weapons of mass destruction was not, turns out to not be accurate,” Jeb Bush said, being sure to note, accurately, that the intelligence estimate of Iraq’s WMD capabilities was shared by many other nation’s intelligence agencies. ”
    http://news.yahoo.com/jeb-bush-tiptoes-into-critique-of-his-brother-s-iraq-legacy-202116360.html;_ylt=AwrTceIjE.VU_asA8RQnnIlQ

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  41. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Anyone but a democrat. That is what the country’s voters are saying. Tweety bird could run and beat the democrat/.

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