Prediction Derby

February 2015
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Prediction Derby_4feb15

04 February 2015

George Rebane

Well, let me kick things off with a quick take on a couple of Republican and one Democrat politicians. Hopefully, these can also serve as examples that invite other readers to offer their own updates in the Prediction Derby comment streams.

Scott Walker update – given all his activities in the recent past that now adds his going after Romney’s former contributors, I judge that a this behavior is at least 20 times more likely of someone preparing to declare his candidacy, rather than just sticking his toe in the water and planning to pull out later. Hence, here L=20 will be used in today’s update. This updates the prior probability of 0.5 to 0.95 = 20*0.5/(20*0.5 + 1 – 0.5) that Walker will declare his candidacy. (See the pdf download here for the source of the update formula.)

Jeb Bush update – given all his activities in the recent past, and current money raising efforts, he is now defending that, if he runs, he would be running on his own accomplishments, and not building Bush3 on the shoulders of Bush2 and Bush1. In light of Romney’s pulling out after similar work to recreate his name and attract big money contributors, I assess the likelihood for this recent evidence as L = 10, that is the chances he would be blowing his own horn now are ten times as high as if he would be doing this as a candidate ready to pull out of the race. This updates his prior probability of 0.5 to 0.91 = 10*0.5/(10*0.5 + 1 – 0.5) that Jeb will declare his candidacy.

Hillary Clinton update – given that she has been obviously preparing herself ever since she resigned as SecState, and her recent announcement that she will delay her decision to run until later toward summer in order to let the Republican dust settle, I give her likelihood for the sum of this evidence as L = 5. She is still being too careful and looks like she knows some yet to be disclosed hard knocks are coming her way that the Repubs will not unleash until she commits to a candidacy. This updates her prior probability of 0.5 to 0.83 = 5*0.5/(5*0.5 + 1 – 0.5) that Hillary will declare her candidacy.

The updated charts are below.

Posted in Critical Thinking & Numeracy, Current Affairs, Our Country

4 responses to “Prediction Derby_4feb15”

Paul Emery

05 February 2015

I once again have to remind readers that no Republican will be nominated that does not support the Trans Pacific partnership. That eliminates any candidate with legitimate Conservative credentials. Not a problem with the Dems since Hillary, like her hubby are big time supporters.

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Bill Tozer

08 February 2015

Since Ben Carson spoke recently, does that more the needle? Dr. Carson is so far down he has nowhere to go but up. 6% in one staw poll and 9% in another state straw poll.
The good news is that Dr. Carson is ahead of Uncle Joe “The Shotgun” Biden at this time the last time The Shotgun ran for his party’s nomination. Joe even got as high as 3% in one state poll, but other than that rarely cracked the 2% barrier. Now we have Uncle Joe just one heartbeat from sitting in Obama’s chair. Only in America.
https://www.facebook.com/PatriotPost/photos/pb.51560645913.-2207520000.1423429961./10152796259460914/?type=3&theater

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George Rebane

08 February 2015

BillT 122pm – As point of clarification, a potential candidates ranking in the polls for picking a preferred president probably has little to do with the probability that he will declare his candidacy. Recall that this is what this Prediction Derby is trying to estimate – what is the probability that a given potential candidate will declare his candidacy.
If you wish, you could come up with an argument fro a likelihood that the most recent poll numbers swayed Dr Carson this way or that, but his low current poll ratings of 6% or 9% do not mean that that those are also the probabilities that he will declare to run.
Your argument would be such as: Candidates at this stage of the campaign who get such low poll numbers drop out of the race before declaring candidacy twice (or three times, or four times, or…) as often as not. This would let you set L = 1/2 and use it in the update formula for Ben Carson. Is that what you want to do?

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Bill Tozer

08 February 2015

Nope, just thought Dr. Carson is moving closer to declaring his candididacy. He is undeclared as of this moment, but speaking at events where straw polls are taken. I suppose that one could argue that with each passing week, all of those who end up tossing their hats into the ring are moving closer to giving a run at the Golden Ring a big thumbs up. The others are drawing, over time, closer to giving the thought the big thumbs down. Then there will be some that are for it before they were against it, as you pointed out. That you for the clarification and your generous forbearance. I am a worm and shall go back to my castings pile.

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