Rebane's Ruminations
January 2015
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George Rebane

Our universe is a very uneven and bumpy place.  In our corner when we seek to impose ‘equality’, ‘balance’, and avoid ‘discrimination’, we have to take care how we go about smoothing things out, lest we also smooth out what is left of our humanity.

Private sector union membership continues its decline.  When workers are given a choice, they choose not ‘to organize’ and threaten the future of their jobs with mandates for artificially high wages.  Overall union membership fell from 11.3 to 11.1%.  Already low, in 2014 private sector union membership dropped from 6.7 to 6.6%.  The dismal story of government employees, in jobs where performance at best is optional, is that union membership actually increased from 35.3 to 35.7%.  These are the gravy train workers who make up half of America’s unionized labor and must organize to threaten shutdown of critical agencies and departments if their demands for wages and impossible benefits contracts are not honored.  Their unions allow no other basis upon which to determine their compensation packages.

The EU has discovered quantitative easing.  QE the new alternative to national austerity programs to rein in government spending, programs that have not sat all that well with populations grown extremely dependent on the government tit.  So the ECB (European Central Bank) will start printing new euros with which it will buy €60B worth of sovereign member nation’s debt each month.  This essentially becomes a supply of almost free money to the several nation states.  The failure of Europe’s austerity programs arises from their having been managed so as to shrink the wealth creating private sectors while growing (you guessed it) the wealth consuming public sectors.

Holman Jenkins Jr in the 24jan15 WSJ observes that “Nobody asks: How can we make our societies ones in which people find opportunity?  They worry about the distribution of income but not the absence of income-creating opportunities for individuals.”

In America we have come to ape the socialist Europeans in many ways, including the imposition of ever higher job destroying minimum wages.  (Yes, even liberal economists now agree that ever higher minimum wages destroy jobs, the kind which are most needed by the young and unskilled to begin their climb up the economic ladder.  The ‘whether’ part of that debate is over; now we are dickering about the ‘how much’ part of the damage that minimum wages cause.  Consider that in the EU unemployment among the younger workers exceeds 22%.)  Our butt stupid administration – what would you expect with Valerie Jarrett on Obama’s shoulder doing the man’s frontal lobe processing? – insists that minimum wage jobs be compensated at a rate to allow the worker to support a family of four.  Most people are aghast at such a premise, but enough are either blithely ignorant or terminally stupid about the implications of such a policy as to keep Team Obama taking comfort from the polls and successfully trolling for their votes.

The demonstrated result of all this is economic stagnation as demonstrated in Europe and Japan.  Jenkins summarizes it nicely – “The essence of Europe’s malaise has long been a politics tilted heavily toward protecting those who have jobs from those who want them, where the biggest losers are the young and unskilled, and where stagnation is the general fate.”  As again confirmed by our socialist President Obama with his target policy of taxing private 529 education savings accounts  –

If you have reached the ability to save, you are a class enemy of the people because only government should be the guarantor of your future.

Clarity on the Keystone XL pipeline.  A reader sent me these explanatory graphics from Bloomberg which should be understood by all who engage in debating its construction.  (Unfortunately the graphics designer has yet to understand the proper use of the color palette.  There is a reason we went from black to whiteboards which still eludes.)  The second graphic puts the North American distribution of Canadian oil into a global context, the impact of which will trump any Keystone XL decision we wind up taking.

KeystoneXL1

KeystoneXL2

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23 responses to “Scattershots – 25jan14”

  1. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Along with QE in Europe we see Greece on the brink of financial chaos if the Syriza Party takes control:
    http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150125/eu–greece_election-40e37fc49a.html
    It never ceases to amaze me that humans in general can not grasp the meaning of the phrase – “there is no free lunch”.
    Both QE and a decision (now possible in Greece) to stiff the creditors will always result in the producers of wealth getting shafted. Eventually you get less participation of the producers in the world economy. The most onerous dictatorship can not force the kind of goods and value production needed to feed and house and equip the world’s population. No wonder there are so many preppers. All of them have in common the idea that they need to reduce their own economy down to just their own family. I have no more confidence than the preppers in our economy, but I don’t see a massive collapse as much as just a barely controlled downward drift of our life style into a dismal eastern Euro socialist drab mess.

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  2. Russ Steele Avatar

    ATHENS, Greece (AP) — A Greek state TV exit poll was projecting that anti-bailout party Syriza had won Sunday’s parliamentary elections – in a historic first for a radical left-wing party in Greece.
    But it was unclear whether Syriza had won a decisive enough victory over Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’ incumbent conservatives to govern alone. For that, they need a minimum 151 of parliament’s 300 seats.
    The exit poll on Nerit TV projected Syriza as having won with between 35.5 and 39.5 percent – or 146-158 seats, compared to Samaras’ New Democracy with 23-27 percent – or 65-75 seats.

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  3. George Rebane Avatar

    The Greeks’ Syriza party has successfully sold denial of austerity as a contributor to fiscal redemption. In America our progressives sell the exact same denial, only we still have a sizeable wealth creation class. But every program put forth by the Left on both the federal and states level is designed to whittle down that advantage. And this is being done, as Obama himself acknowledged, not for any economic benefit, but only to promote a socialist interpretation of national “fairness” – i.e. for ideological reasons. The terminus of all this kind of policies has been shown to be equal opportunity destitution.

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  4. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: George Rebane | 25 January 2015 at 10:43 AM
    Good for the Greeks! Voting for the socialists is invariably idiotic but I wouldn’t let myself be saddled by the international banking cartel through piss poor loan terms negotiated by idiot Greek politicians in order to shoehorn Greece into the EU.
    I hope everyone takes it in the shorts on this one!

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  5. Walt Avatar

    On the XL issue, Canada can build pipes East and West. They will sell that oil no matter what our ECO idiots try. The ECO idiots have yet to come up with an viable alternative to oil. Got a windmill for your car yet? Just the act of driving will generate enough power through it to keep you moving?
    They took sails off ships for a reason. The ECO gang has yet to put them back.
    HELL! Even my blueprints for wind power for ships got round filed. Seen those “egg beater” windmills? Those connected to mechanical gear boxes to turn the ship’s screws, didn’t pass muster. ( it doesn’t matter which way the wind blows)

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  6. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    “Good for the Greeks!” Nobody put a gun to their heads to take the money in the first place. They didn’t seem to have any problem spending the money. If they didn’t like the terms of the loans, they shouldn’t have signed on. I’d love to know where they expect to get their next tranche of moolah if they flip off the creditors. It’s no different than our country’s spoiled little brats that took out massive loans for worthless degrees and now cry about having to pay it back. Boo and Hoo. The only pity I have for them all is their ongoing greed and stupidity. Instead of learning from their mistakes they turn to politicians that whisper in their ear about how ‘unfair’ it all is. As I mentioned above, just keep it up and the producers will continue to see less and less reason to contribute.

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  7. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Scott Obermuller | 25 January 2015 at 01:03 PM
    Take it up with the Greek political class Scott! They were the ones who got themselves into this mess!

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  8. Walt Avatar

    Bloody great. I drew up a set of crude plans back in the 80s when I saw one of the first ones at Sandia Labs. ” Hay!! that might actually power a boat prop!!”.. But smarter men than me (according to the sheepskin on the wall) said “no dice.. it’ll never work.”
    Heck.. It could be made out of truck parts. One rear end, drive line, transmission and clutch assembly, and off the the prop..
    Shit… Who can I sue??
    Well, it still might not work right, since it’s not in common use today. OIL is still the way to go.

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  9. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    International Banks and all Soverign Debt investment funds have been greatly reducing their exposure to Greek Soverign debt since the sheep herders last pounded their spoons and had their temper tantrums to get their bailout just 31 months ago. I hope they tell the creditors to go pound sand. That will open the door for Mercel & Co. to gently show Grrece the door out of the European Union. Little Greece has negatively impacted the value of the Euro for too long. Let Greece be Greece and goat head soup to each other..
    The first thing I would do if made King of The Olive Pickers is to proclaim Greek barbers not longer get a 10% pay hike for hazard pay. If they cannot handle a pair of scissors, then they can’t handle their jobs. Let the fires and burning of cars and feta cheese begin.
    Spain, Portuggal, and Ireland’s economies are far better off than they were 31 months ago. Not out of the woods, but no longer a sinking stone around the EU’s neck. But not Grrece. Time to lance the boil, or better yet, time to give the Gyrros a noose and let them hang themselves. Burn, baby, burn.

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  10. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: George Rebane | 25 January 2015 at 01:59 PM
    Yes…..we’ve never complained that our elected officials campaigned saying one thing and then doing exactly the opposite after the election. Is the Greek electorate filled with dunderheads…..you betcha! Does that change the fact that Banks and politicians colluded and now find themselves sans paddle?
    Suck it EU and ECB! I look forward to seeing the whole house of cards collapse.

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  11. fish Avatar
    fish

    Grexit: Reality?
    The usual list of pundits are coming out with their various nostrums about the Greek elections going on right now, and they all focus on one thing — a debt is a debt, and must be paid (somehow.)
    Wrong.
    Lending prudence only occurs when the risk of default is present should you extend credit foolishly!
    It is beyond question that Greece was extended credit by various members of the EU (and the ECB itself) when it was incapable of paying as agreed under the current economic paradigm in place at the time.
    This didn’t happen only when Greece “got in trouble”, it happened for well over a decade prior; indeed, it can be argued that it occurred on the first first day Greece was part of the Eurozone!
    Erecting the middle finger was the right thing to do when Greece first got in trouble and it still is. Let’s remember that the Euro treaties provide no means of forced exit; that is, the members of the Eurozone can refuse to extend further credit to Greece but they can neither force the nation off the Euro nor can they abrogate the duty-free trade access!
    When you’re spending more than you take in the only sane thing to do is to stop that. But nothing says you have to pay what you allegedly owe and recourse is strictly defined by the agreement in question. Virtually all lending to a government is inherently unsecured because there is no property deed given to be held in escrow, as is sometimes the case with private lending arrangements.
    In other words you simply take the debtor government’s word they will pay.
    But nothing binds them to pay.
    Even if their Constitution allegedly binds them, Constitutions can be changed through entirely lawful process.
    What Greece should do is repudiate the debt. All of it. If they need to vote through a change to their Constitution to do that, then do so. This will immediately cut off their access to further credit but that’s good, not bad.
    You cannot get out of debt by borrowing more money. The two options to get out of debt are to pay it down and erect the middle finger toward the creditors. In the case of a sovereign nation that cannot pay the correct choice is often to erect the middle finger; after all, the other alternative, to run said “primary surplus”, requires cutting spending at least as much and nearly always more than does repudiation!
    Give the Eurozone and ECB this Greece — they have it coming:

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229774

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  12. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    So fish will be investing heavily in Greek debt once they blow off the ECB. Right. The people of Greece elected the greedy politicians because of their promises to the greedy Greek citizens. And they financed it with all with debt. Now they can’t pay it back or even the bailout. I don’t have to ‘take it up’ with anyone. I’m just explaining that when the Greeks get done with the ‘fish’ cheer, they won’t have any thing to cheer about at all.

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  13. George Rebane Avatar

    Messrs fish and Tozer – Agree with both of you. And may I remind you that one of the benefits of being an RR reader is that you knew years ago exactly how to place your bets on Greece. The formula I developed is indeed unique, rational, and most useful for using global interest rates to place bets on shorting sovereign debts. For your review –
    http://rebaneruminations.typepad.com/rebanes_ruminations/2011/11/investors-playing-the-odds.html

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  14. fish Avatar
    fish

    Posted by: Scott Obermuller | 25 January 2015 at 03:41 PM
    “So fish will be investing heavily in Greek debt once they blow off the ECB.”
    Don’t know what I’ve said that allows you draw this conclusion? The Greeks are no good for it now. I can’t see any set of conditions that will make them good for it in the immediate future.
    “I don’t have to ‘take it up’ with anyone. I’m just explaining that when the Greeks get done with the ‘fish’ cheer, they won’t have any thing to cheer about at all.”
    Nope….you don’t. If they stuck to the renegotiated terms of the loans would they have any reason to cheer? I’m not saying it’s right, I’m not saying it’s ethical. It does appear though that this is the way it’s going to be!

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  15. Russ Steele Avatar

    UK Daily Mai, with lots of photos at the linkl:
    Greek election leaves Eurozone braced for ‘catastrophe’ as radical left-wing anti-austerity party wins historic election victory
    • Syriza soars ahead of ruling New Democracy with predicted 149 seats – just short of 151 it needs to rule outright PM Antonis Samaras conceded defeat after warning of ‘catastrophe’, adding: ‘The Greek people have spoken’
    • Syriza’s leader, aged just 40, promised to ‘restore the country’s lost dignity’ and ‘clash with old establishments’
    • Euro fell in trading on Australasian markets after result, which put ultra right wing Golden Dawn in third place
    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2925262/Greeks-polls-critical-snap-general-election.html#ixzz3PsnogSLG

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  16. George Rebane Avatar

    Greece’s restored dignity – how in hell do you look dignified as a country with riots and bread lines in your cities and towns as the country is fiscally flat on its ass, and no one is willing to lend them the next nickel? Maybe it’s the kind of dignity that North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela have been enjoying.

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  17. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    fish at 10:59 – “Good for the Greeks!” This is our disagreement, fish.
    There is no ‘good’ for the Greeks at all. They are in debt past their necks and have no one to blame but themselves. Stiffing the ECB will put them in worse trouble. Even if they are still in the EU how will they buy anything? As far as you lending them money, I was making a point you seem to continue to miss.

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  18. L Avatar
    L

    Truly, nothing new under the Sun.
    Bohlm & Voss shipyard in Hamburg built a full size, vertical axis sailing ship in the early 1920’s. The “sails” were cylinders, not egg beaters. I know because my father was a naval architect at the yard at the time. And, no, it didn’t work, at least not well enough to create a trend L.

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  19. L Avatar
    L

    Oops! Should be Blohm & Voss. They also built barges for river traffic with poured, reinforced concrete hulls and these were successful. L

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  20. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Walt, Bennie of Bennie & Cecil fame had the right idea with his propellor Bennie cap. Way ahead of its time, just like the Metropolian Nash.
    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/01/23/america-first-offshore-wind-project-dealt-major-setback-after-utilities-bolt/?intcmp=HPBucket

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