Rebane's Ruminations
December 2013
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George Rebane

[This is the transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 20 December 2013.]

If you have been following the non-political side of the news recently, you no doubt have picked up on a hot topic getting hotter – robots and robotics.  In these commentaries we have covered the social impact of robots, and there is more to be said about that.  But today there is a new buzz on new robot developments and how robots have already become part of our everyday lives.  By robots we mean software, machines, and humanoid looking characters that have more than a little intelligence built into them, and that intelligence is growing daily at an astounding rate.


If you have a smart phone, then you no doubt are familiar with your personal assistant Siri and Ms Google on iPhones, and other helpful and attentive ladies on the Android phones.  We no longer are amazed by the ability to speak to our assistant and tell her to do something like set a timer, wake us up, bring up our emerchant account, tell us the population of NYC, or direct us turn by turn to a restaurant in a strange town.  And we expect that β€˜lady’ to answer more complex questions in an instant, questions that would have taken us hours of research in days of yore.  How quickly we become used to things we no longer have to do ourselves.

With accelerating technology big companies like Google and Amazon are investing huge sums to acquire smaller nimbler companies that have worked nights and days to invent and build machines that autonomously drive cars through city traffic, four-legged creatures that carry heavy packs over rough terrain, and contraptions that print the most wondrous things in three dimensions, objects that used to take expert tool and dye makers and machinists weeks to fabricate.  Now you can make almost any part you can think of in a back room or garage using a 3D printer no larger than your dishwasher.

Today Japan leads the world in domestic robots.  Japan has a rapidly aging population and not enough young people to care for their elderly.  The obvious solution is humanoid robots that learn to do all manner of household tasks from vacuuming the living room, bringing and putting away things, to making you a nice cup of hot tea.  And they don’t mind being interrupted while doing one thing to respond to your urgent desire to have that tea, right now.

Companies like IBM are already selling extremely intelligent online physicians and healthcare specialists to health maintenance organizations and private practices, based on their now famous Watson supercomputer.  These super-human expert services will be delivered online so that a doctor or other healthcare worker can simply converse with the expert using normal speech.  The patient’s health data can be relayed either verbally, or uploaded in as a more massive datafile.  The resulting diagnosis, analysis, prescription, or recommended treatments will be computed in seconds, and available all over the globe to any subscriber of the service with internet connectivity.

More astounding advances have been made to put robots into classrooms, auto and aircraft maintenance installations, and even pairing them with artists to assist in composing, arranging, and orchestrating music.  Today there may still be places in the daily round where no one has thought of putting a robot to work, but just wait until tomorrow or the day after that.

The scary part is that intelligent machines are taking over thousands of jobs that provided a decent living to human workers.  As consumers, we want robots everywhere in the pipeline from mining raw minerals to delivering the finished package to our door, simply because they do it better, more reliably, and at a lower cost to us.  But as breadwinners, those of us still in the workforce are beginning to wonder and ask the big question.  If machines are becoming as smart or smarter than we, and can do all these things for us, then what will be left for us to do in order to fulfill our lives in accomplishment and service?  In short, what then will we do to retain our humanity?  We haven’t tried to answer that question yet, but soon we must.

My name is Rebane, and I also expand on this and related themes on NCTV and georgerebane.com where the transcript of this commentary is posted with relevant links, and where such issues are debated extensively.  However my views are not necessarily shared by KVMR.  Thank you for listening, and have a Merry Christmas and a prosperous and productive 2014.

[Addendum]  More on this critical but universally ignored question from Forbes and The Washington Post.

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10 responses to “Then what will WE do?”

  1. Russ Steele Avatar

    Silicon Valley is the source for much of the robotic design and intelligent software development in California. There are other centers of expertise, but Silicon Valley is a hotbed of development, creating instant millionaires and billionaires when their creativity and hard work is recognized by the market. This growing wealth in Silicon Valley has some long term consequences. For example high paid engineers and technicians are driving up the cost of housing in the region, forcing lower paid profession out of the housing market. Protests have erupted in San Francisco, with protestor blocking the plush busses that pick up and deliver these high paid individuals to their Silicon Valley work places.
    Now there is a movement in Silicon Valley to create their own state, dividing California up into six states, with one named Silicon Valley, including the Counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, and Monterey. More details on this Silicon Valley initiative can be found at TechCrunch: http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/19/tim-draper-six-californias-secede-silicon-valley-ballot-initiative/
    Money talks and the robot makers, artificial intelligence creators and all the techies that are making our life easier are expressing their own self-interest, living in the best locations, riding to work in plush busses and now proposing to create there own state. Those that lack the skill sets to participate will soon become observers, wondering how did this happen. Asking the question of this post β€œwhat will we do”?

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  2. Gregory Avatar

    Buy robot insurance!
    http://martl.tripod.com/TheRobot/robot/oldglory.html
    The more expensive labor gets, the better automation looks and this has always been the case. Regarding the possibility of a singularity and its dangers, I remain unconvinced but I don’t expect my heresies to be of any great concern… an I told you so after the event would be sufficient.

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  3. Ryan Mount Avatar

    Technology is a key part of enabling lower-level medical practitioners (nurse practioners, PCPs, etc.) to perform diagnosis and treatment options for patients. The solutions are rolling out as I type this.
    The need for expensive specialization will be automated. And as my specialist doctor friends have already told me, their private practice days are numbered as they assume that they will either “go Galt” or less romantically and more practically (they do have 200K+ of student loans to pay off), head into more centrally managed clinics, treatment centers or hospitals. And this is just because of the pending ACA and subsequent single payer schemes.
    They also have told me that future student loans, according to provisions in PPACA, will be tied to government service in the same way that other government agencies “sponsor” college tuition in lieu of future indentured service to a government agency. That seems a little tin-foil-hat-like, and I have found no evidence that I can find in the PPACA. But I take their word for it.
    Add in massive information automation, not to mention mechanical automation, and the demand for specialized skills becomes a dinosaur.

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  4. Russ Steele Avatar

    There is more in this article at the Atlanta.
    Almost Human: The Surreal, Cyborg Future of Telemarketing
    Americans are fielding millions of calls from bright, energetic telemarketers, but what they don’t know is that they’re talking to machines… Sort of.
    http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/12/almost-human-the-surreal-cyborg-future-of-telemarketing/282537/

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  5. Russ Steele Avatar

    In two of the three MOOC Courses that I have taken so far the quizzes and tests were all computer scored. The third was partially computer scored, quizzes, and the remaining mapping final was scored by other students in the class. We each had to grade three mapping projects.

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  6. fish Avatar
    fish

    We each had to grade three mapping projects.
    Math or Geography, Russ?

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  7. George Rebane Avatar

    Gregory 912am – From your pen to God’s ear πŸ˜‰

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  8. Russ Steele Avatar

    Fish@01:37
    We had to produce a geographical map showing some uniqueness of a community using Arc/GIS OnLine. I showed the broadband disparity in my neighborhood by census track. I evaluated maps show the history of development along an English river, marketing reach of a project in an Indian City and was unable to open the map files on third project. It was about tourism development in Africa, if I remember correctly it was Kenya.
    This Penn State Course, Maps and the Geospatial Revolution will be offered again in April 2014. It was a most interesting and well run course. Video lectures, then geospatial demonstrations, then work projects using Arc/GIS OnLIne. It was a great course, I learned a lot and am still learning as I use Arc/GIS OnLine in my consulting projects.

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  9. Gregory Avatar

    George, of course, your singularity , like that of religious cults expecting a rapture, can always to be said to be just around and there will never be a good time for me to say ‘I told you so’, so I might as well do it now and get it over with. πŸ˜‰

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  10. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    “Today Japan leads the world in domestic robots. Japan has a rapidly aging population and not enough young people to care for their elderly. The obvious solution is humanoid robots that learn to do all manner of household tasks from vacuuming the living room, bringing and putting away things, to making you a nice cup of hot tea. And they don’t mind being interrupted while doing one thing to respond to your urgent desire to have that tea, right now.”
    Japan leads the world in domestic robots because they are closer to their work.

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