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May 2013
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George Rebane

That is the title of a short but extremely important column by Professors Harrison Schmitt and William Happer that appeared in the 9may13 WSJ.  Readers know that I am a longtime skeptic of the ongoing climate change hysteria (especially the AGW part), and for technical reasons believe that results from data diddling and climate modeling have been at best questionable to incompetent science, or at worst blatently formulated to achieve political ends.

CO2Schmitt and Happer present a science side of the CO2 phantasmagoria that IMHO has not received anywhere near the consideration it should have in the ongoing debate on the global insanity and local trans-hysteria (witness California’s AB32) that is going on.  The piece starts –

Of all of the world’s chemical compounds, none has a worse reputation than carbon dioxide. Thanks to the single-minded demonization of this natural and essential atmospheric gas by advocates of government control of energy production, the conventional wisdom about carbon dioxide is that it is a dangerous pollutant. That’s simply not the case. Contrary to what some would have us believe, increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will benefit the increasing population on the planet by increasing agricultural productivity.

The cessation of observed global warming for the past decade or so has shown how exaggerated NASA’s and most other computer predictions of human-caused warming have been—and how little correlation warming has with concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As many scientists have pointed out, variations in global temperature correlate much better with solar activity and with complicated cycles of the oceans and atmosphere. There isn’t the slightest evidence that more carbon dioxide has caused more extreme weather.

The current levels of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere, approaching 400 parts per million, are low by the standards of geological and plant evolutionary history. Levels were 3,000 ppm, or more, until the Paleogene period (beginning about 65 million years ago). For most plants, and for the animals and humans that use them, more carbon dioxide, far from being a “pollutant” in need of reduction, would be a benefit. This is already widely recognized by operators of commercial greenhouses, who artificially increase the carbon dioxide levels to 1,000 ppm or more to improve the growth and quality of their plants.

The whole article, from which the graphic was filched, can be read here.  Such information will make little impact on the lay reader whose beliefs about AGW are already well calcified.  But they should be an eye-opener for the serious intelligent reader still seeking direction on whether or not to support the steady “carbon footprint” diet that we are fed daily.

To keep up on the overall developments in the climate change forum please visit Russ Steele’s ‘The Next Grand Minimum’ and Anthony Watts’ ‘Watts Up With That’.

[14apr13 update]  Reasonable people who made a case before t0 that Observable #1 may have been the cause of Observable #2, would reexamine their premises, let alone their conclusions, at some point after t0.  The rest will be unfazed by the observed data.

ReasonableCausality

 

Posted in , , , , ,

127 responses to “‘In Defense of Carbon Dioxide’ (updated 14apr13)”

  1. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    I haven’t even gotten into all the other reasons why Schmitt and Happers article is a bunch of foolish drivel yet because no one can rebut the botanical case.

    Like

  2. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Isn’t science exciting? We have a wonderful earth. I ain’t too sharp, but isn’t CO2 needed for life on this planet? I think trees are full of carbon and I like trees.
    When scientists try to reproduce DNA molecules in the lab, the by product is a goo, known as carbon. The goo is toxic to the DNA strand and destroys it. Makes me wonder about this evolution theory or how we all hold together.
    As a former collector of rare succulents from around the world, I know them plants are weird. Instead of breathing in oxygen and releasing CO2, some of them crazy plants breathe in CO2 and release oxygen. Ah, this is all too complex and wonderful for me to comprehend.

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  3. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Bill Tozer | 12 May 2013 at 07:29 AM
    Yeah, just for the record, no climate scientist is saying that there is a risk of photosynthesis disruption because of CO2. That is the foundation of the logically fallacy in the good doctors’ point in the article, that more CO2 is better for plants, thus it is not a risk in any other way.
    Just because Arsenic, which also occurs in nature, is good for a few species of bacteria because they can use it to metabolize oxygen, does not mean you want it in your groundwater.
    And Bill, I am the one making the point that this is not too difficult for you to understand; it is Gregory who is making the case that his ‘ologists’ are better than your ‘ologists’ or my ‘ologists’.

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  4. Gregory Avatar

    “So these are the rational authors of “In Defense of Carbon Dioxide”, an astronaut and a Koch Brothers funded physicist who has never published a peer reviewed paper who spend his time calling the President a Nazi.” Frisch 9:34PM
    Except the piece you quoted never calls the President a Nazi. Frisch, did you lie?
    Your choice to dig up what you think is dirt on two scientists rather than play on the science is clearly the ad hominem fallacy at work. PBS also accepts Koch money… are they dupes?
    A public debate is not to settle the science, it’s to allow the public to judge the rationality of the actors on the scientific stage. The IQ2 debate moved a liberal NYC audience from being strongly accepting of the warmist argument to being skeptical, and the IPCC science brand has gone further downhill since then.
    Schmidt, who was given something of a Bronx cheer at one point in the 2007 debate now refuses to even sit down next to skeptics in a public forum. Why? He has everything to lose and nothing to gain. And he is losing.
    It isn’t that my “‘ologists’ are better than your ‘ologists’ or his ‘ologists’”… it’s that physicists are better at physics than weather historians are at predicting the future.

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  5. Gregory Avatar

    “Just because Arsenic, which also occurs in nature, is good for a few species of bacteria because they can use it to metabolize oxygen, does not mean you want it in your groundwater.” -Frisch
    What a parallel… an essential gas created and exhaled by animal life compared to a known poison. A difference is that we have a 500+ million year ocean temperature record that doesn’t correlate CO2 with temperatures… it correlates with galactic cosmic ray flux strength… that is, if you think physicists and geochemists have something to add to the argument.
    The danger from CO2 is suffocation, not runaway global warming.

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  6. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Gregory | 12 May 2013 at 08:31 AM
    Hey, I only posted Schmitt and Happers long history and association with industry funded public relations organizations as a response to your implication that I have an ulterior motive. It was not ‘my choice’, it was in response to your mud slinging and impugning motives. I can’t help it if you don’t do your research well enough to know that the people whose work you are defending are in the pocket of big oil and the Kochs’.
    And if your read Happers piece and don’t see that he was implying the President is a national Socialist, then you’re not reading the piece.
    Here is another prime piece of Happerism published in the Daily Princetonian in 2009 regarding the link between CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions causing a greenhouse effect:
    “This is George Orwell. This is the ‘Germans are the master race. The Jews are the scum of the earth.’ It’s that kind of propaganda…..Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. Every time you exhale, you exhale air that has 4 percent carbon dioxide. To say that that’s a pollutant just boggles my mind. What used to be science has turned into a cult.”
    What kind of idiot physicist compares the % of CO2 in exhalation with rising CO2 in the atmosphere and the greenhouse effect? It shows a serial attempt to influence the public through a basic mis-statement of science and the link between cause and effect.

    Like

  7. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Anyone know how I post graphs here?

    Like

  8. Gregory Avatar

    Let’s chat about what the real issue is… falsification. Steele posted this link:
    http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c017d42dfdbb4970c-pi
    It jibes with what I’ve seen in the past, apparently from the leaked draft of the next IPCC Assessment Report, so I’ll run with it.
    Steven Frisch, those models that have badly diverged from reality are, in the end, all you have for evidence that CO2 is dangerous. Those models, which fit temperature profiles that resulted from misunderstood natural factors by a theorized positive feedback model that mischaracterized clouds and aerosols, have all predicted a drastic warming that isn’t taking place.
    It’s time to back off, Steve. You don’t want your politicians fully invested in Global Warming in 2014 or 2016. Trust me. You’re in a long term slide to oblivion on this subject and the earlier you return to sanity the better off you will be.
    Of course, any political gains you make by capitulating earlier rather than later will be at my expense, but I’d just as soon be doing something else with my time than coping with your BS.

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  9. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Gregory | 12 May 2013 at 08:45 AM
    Greg, I think you are missing my point….both Arsenic and CO2 are naturally occurring substances….the issue is not their occurrence, it is the concentration of their occurrence, and the effect it has.
    Once again you are being intellectually dishonest….you never answered one of my original questions that would have put this entire nonsense to rest. Do you believe in the greenhouse effect? Is CO2 a greenhouse gas? Are the concentrations of CO2 higher now than they have been in about 3 million years? Do you believe that dumping 16 billion metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year has an anthropomorphic effect?

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  10. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    That you Mr. Frisch for your reasoned reply. Arsenic has many benefits. The world famous Outlaw Chili recipe contains arsenic for example. Add some arsenic to the chili and the Outlaw Chili is guaranteed to drive the in-laws out.
    A word of caution here. Do not add too much chili powder or cayenne pepper or else the in-laws will not consume the full bowl, thus diminishing the helpful effects of the arsenic

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  11. Gregory Avatar

    Frisch, the greenhouse warming due to CO2 is about 1C per doubling. Meaning 1C warmer than now if we ever manage to burn enough fuel to get to 800ppm. The rest is all the theorized positive feedback multipliers.
    Your point is a straw man, as the “natural substance” argument is not what the physicist you think is the idiot is making. It isn’t a poison, it has not been found to be the cause of warming in the past, and models that assume it does drive warming have grossly overestimated the temperature of the past six years.
    The models are demonstrably false. They have predicted temperatures that did not in fact occurr. In 6 years, the world’s temperatures are nearing the of breakout below the 95% confidence level… meaning only 5 chances of 100 that such a low temp could occur.
    Santer’s take? “It’s certainly the case that we got some of the forcings wrong… It’s likely we underestimated the true volcanic aerosol forcing, and may have underestimated the cooling effect of stratospheric ozone depletion.”
    In short, they’ll jigger the models and hope it agrees with reality six years from now.
    Stick to the facts for once… the link
    http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c017d42dfdbb4970c-pi
    shows the science that begat California’s “Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, the infamous (in some quarters) AB32 passed by the rocket scientists in Sacramento cheered on by the likes of Steven Frisch.
    The science claiming climate is dominated by positive feedbacks that would multiply any perturbation (not just CO2) has not been borne out by reality. That’s what the decisions were based on, and those decisions are strangling California with high energy costs, both direct and indirect.

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  12. Larry Wirth Avatar
    Larry Wirth

    Proving that arguing with self-confessed communists is a total waste of time. L

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  13. Russ Steele Avatar

    Steven,
    According to the UN/IPCC the true signature of water vapor positive feedback would be a “hotspot” in the troposphere above the equatoral region. After 17 year of intense CO2 emissions and troposphere observations the “hotspot” has failed to appear. Why 17 years? Because Ben Santer pleads with everyone that 17 years is really the true time span to measure the global warming trend. See Press Release: https://www.llnl.gov/news/newsreleases/2011/Nov/NR-11-11-03.html
    From the C3 Website: http://www.c3headlines.com/natural-negativepositive-feedback/
    Per the IPCC’s global warming hypothesis, at the very top of the troposphere, above the equator region, is the location (12km, 200hPa @ 20°N – 20°S) that triggers a positive climate feedback, which produces the mythical runaway, tipping point of accelerated, dangerous global warming, which of course is unequivocal and irrefutable, except when it isn’t. This location is often referred to as the tropical “hotspot,” supposedly an artifact of modern industrial/consumer human CO2 emissions.
    The high climate sensitivity programmed into the IPCC’s climate models is entirely dependent of this hotspot of positive feedback – with the hotspot, climate models predict a scary global warming range that spans from 2°C to 6°C.
    If there is no tropical upper troposphere hotspot, then there is no positive feedback, and thus, no climate change crisis as predicted by the IPCC. If there is no hotspot, then the IPCC hypothesis of CO2 caused global warming (AGW) is essentially proven false.
    Based on accepted physics, without the positive feedback triggered by the hotspot, surface global temperatures from a doubling of pre-industrial CO2 will increase by some +0.5° to 1.5°C. That is the range climate models predict (depending on the given climate model) if the “hotspot” does not exist. 

    What can we conclude from all this? Atmospheric CO2 levels over 350ppm do not cause a hotspot to occur and the climate sensitivity to CO2 is lower than expert assumptions. Thus, the IPCC models are wrong, there is no evidence of a positive feedback from increased levels of CO2. And, the AGW hypothesis of climate positive feedback is proven false after 17 years of empirical evidence failed to support it.

    Like

  14. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Larry, you just effectively proved your intellectual inferiority. You are off the island!

    Like

  15. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Of course I should be off the island as well. I do agree with Larry that this is a waste of time.
    Every response here by the Greg’s and Russ’ has been to prove that climate change does not exist. My point was that the basic case that the authors made, that CO2 should be considered by its contribution to commercial greenhouse operations, not its contribution to the greenhouse effect, is a logically fallacy. No one has disputed that point, and instead opted for attempting to divert attention to the case for/against AGW which is really a ‘religious’ point with you guys, not me. You can’t handle the challenge that climate change presents because it calls into question how the society and economy will be managed in the future, and that threatens your faith.
    The reason I posted the National Journal article was to highlight the cost for you. You are loosing, and are going to loose, this debate, because you will fail to convince people, largely due to illogical arguments like the one from Happer and Schmitt above. No different really than the way conservatarians have argued reproductive rights, immigration, health care, security and tax policy. You are holding on now because of the legacy of redistricting and the fact that it takes some people longer to enter the political process. These arguments just make you guys look like idiots and that is what is leading to you getting buried in the long run. Demographics and the dominant culture are against you.

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  16. George Rebane Avatar

    RussS 137pm – Your raising the ‘hotspot’ factor in modeling is another excellent indicator that such models spaghettied with many feedback loops, each having their own arbitrarily set gain and point of insertion, are pretty much hokey for deriving predictions with which policy decisions should be made, especially global ones like our globalists are promoting. I made my points about this aspect of understanding global warming, especially AGW, several years back and see little that I can profitably add now.
    However, what your citation again underlines, is the little known fact that ‘science’ still has an extremely poor understanding of what is known as the earth’s carbon cycle (that, of course, includes CO2 and the more important absorption sink of the world’s oceans along with the outgassing sources which overwhelm what humans can do. “The primary source of carbon/CO2 is outgassing from the Earth’s interior at midocean ridges, hotspot volcanoes, and subduction-related volcanic arcs.”)
    From records of past epochs it is clear that such outgassing has a large random component, is episodic, and far from a constant steady state process. To mess with models without knowing that seminal collection of mechanisms that affect the earth’s biosphere requires data diddling of the highest tomfoolery so as to obtain outputs that satisfy the political requirements for continued grant funding.
    Just for giggles, I might again bring up the notion of ‘earth’s temperature’, the calculation (not measurement) of which is an algorithmic enterprise. Among the many problems here, a significant one is the marrying of the modern data record to that of the paleo record. This requires more algorithmics to properly select and insert the still observable proxies into a formula that ultimately produces the earth’s continuous temperature record, sanctified by the IPCC, that then becomes the loudly chanted and cited consensual holy writ upon which all proper progressives genuflect.

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  17. l Avatar
    l

    Frisch, exactly what part of “no evidence” are you failing to comprehend? It simply doesn’t exist in any way, shape or form. There’s a long climb-down ahead for all of you warmunists and the sooner you start, the easier it will be for you to once again return to sanity. This discussion is much worse than just a waste of time, it’s a dialogue with the deaf, dumb and blind. Show us some evidence that our world is getting warmer, ’cause my thermometer says exactly the opposite. L

    Like

  18. Russ Steele Avatar

    If you want to see one of your costs as a result of the wackos in Sacramento and Truckee believing in AGW go here: http://wp.me/p2VED5-9P

    Like

  19. fish Avatar
    fish

    You can’t handle the challenge that climate change presents because it calls into question how the society and economy will be managed in the future, and that threatens your faith.
    Projection thy name is Frisch.

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  20. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Fish, you are too funny. Now you see what a loon the Frisch is in these pages.

    Like

  21. Gregory Avatar

    “You are loosing[sic], and are going to loose[sic], this debate, because you will fail to convince people”- Frisch
    Loosing? Frisch, with no warming in the satellite record for the better part of two decades and evidence of a new solar minimum which makes for little chance of natural variations zigging in your direction, it does appear it will be tightening up, and besides, the Washington Post poll doesn’t have the same optimism you or your source at the National Journal (it may be English Lit is one major that takes even less science than Poli “Sci” students) has regarding how the whole climate thing will be working out for ya.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/04/22/how-americans-see-global-warming-in-8-charts/

    Like

  22. Gregory Avatar

    “Projection thy name is Frisch.”
    fish, you beat me to that. Notice also that Frisch was posting at 3AM and posted again at 7:50AM… he may have only slept 4 hours or less. Poor guy may be loosing it.
    All Frisch can muster are empty political ad hominems against any and all scientists who disagree with the “consensus” he so wants to believe is valid. Look at the Washington Post poll I linked… by 2 to 1, people don’t think global warming will affect them, and by 3:2 we don’t believe any recent warming is mostly due to human activity.
    I suspect after the coldest start to Spring in US history, warming is getting even harder to sell.

    Like

  23. Larry Wirth Avatar
    Larry Wirth

    And Frisch, I apoligize for identifying you as an out and out communist, although all the evidence says exactly that. You could, indeed, merely be badly mistaken and essentially clueless. L

    Like

  24. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Larry, Fish, et al.
    I am never going to convince any of you that the projections of Russ, Gregory, George and other ‘scientists’ are inaccurate: what I have provided you with above is links to experts from NASA, Lawrence Livermore Laboratories, CalTech, Scripps, and about a dozen other entities that prove better than I ever could that the sages of Nevada County are wrong. You really don’t need me to repeat the science.
    But just for kicks here is another source identifying the threat to flora from climate change: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-common-plants-animals-threatened-by-climate-change-20130512,0,707585.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fnews%2Fpolitics+(L.A.+Times+-+Politics)
    Greg, sorry I misspelled ‘lose’, I trust you to know and fully internalize the meaning. It is nice to know though that all you can fall back on is polling.
    Finally, Larry, the communist charge? Really, I have been called a communist here for years by everyone who disagrees with my observations….just goes to prove that when push comes to shove Greg can’t call an ad hominem attack if it comes from someone who agrees with him.
    And I note, no one has rebutted the logically fallacy argument I make regarding the article by Happer and Schmitt………

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  25. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    And I can’t help but love the fact that Greg is looking at time stamps and surmising state of mind. I am better at 4 am than he is any time of the day!

    Like

  26. Gregory Avatar

    I don’t “fall back on polling”, Steve, that was purely to counter your claim that the realist side is somehow losing hearts and minds. While bad weather (hot, cold, wet or dry though it may be) tends to rile the masses when the Chicken Littles take up the cry, on the whole people don’t think they’re personally going to be affected. By 2 to 1, unless you think the WP is Fox News in sheep’s clothing.
    Regarding your bizarre claim there is a logical fallacy in the WSJ piece, let’s examine that.
    Frisch’s claim:
    “My point was that the basic case that the authors made, that CO2 should be considered by its contribution to commercial greenhouse operations, not its contribution to the greenhouse effect, is a logically fallacy.”
    The actual article:
    “Thanks to the single-minded demonization of this natural and essential atmospheric gas by advocates of government control of energy production, the conventional wisdom about carbon dioxide is that it is a dangerous pollutant. That’s simply not the case. Contrary to what some would have us believe, increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will benefit the increasing population on the planet by increasing agricultural productivity.”
    Golly, they sure do say CO2 has a beneficial effect on plant life, but the claim is that CO2 has been demonized leaving many to think it is a pollutant in the classic sense, something harmful, like CO. But do they claim people should not consider the greenhouse effect?
    “The cessation of observed global warming for the past decade or so has shown how exaggerated NASA’s and most other computer predictions of human-caused warming have been—and how little correlation warming has with concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As many scientists have pointed out, variations in global temperature correlate much better with solar activity and with complicated cycles of the oceans and atmosphere. There isn’t the slightest evidence that more carbon dioxide has caused more extreme weather.”
    Golly, they don’t say one shouldn’t consider the greenhouse effect, they point out the fact that the warming has been greatly exaggerated and is largely unrelated to CO2.
    Not a poison, not causing bad weather. Not a fallacious argument, unlike your “one of them was actually in a group that spent Koch money so their science must be wrong” ad hominem fallacy, one of many.
    Sorry Steve, you loose again.

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  27. George Rebane Avatar

    Gregory 808am – Thank you for your patience and taking the time to explain the latest fractured logic from SteveF (531pm). My reaction, given the past exchanges I’ve had with the man, was to simply roll my eyes heavenward, stifle a million possible repartees, and go on with life.

    Like

  28. Paul Emery Avatar

    Stephen
    AS a participant in this blog for several years my observation is that a sure sign of an argument running out of steam are accusations of being a Communist or having a mental health problem.

    Like

  29. Gregory Avatar

    Paul 959, Stephen is sleeping at his desk at the moment and will be getting back to you shortly.
    Stephen 5:58AM, it’s isn’t my job to defend you from ad hominems by others. Defend yourself; if you want a hint, stop initiating fights if you want fewer insults thrown your way.

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  30. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Liberalism is a mental disorder and the libs that post here are the poster kiddies. What a hoot! Also, they will always defend each other no matter what.
    Hell, Gregory will smack me and George when he has too keep us straight. PaulE and SteveF and the rest will never do that.

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  31. fish Avatar
    fish

    AS a participant in this blog for several years my observation is that a sure sign of an argument running out of steam are accusations of being a Communist or having a mental health problem.
    From the leftish side of the fray. As a recent participant in this blog (though a long term keyboard warrior elsewhere) my observation is that a sure sign of an argument (your side) running out of steam are accusations of being an impediment to the valiant work of the “administration”, being anti-science or a racist.
    Goes both ways Paul.

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  32. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    Enough! Lets get to the point. When will we all be burned up and fried like a Frito? Simple question and I will take the answer from the Left, Right, non affiliated, the good, the bad, or the Ugly. Meanwhile, I think I better get a thicker winter coat ready so I don’t freeze my hinney off like I have done the last 3 years waiting for the Big Bar-B-Que.

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  33. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    George,
    How deep is your head in the sand? I guess you don’t have to worry about it for much longer but your grandchildren will be suffering the consequences of your ignorance, stubbornness, and greed.

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  34. Gregory Avatar

    Ben, have you seen this bar graph of yearly temperature anomalies in Alaska?
    http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Change/TempChange.html
    Considering the USA has just had its coldest start to Spring in history and Europe’s experience is not much different, the Chicken Littles may have a hard time finding their dreams of a burning hell on Earth fulfilled anytime soon.
    Some, including astrophysicist turned weather gadfly Dr. Piers Corbyn think the planet has already turned to a mini Ice Age phase. It does appear the scary hot climate scare has run its course and we may be about to find out what a cold phase will do to modern civilization.
    Time will tell who has has their head where the sun never shines. The times, they are a changin’.
    “Let’s agree to disagree.”
    -Boris the Animal

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  35. George Rebane Avatar

    re Gregory’s 1055am – I have found in debating liberals about matters of science, that they do not address the matters of science (which appear inaccessible to many/most? of them), but stick to only citing anecdotal incidents and/or the names of individuals and institutions selling the kool-aid that goes with their established social ideology/agenda which they maintain equally remote from reasoned debate. Nevertheless, to benefit the still seeking readers, we must not quit the field.

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  36. Gregory Avatar

    You can’t debate a scientific illiterate on a matter of science any more you can debate in Mandarin if you don’t speak a Chinese language. However, you can project past them to whoever else is listening.
    An interesting paper by N.Scafetta just published. From the abstract:
    “…the solar activity increase during the 20th century contributed at least about 50% of the 0.8 °C global warming observed during the 20th century instead of only 7–10% (e.g.: IPCC, 2007; Benestad and Schmidt, 2009; Lean and Rind, 2009; Rohde et al., 2013)…. [the] result was obtained by using solar, volcano, greenhouse gases and aerosol constructors to fit modern paleoclimatic temperature reconstructions (e.g.: Moberg et al., 2005; Mann et al., 2008; Christiansen and Ljungqvist, 2012) since the Medieval Warm Period, which show a large millennial cycle that is well correlated to the millennial solar cycle (e.g.: Kirkby, 2007; Scafetta and West, 2007; Scafetta, 2012c). These findings stress the importance of natural oscillations and of the sun to properly interpret climatic changes.”
    The Bens of the world should be happy that there is good scientific evidence we’re not all about to die but I suspect they’ll remain in a panic until the evidence jumps up and takes a bite out of their ass.

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  37. Gregory Avatar

    Forgot to leave the link…
    http://www.pattern-recogn-phys.net/1/37/2013/prp-1-37-2013.html
    A translation for Bennie and Stevie…
    The sun was especially energetic in the 20th century, and at LEAST half the observed warming was due to the sun’s change. The IPCC projections are based on the sun being responsible for only from one-fifteenth to one-tenth of the temperature increase.
    In other words, the sun’s contribution was five to nearly eight times as much as the IPCC senior scientists assumed as they stretched their models to use CO2 to account for the warming that was due to the sun’s changes.

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  38. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Far from sleeping at my desk I was hosting a forum on regional economic development strategies yesterday morning, where more than 150 leaders from our region came together to identify strategies to take to the Brown administration for administrative and legislative action. What were you guys doing, sitting on your porches talking to the squirrels?
    And the critique that the ‘left’ can’t discuss science…I point you to the scientists, who thing you guys are bonkers……
    This entire….look at my graph! look at my cherry picked portion of the data! case is a diversion, intentionally delivered to try to create doubt about the findings of the REAL scientific community, who thing you are nuts.

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  39. George Rebane Avatar

    SteveF 1209pm – Sure would be interested in a list of the identified strategies, and especially the administrative and legislative actions by our state government required to enable them. Could you please list them or provide a link? Thanks for your service.

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  40. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    We have made a system of governance here in California that is so amazing. Those kids under the dome in Sacramento pass job killing laws by the bushel, then when the economy goes in the tank, they hire rent seekers like SBC to explain how to fix things. When SBC and its ilk cannot fight their way out of a business paper bag. AB32 and all the rest of the regulations and laws are simply smothering small and mid size business.
    The irony of the California strategy is they create such a cost burden on business to comply that only the big boys can survive. So the SF and BenE’s get to cry the blues on both ends. What a hoot!

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  41. Gregory Avatar

    “This entire….look at my graph! look at my cherry picked portion of the data! case is a diversion, intentionally delivered to try to create doubt about the findings of the REAL scientific community, who thing[sic] you are nuts.”
    Wow, look who woke up!
    Since Steve’s been hot on pointing out fallacies, let’s note this Argumentum ad Verecundiam, appeal to authority. Or is it an fallacious Argumentum ad Populum bandwagon appeal?
    Sorry, Steve, but it isn’t cherrypicking. The temperature record isn’t following the predictions of the scientists who you think are the only REAL ones out there. Some, like your fave Ben Santer, agree that mistakes were made but the models just need more tweaking.
    NONE of the models have remained within spittin’ distance of reality in just the six years since the last assessment report. They have all badly overestimated temperatures.
    There’s plenty of real science going on that’s giving the activist branch fits. In the end, it’s reality that is in charge. Warming since the 19th century is about 0.75C. If you look at the variations of the annual average Alaska temperature anomalies (put together by real scientists at the University of Alaska) that you dismissed as “cherrypicking”, you’ll note it has dropped nearly 5C in just the last 10 years. Natural variations dwarf the CO2 signal, and are easily miscategorized, and there are a number of “REAL” scientists who, based on their analyses, think the IPCC crowd mistook more sun reaching the earth because of fewer clouds as instead being more heat trapped because of more CO2 and additional water vapor in the atmosphere because of the evaporation caused by that CO2 increase.
    Good luck to you and your rent-seeking friends for your appeals to Sacramento. Enjoy it while it lasts. The End is Near.

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  42. Gregory Avatar

    Were any of the attendees pushing for development of shale oil and gas in the huge deposits that have been identified within the boundaries of California?
    An interesting BBC article…
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22524597
    Can the likes of Frisch stand the US being an net exporter of energy in five years and essentially energy independent in twenty?

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  43. Gregory Avatar

    George, links to Frisch’s shindig are here
    http://www.caeconomy.org/region/sierra-nevada
    http://www.caeconomy.org/page/-/regional%20forums/Sierra-Nevada-Flyer.pdf
    http://placersustain.org/community/content/gold-country-prosperity-summit
    http://placersustain.org/community/content/summit-agenda
    http://placersustain.org/community/content/prosperity-summit-breakout-topic-descriptions
    http://placersustain.org/community/sites/default/files/sierranevada_briefingbook2013.pdf
    In the whole, it appears to me that the so-called California Economic Summit’s Regional Forums operate much as did the SBC’s town meetings during the NH2020 debacle… host a bunch of meetings spread across the territory with facilitators as hosts helping everyone towards the solutions that are desired by the organizers in the first place. Then you have a manufactured consensus to use for politicians wanting to do the same things who can then tell their constituents that they’re implementing what the people have decided is best in a model democratic process.

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  44. George Rebane Avatar

    Gregory 227pm – thanks for the links Gregory. I looked over the leadership team and couldn’t find anyone who might know what they’re talking about in economic development. Did I overlook someone? Also couldn’t find the grand strategy document that was supposed to be the final work product of this pretty business-as-usual dickshake. But I guess we should withhold judgment until we see what they took up to Moonbeam, and how that drizzles down to new legislation and/or more regulations.

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  45. Gregory Avatar

    It will take time for all those “regional forums” to get their workproducts massaged into whatever Frisch & friends think they can sell to Sacramento.
    Since the NH2020 fun and games, how much of the business development in Nevada County are feathers in the Sierra Business Council’s cap?

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  46. George Rebane Avatar

    Perhaps the 14ap13 update of my post will shed some light on the strong positions taken by the true believers in this comment stream.

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  47. Gregory Avatar

    It’s worse than your update indicates, George. Before the mid 20th century uptick of CO2 emissions there were, of course, ups and downs in world temperatures that couldn’t have been CO2 driven… but it’s just assumed that those are natural, and the fast runup that started circa 1980 was CO2 and dangerous.
    Meteorologist Joe Bastardi tweeted an interesting chart recently, showing CO2, temps, and marking when the total of the great oceanic temperature oscillations total positive and negative. Temperature inflections match the oceanic phases nicely.
    https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/332136333516619776

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  48. George Rebane Avatar

    Gregory 921pm – Agreed, but I’ve discovered that such graphics must be kept as simple as possible if there is even any chance of making the point.

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  49. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Yeah George, every one who disagrees with you is just stupid. That’s the intellectual quality of your argument. And thousands of people working in 16 regions of the state, including the Sierra Nevada, who have years of experience in economic development and in private industry, many of whom have developed thier very own successful projects employing people, are idiots, worthy of nothing but scorn, because YOU, and RUSS and GREG, are smarter.
    And although I did not intend to get trapped by your bull hockey (that’s the opposite of hockey stick:) diversion to the same old hackneyed argument about the anthropogenicism of climate change, I just thought I would weigh in one more time to tell you sages of Cement Hill are full of beans.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/may/16/climate-research-nearly-unanimous-humans-causes

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  50. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    “The measure of intelligence is the ability to change.”
    ― Albert Einstein

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