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George Rebane

That is the title of a short but extremely important column by Professors Harrison Schmitt and William Happer that appeared in the 9may13 WSJ.  Readers know that I am a longtime skeptic of the ongoing climate change hysteria (especially the AGW part), and for technical reasons believe that results from data diddling and climate modeling have been at best questionable to incompetent science, or at worst blatently formulated to achieve political ends.

CO2Schmitt and Happer present a science side of the CO2 phantasmagoria that IMHO has not received anywhere near the consideration it should have in the ongoing debate on the global insanity and local trans-hysteria (witness California’s AB32) that is going on.  The piece starts –

Of all of the world’s chemical compounds, none has a worse reputation than carbon dioxide. Thanks to the single-minded demonization of this natural and essential atmospheric gas by advocates of government control of energy production, the conventional wisdom about carbon dioxide is that it is a dangerous pollutant. That’s simply not the case. Contrary to what some would have us believe, increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will benefit the increasing population on the planet by increasing agricultural productivity.

The cessation of observed global warming for the past decade or so has shown how exaggerated NASA’s and most other computer predictions of human-caused warming have been—and how little correlation warming has with concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As many scientists have pointed out, variations in global temperature correlate much better with solar activity and with complicated cycles of the oceans and atmosphere. There isn’t the slightest evidence that more carbon dioxide has caused more extreme weather.

The current levels of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere, approaching 400 parts per million, are low by the standards of geological and plant evolutionary history. Levels were 3,000 ppm, or more, until the Paleogene period (beginning about 65 million years ago). For most plants, and for the animals and humans that use them, more carbon dioxide, far from being a “pollutant” in need of reduction, would be a benefit. This is already widely recognized by operators of commercial greenhouses, who artificially increase the carbon dioxide levels to 1,000 ppm or more to improve the growth and quality of their plants.

The whole article, from which the graphic was filched, can be read here.  Such information will make little impact on the lay reader whose beliefs about AGW are already well calcified.  But they should be an eye-opener for the serious intelligent reader still seeking direction on whether or not to support the steady “carbon footprint” diet that we are fed daily.

To keep up on the overall developments in the climate change forum please visit Russ Steele’s ‘The Next Grand Minimum’ and Anthony Watts’ ‘Watts Up With That’.

[14apr13 update]  Reasonable people who made a case before t0 that Observable #1 may have been the cause of Observable #2, would reexamine their premises, let alone their conclusions, at some point after t0.  The rest will be unfazed by the observed data.

ReasonableCausality

 

Posted in , , , , ,

127 responses to “‘In Defense of Carbon Dioxide’ (updated 14apr13)”

  1. Russ Steele Avatar

    Here is a short video showing the impact of CO2 on plant growth: http://youtu.be/P2qVNK6zFgE

    Like

  2. Larry Wirth Avatar
    Larry Wirth

    If you don’t already follow WUWT daily, you should do so. This is an amazingly superb blog on all things communist, er.. progressive. Anyone here with a brain should be visiting this site every day. L

    Like

  3. Russ Steele Avatar

    Another site worth a daily review in Tom Nelson’s blog: http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/ Tom’s site is an aggregator of all things about global warming, climate change, extreme weather, etc. His blog list has the breaking news on what the environmental wackos are up to minute by minute.

    Like

  4. Gregory Avatar

    If you’d like rational climate science closer to the source, judithcurry.com is excellent.
    I’ve been saying for a few years that scientists need to find their way to the exits as the warmist meme is crumbling, and Dr. Curry (chair of her department at Georgia Tech) started a dialog with the online skeptic community some time ago. An obvious survivor, with more ‘gravitas’ than most.

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  5. Russ Steele Avatar

    Gregory@01:26
    A link to Judith Curry’s web site, research and publication, plus her e-mail address is here: http://curry.eas.gatech.edu/

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  6. earlcrabb Avatar

    We could end this threat right now if everyone would just stop breathing.

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  7. Russ Steele Avatar

    Well we have reached 400ppm of CO2 and the environmental wackos have little purple cows running down their legs. We are all going to die! Just another way for Mother Nature to kill us off.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/10/mauna-loa-hits-400-ppm-of-co2-alarmists-wail-and-gnash-teeth-earth-survives/

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  8. Michael Anderson Avatar
    Michael Anderson

    “This is already widely recognized by operators of commercial greenhouses, who artificially increase the carbon dioxide levels to 1,000 ppm or more to improve the growth and quality of their plants.”
    A commercial greenhouse is one thing, the only atmosphere we’ve got is something else entirely. Human industry is changing the atmosphere and who really knows what will be the result?
    Beware hubris…

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  9. Gregory Avatar

    MA, our mammalian ancestors emerged from their Triassic Park breathing 2000ppm CO2 air. Yes, we are slowly reintroducing CO2 into the atmosphere and should be aware of the consequences, but there is no good evidence one of those consequences is a catastrophic warming. A mixed bag, a shame really, since we will assuredly be faced with a new ice age eventually, and the CO2 warming was first theorized as a geoengineering remedy from that next ice age scare in the ’70’s.

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  10. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    It seems vain to try to counter the Case for CO2 being made here, other than pointing out the pure fantasy that is being harbored by conservatarian minds that adopt ideas like the ones being advanced by the WSJ.
    But for readers here who have not already staked their claims as ‘scientists’ based on a career in the military industrial complex from armchairs on Cement Hill, You Bet, and Rough and Ready, or who have not already adopted denialism as an ideological wedge issue perhaps the ramifications of denialism will move you. Consider this article from the National Journal, and ask yourselves, where will this folly take the party that you believe represents your preferred vision of the future of America:
    http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/the-coming-gop-civil-war-over-climate-change-20130509?page=1

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  11. Gregory Avatar

    “I think it’s true that some rather sloppy discussion of the rapid warming from the 20th century has given people unrealistic expectations about the future course of warming.”
    -RealClimate’s Raymond Pierrehumbert
    Lead Author IPCC Assessment Report 3
    Frisch, whether it’s politics or a religion of some sort that is driving you, it isn’t science, which for alarmists really is in a slo-mo trainwreck. Keep digging, please. The deeper your hole, the harder it will be for you to crawl out.

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  12. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    So Greg, you agree that rising CO2 is not a problem? It is just an opportunity to grow more plants? I am sure you understand just how silly that is. You really think that “In Defense of CO2” is science?
    No one has ever said there is no uncertainty in this issue….you talk to any real climatologist, and I have talked to a lot of them, and they are the first to point out the uncertainties. Perhaps you should have attended the talk by Lawrence Livermore Labs climatologist Dr. Benjamin Santer that I hosted at the Tahoe Environmental Research Center. You can see a webcast here: http://new.livestream.com/snc/sbcsanter
    It’s not politics or religion buddy, its science.
    Or one of the events we helped produce and promote at the Governors Conference on Extreme Climate Risk and California’s Future, which can be found here:
    http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/ecrcf/co_events.html
    Scientists all. 🙂
    I would put our record for bringing real science to the discussion instead of reposting of editorial opinion from WattsUpWithThat and the WSJ any day.
    But funny, I have never seen you at one of those events, nor George, Russ, or anyone else who posts here and says they know science.
    Serious people who study climate change do not deny uncertainty; you guys project the label of absolutely certainty to their comments, and then assume and argue against the straw man that you have thrown up. With all due respect, which is almost none, that is am amateur high school debating tactic, not a serious discussion.

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  13. Larr Avatar
    Larr

    Nice try at an argument from authority, Frisch. Too bad the plain evidence of our eyes doesn’t support it. L

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  14. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    But perhaps I should spend a little time this afternoon debunking “In Defense of Carbon Dioxide”?
    Lets start with the basic premise of the piece: that rising CO2 levels are not a threat to plant life. I wonder just who Professors Schmitt and Happer think they are arguing against? No botanist would say that rising CO2 levels in and themselves are a threat to all plant life, they would say it is a risk to SOME plant life, and in all my listening to climatologists and botanists talk about the issue, I have never heard one contend that, without the caveat that some plant life would thrive and some would be at risk. So Schmitt and Happer are actually making the case against a point that no one is making. What they do contend is that rising CO2 levels is a risk to how humans have adapted to use plant life, and not necessarily from the CO2 level itself, but from the effect of the CO2 in the atmosphere and the risk that the greenhouse effect will change and has been changing weather patterns.
    Do you deny the greenhouse effect and the role that CO2 in the atmosphere plays on it? If so, you (and they) are in a distinct minority, not just amongst scientists, but amongst 8th graders.
    The risk is not from the CO2, it is from drought, flood, fire, insect infestation, pathogens and changing vegetation patterns. Ask anyone growing corn in Iowa or India if the, “increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will benefit the increasing population on the planet”, as Schmitt and Happer contend. Humans have adapted to growing certain crops in certain places based on the prevailing climate patterns. That adaptation has led to a specific land ownership and use pattern. Change the climate patterns and WHAT we grow WHERE changes. In a world where more than 1/3 of the population lives at subsistence levels changing crop patterns is a huge risk, and not just for starvation or reversing the gains of Norman Borlaug’s green revolution, but for the creation of millions of climate refugees, and the displacement and war that comes from that.
    In short, this argument is what is known as a “fallacy of exclusion” (a term also taught in high school debate).
    A look at the science behind this argument demonstrates its inherent weaknesses. In a greenhouse, or a closed environment, an increase in CO2 spurs plant growth. However, the globe is not a controlled environment, and its incredible sensitivity to a variety of factors is something that is often taken for granted when an argument based on a false premise like this is made. A rise in CO2 levels is not the ONLY consequence of climate change, it is one of MANY effects of climate change, and it is these other effects that have had and will have more abiding adverse effects on plant growth around the world.
    While CO2 stimulates plant growth, the planet’s flora requires a number of other elements, like water and nutrients, to maintain its health. The most important of these elements is water. Change the availability of water, as farmers in the Central Valley know this year when they are going to get about 30% of their normal allotment, and you change our ability to grow plants (I would contend a 2nd grader knows this). With changes to our climates balance, an increase in the greenhouse effect, and increased evaporation means decreased soil moisture. Another effect of global climate change is erratic precipitation patterns. This causes extreme weather in certain geographic locations only sporadically, with overall, balanced rainfall drastically reduced. We don’t need to model this (although we do) we can see it.
    The “CO2 helps plants” argument is a simple logical fallacy, because it assumes that the ONLY thing that helps plants grow is CO2, that is proven false, not by climate science but by botany. They may grow more while they have water because they have more CO2, then die because they have no water (or nutrients, or flood, or burn, or are infested). The argument only focuses on ONE cause and effect while ignoring all of the others, and this it is just purely ignorant on its face.

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  15. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    One thing I do know is that if I ever do have to crawl out of a hole, I will do it because the data drives me there, and I am not going to care if Gregory is at the top of it.

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  16. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Perhaps you should be a little more specific Lar, right now it just sounds like some guy saying, “neener-neener.” 🙂

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  17. Gregory Avatar

    Frisch, you need to listen to more real physicists than “real climatologists”. In fact, real physicists are to real climatologists much as, in the past, medical doctors were to chiropractors, to the extent that chiropractors had ventured past manipulations that solved real physical problems and went headlong into the metaphysical. Think “warming in the pipeline” that no one can find.
    Regarding the WSJ article, Schmitt is a PhD geologist, Happer a PhD physicist on the faculty at Princeton. Neither are slouches.
    What I was certain of six years ago was that the “real climatologists” were improperly ignoring real evidence that they’d mistaken warming from fewer clouds than they were counting on, for warming by a theorized positive feedback from CO2. The evidence for “clouds and aerosols running the show”, as James Lovelock has put it, has only gotten stronger since then.
    By the IPCC AR4 projections and the current surface records, it’s already ~90% certain that the models are wrong, and IPCC partisans are wringing their hands over how to deal with temps breaking out of the 95% band, which looks to be within the year if current trends continue.
    Frisch, the science you were counting on is coming up short; all you have to rely on is the authority of the guys whose scary stories have your undies in a knot, because you don’t have a bloody clue how to weigh the arguments yourself.

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  18. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    So, your defense is “my scientists are better than your scientists”? Climate scientists are ‘chiropractors’? What about all the physicists who agree that climate change is occurring? What about the fact that the American Physical Society has published a statement saying:
    “Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth’s climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes.
    The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring.
    If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now.
    Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to understand the effects of human activity on the Earth’s climate, and to provide the technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer terms. The APS also urges governments, universities, national laboratories and its membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.”
    Whole lot of god like Physicists there!
    By the way Lovelock is neither a climate scientist nor a physicist, he is a chemist. Can I assume that from your constant citing of James Lovelock’s newfound skepticism about SOME elements of climate change theory [but I must note he has not recanted on climate change occurring, he has recanted on the speed at which climate change will occur] that you now think he is the authority, and thus also have adopted his Gaia Theory? If so, can I also assume that you accept his hypothesis as explained in “The Revenge of Gaia” (2006), that the lack of respect humans have had for Gaia, and the damage done to rainforests and the reduction in planetary biodiversity, Gaia’s capacity to minimize the effects of the addition of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the planet’s negative feedbacks, that we have increased the likelihood of runaway global warming?
    Bottom line, Greg my boy, is that you have been serially misrepresenting what James Lovelock really thinks by pulling quotes and not representing the full body of his work.
    I notice you fail to quote what James Lovelock said in 2006 in The Independent that by the end of the 21st Century, “billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable”.
    Oh, and have you also adopted his ‘sustainable retreat’ concept, that we must move human populations away from low lying areas due to climate change?

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  19. Russ Steele Avatar

    Steven@12:42 Very interesting article, it comes across as attempt to start a fight in the school yard between two guys who are friends, by a spiteful girl. As for Prof Emanuel being a conservative, that is debatable, anyone can say they are a conservative, but the real test is do they act like a conservative.
    Prof. EMANUEL[LA Times]: My feeling is that at this point in history, if a politician simply denies that there’s any human influence in the climate, in face of all the evidence, it so much casts doubt on that person’s ability to weigh evidence and come to a rational conclusion that I can’t see myself voting for such a person, no matter what they say about other issues.
    My thinking is similar to Emanuel, examine the evidence, weigh it and then come to a rational conclusion. After examining the historical evidence, my conclusion is that the planet warms and cools on a natural cycle drive by the Sun and planetary motion. Details here: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/BAST1.png
    I also conclude that humans have influenced the climate, mainly through agriculture and the distribution of water, but I do not see any significant human impact through the generation of CO2, our contribution is very small when compared to forest fires, volcanos (surface and subsurface) and a warming ocean. The primary greenhouse gas is water vapor and it is declining in the upper atmosphere according to satellite and radiosonde measurements. More details here: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/FIG4_DE.png
    The computer models were invalidated when the global temperatures failed to follow the projected trajectory on the graphic. CO2 keeps increasing and the temperatures have remained relatively static. If there was a strong connection, as claimed by the computer modelers then the temperatures should be increasing, and they are not. Earth experienced an ice age 450 million years ago, with CO2 somewhere between 2000 and 8000 ppm. If CO2 as a warming factor, how did the earth experience an ice age? More details here: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Screen_shot_2013-05-10_at_6.20.44_PM.png
    On the other hand the sun is experience a low sun spot period and through out history when the sunspots decline the earth and all the other planets cool. When the sunspots vanish on the sun the earth catches a very bad cold.
    There is no evidence to support the claim that droughts, tornados and hurricanes are increasing, when the data for the last several years indicate they are not. If you examine the data you will also see that this is true. Details here: http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/05/11/the-anti-science-whitehouse/
    Now you have an opportunity to submit your facts, show us how AGW warms the planet!

    Like

  20. Russ Steele Avatar

    Steven@04:49PM
    Ben Santer is a climate modeler who has long been declaring that global warming was accelerating from human CO2 – instead, the real facts reveals his incompetence. He has been spectacularly wrong for so long that it’s even painful for skeptics to witness. He has been cluck-clucking forever about how CO2 levels were causing accelerating and irreversible global warming, with some climate “disruption” thrown in to scare the politicians and policymakers.
    See the modeling results HERE and HERE.

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  21. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Russ Steele | 11 May 2013 at 06:26 PM
    I think you misunderstood the point I was making in my 12:42 post. My point was NOT to debate whether climate is changing or not, or whether humans are causing it or not. My point was that the Republican Party denying that climate is changing and humans are causing it is going to lead to the same disconnect with voters that calling Sandra Fluke a whore, saying Hispanics have lower IQ’s than non-hispanics, and serially trying to deny African-Americans voting rights is going to have. You are going to widen the gap between the Republican Party and the rising demographic of voters, motivate them to come to the polls in opposition to your policies, and engender opposition that will make the Republican Party the Whigs. By failing to rise to the challenge of the greatest threat that mankind faces, just like the Whigs failed to rise to the moral dilemma of slavery, you will split your party, strengthen your opposition, and eventually weaken your position on all the other issues that are important to you.
    This is admittedly a fundamentally “Realpolitik” point I am making. I just think your readers should be aware of it.

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  22. Larry Wirth Avatar
    Larry Wirth

    Nicely put, Russ. More puzzling is why the Frische’s of the world aren’t rejoicing that their vision of Thermageddon isn’t happening. You’d logically expect they’d be happy to be proven wrong, but no. In truth, these folks have a deep antipathy to humankind and frankly don’t care that a substantial slice of humankind is still tyranized by a lack of accessible enegy. Their deaths are just collateral damage from the crusade to save mankind from its own progress. L

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  23. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    By the way Greg, I would appreciate it if you would address the logical fallacy point of my post rather than attempting to divert attention to irrelevant issues. The Fallacy of Exclusion is the issue.

    Like

  24. Larry Wirth Avatar
    Larry Wirth

    And I, Mr. Frisch would very much appreciate you responding to the total lack of empirical evidence for your “end of the world” scenario that continues to be the baseline meme of truly stupid people. Read it again, doofus. There is NO evidence that the world is warming in consequence of increasing CO2. Got it? Ok, let’s say it again, no evidence. L

    Like

  25. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Russ Steele | 11 May 2013 at 06:54 PM
    Sorry Russ, I suggest you watch the Santer presentation I linked to. He uses a lot more than the UAH (University of Alabama at Huntsville) and RSS (Remote Sensing Systems-contracted to NASA) data sets (both of which are BTW atmospheric and surface temperature measurements not necessarily ocean temperature readings, which is the bulk of the area of the surface of the planet). I fail to see how these two specific data sets invalidate the work of Dr. Santer that is based on more than 30 other data sets as well. If you would like to cite a specific SANTER product that is proven deficient AND is significantly outside of the uncertainty he defines as inherent in the model, instead of citing other work and claiming it is his, I would be happy to attempt to defend that, even though that too, is a diversion.

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  26. Joe Koyote Avatar
    Joe Koyote

    If climate change is a hoax, why is it being foisted upon us and who are the culprits?

    Like

  27. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Larry Wirth | 11 May 2013 at 07:16 PM
    Quite the contrary to how you portray my position on energy Larry, I believe that the best way to raise people out of poverty and provide a high quality of life is to find a way to provide an abundant and cheap form of energy. I believe in abundance. According to the dreaded UN, one and one half billion people live with electricity and three and a half billion rely on primitive fuels like wood, charcoal and dung. To solve world water and health problems we have to solve the energy problem. The question is while we are solving the energy poverty issue do we create a new climate poverty issue. It would be folly to trade one form of poverty for another.
    Fortunately there are solutions that solve the energy poverty and climate poverty issue at the same time.
    According to Swanson’s Law, every time we double the production of photovoltaic cells we reduce the price by 20%. As new technology is being developed the things that made PV expensive, like the need for rare earth and the high cost of silicon wafers, has been going down. Since such a small portion of the worlds energy is produced by PV this is a huge opportunity. In addition, wind power is now at grid parity with coal.
    According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance the cost of construction and management of wind generation in most places is now down to $68 MW, the cost of coal is $67 per MW. According Emil Jacobs at ExxonMobile bio-fuels are within a few short years of being both cheaper and quicker to produce than oil is. We are making huge advances in energy storage, both through batteries and liquid storage, making solar and wind more stable.
    Clearly we are going to need decades to replace the more than 16 terrawatts per year of energy and grow the amount of energy available to make it truly abundant. In the interim we should be looking at technologies like natural gas, perhaps some forms of nuclear and improving how we use coal. We should be working to make fossil fuels more abundant by taxing carbon and using the tax on carbon to invest in technologies that reduce costs. The biggest problem we face is an R & D deficit.
    Oh, and who are you calling doofus, shitheel? I mean really, are we not adults?

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  28. Gregory Avatar

    My dear Frischie, back in 2006 when Lovelock was quite the alarmist, I was also on the warmist side of the isle. The difference is that science has progressed beyond where it was when the IPCC was chartered to see how bad CO2 was and to shake carbon reparations from the first world paid to the 3rd world.
    Bottom line, the politician Frisch doesn’t quite grok the fact that while James Lovelock was quite the alarmist in the early ‘oughts, in 2010 he flat out stated,

    “The great climate science centres around the world are more than well aware how weak their science is. If you talk to them privately they’re scared stiff of the fact that they don’t really know what the clouds and the aerosols are doing. They could be absolutely running the show. We haven’t got the physics worked out yet. One of the chiefs once said to me that he agreed that they should include the biology in their models, but he said they hadn’t got the physics right yet and it would be five years before they do. So why on earth are the politicians spending a fortune of our money when we can least afford it on doing things to prevent events 50 years from now? They’ve employed scientists to tell them what they want to hear.”

    In the same interview he also stated,
    “they’re not complete models. They’re based more or less entirely on geophysics. They don’t take into account the climate of the oceans to any great extent, or the responses of the living stuff on the planet. So I don’t see how they can accurately predict the climate. It’s not the computational power that we lack today, but the ability to take what we know and convert it into a form the computers will understand. I think we’ve got too high an opinion of ourselves. We’re not that bright an animal. We stumble along very nicely and it’s amazing what we do do sometimes, but we tend to be too hubristic to notice the limitations. If you make a model, after a while you get suckered into it. You begin to forget that it’s a model and think of it as the real world. You really start to believe it.”

    In short, Lovelock gets it. Frisch doesn’t.

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  29. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Larry Wirth | 11 May 2013 at 07:42 PM
    I did not come here to answer the “Is Climate Change Happening” question, I came here to point out that the article “In Defense of Carbon Dioxide” is a cartoon version of science, rebutting a false premise, utilizing a logical fallacy to make its case. Answer that, and I may get to Greg’s diversionary argument.

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  30. 0u0ul Avatar
    0u0ul

    You are the “culprit”

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  31. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Gregory | 11 May 2013 at 08:22 PM
    First, once again a false premise Greg, I did not quote Lovelock as an authority on climate, you did. I don’t think Lovelock is an authority on climate, so his position really means less to me than many others does. I merely pointed out that your citing of Lovelock was in contravention to your advice that we must trust the physicists.
    You did not answer my questions about how much of what Lovelock says you support or believe Greg. Is Gaia theory accurate? His “sustainable retreat” case is being made today, in response to climate change; how does his statements you quoted above jibe with his believe that we must abandon low lying areas? Why did you not respond to the point that you say we must listen to physicists then quote a chemist and earth scientist? If James Lovelock changes his position tomorrow, as he seems prone to do, will you change yours?
    I think not.
    So, answer the logical fallacy question, please.

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  32. Gregory Avatar

    “So, your defense is “my scientists are better than your scientists”? Climate scientists are ‘chiropractors’?”
    The parallels are uncanny. The common expectation among “climatologists” over the last 20 years is that there’s a greenhouse gas signal in the temperature record, and Santer et al have made a career out of looking for it. But, as a fellow climategater wrote recently,

    “These increases are certainly less than the warming rates of the 1980s and first half of the 1990s of about 0.15 to 0.20 C (.27 and .36 F respectively) and per decade. The earlier period may have provided an unrealistic view of the global warming signal, says Kevin Trenberth, climate scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Co.
    “One of the things emerging from several lines is that the IPCC has not paid enough attention to natural variability, on several time scales,” he says, especially El Niños and La Niñas, the Pacific Ocean phenomena that are not yet captured by climate models, and the longer term Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which have cycle lengths of about 60 years.
    From about 1975, when global warming resumed sharply, until the 1997-98 El Niño, the PDO was in its positive, warm phase, and heat did not penetrate as deeply into the ocean. The PDO has since changed to its negative, cooler phase.
    “It was a time when natural variability and global warming were going in the same direction, so it was much easier to find global warming,” Trenberth says. “Now the PDO has gone in the other direction, so some counter-effects are masking some of the global warming manifestations right at the surface.”

    “What about all the physicists who agree that climate change is occurring? What about the fact that the American Physical Society has published a statement” – Frisch
    The APS leadership who have not done relevant research themselves wrote that in a closed process, and it is controversial within the APS. The place you find serious physics is in the journals, not from guys whose business is working with the politicians who are funding the likes of Santer.
    Have you read any of the recent papers showing a MUCH lower CO2 sensitivity than the IPCC AR4 found? Below 2 deg C for a doubling. The IPCC was claiming 3C, with 4.5C being possible. That’s the scary bedtime story that drives the carbon rent-seekers feeding on the giant teat in Sacramento, and it IS falling apart.

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  33. Gregory Avatar

    “First, once again a false premise Greg, I did not quote Lovelock as an authority on climate, you did.” – Frisch
    No, Frisch, I quoted Lovelock as honest actor who is reporting what climatologists say in private… “The great climate science centres around the world are more than well aware how weak their science is.”

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  34. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Gregory | 11 May 2013 at 08:44 PM
    The American Physical Society is the largest professional organization of physicists in the country. Thousands of physicists who are journal published and peer reviewed have agreed with their statement. Thousands of physicists who are journal published and peer reviewed have published works contending that climate change is happening and is anthropogenic. Your contention “that we should trust the physicists” and their position somehow backs up your claim is completely undermined by this fact. And yes, I have been following the scientific journals on CO2 sensitivity; according to almost every source they are within the margin of the uncertainty factor originally projected, and do not prove anything because they are measuring too short a time period to be credible yet.
    But I must note that YOU ARE STILL NOT ANSWERING THE QUESTION. The issue I posted on was NOT the question of whether or not the climate is changing due to human causes, the issue I posted on was the premise of the article, and George’s post, that CO2 is somehow a ‘good”. You have not responded to my critique of the inherent logically fallacy in the article. I can only surmise that you cannot…you are incapable of rebutting my point.

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  35. Gregory Avatar

    ” I came here to point out that the article “In Defense of Carbon Dioxide” is a cartoon version of science” – Frisch
    Frisch, I think we’ve established you have ZERO credibility as a judge of physical science, especially when the supposed cartoonists you’re laughing at are a Princeton professor of physics and a PhD geologist/former astronaut.

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  36. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Gregory | 11 May 2013 at 08:44 PM
    “That’s the scary bedtime story that drives the carbon rent-seekers feeding on the giant teat in Sacramento, and it IS falling apart.”
    I was not going to do this, but since you have implied ulterior motives, I am compelled to respond.
    Let’s take a look for a second at just who Harrison Schmitt and William Happer are, and how they make their money.
    First, neither of them have ever written any peer reviewed climate science. Schmitt has a Ph.D in Geology (not a God-like physicist) and was an astronaut from 1965 to 1975. After resigning from NASA, Schmitt was a one-term Republican Senator from New Mexico.
    William Happer is a physics professor (point in your favor if you believe physicists are superior to all other scientists) at Princeton University, but to the best of my ability to using Lexus-Nexus, never published any peer reviewed climate paper. Happer did write a paper titled “Climate Science and Policy: Making the Connection” that was a policy document. However, it was published by the oil industry-funded George C. Marshall Institute, not any peer-reviewed journal. What Gregory did not disclose (as he was impuning motives of others based on sucking on a Sacramento teat) is that the Marshall Institute is an oil industry funded think tank, that according to their IRS 990 forms has received substantial funding from the policy wing of Exxon, and as recently as 2011, the Koch Foundation.
    What Gregory also did not disclose is that Harrison Schmitt was on the board of directors of The Heartland Institute. He continues to be listed as a fellow and expert on the organizations web site (which is I am sure good for a few gigs a year). The policy wing of ExxonMobile contributed more than $600,000 to Heartland between 1998 and 2006, while Schmitt was on the board, but has since changed its policy. The Heartland Institute is also heavily funded by the Charles Koch Foundation.
    I did find this interesting statement from Mr. Happer from an article titled “Obvious Path Of The United States” Under “Current Congress And President” Is “National Socialism.” at AmericansUncommonSense.com:
    “The previously faint but obvious path of the United States toward national socialism has suddenly become a super-highway. Reversing direction requires concerted, immediate action in the courts, push-back by the States, and passive resistance by the people. Using the term “national socialism” for where we are headed may make some uncomfortable, but it has historical precedent in referring to the logical end-point of current governing trends. A possible alternative term for where we are being taken would be “authoritarian capitalism,” as now practiced in China, but that term does not yet have as good historical examples of the potential consequences of these trends as do analogies with the “national socialism” that swept Europe in the last Century.
    Although national socialism clearly has atrocious legacies of genocide, aggression, and terrorism under the despotism of Hitler and the Third Reich, the term actually refers to a philosophy of authoritarian government that took hold in Germany early in the 20th Century. Once national socialists took control, the German government dominated individual liberties and the decision-making of private business and industry. Soon, that business and industry became an implementing arm of the domestic repression and the international ambitions of the Third Reich. Our concern today should be that “regulation” of individual liberties and “control” of the private sector now has become the often publicly stated goals of the current Congress and President in the United States.”
    So these are the rational authors of “In Defense of Carbon Dioxide”, an astronaut and a Koch Brothers funded physicist who has never published a peer reviewed paper who spend his time calling the President a Nazi.
    Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

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  37. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Gregory | 11 May 2013 at 09:11 PM
    And I see Gregory has resorted to his usual childish response of thinking he is the smartest person in the room rather than answering the goddamn question.

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  38. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Here, lets make it easy for the faint of heart, “The “CO2 helps plants” argument is a simple logical fallacy, because it assumes that the ONLY thing that helps plants grow is CO2, that is proven false, not by climate science but by botany. They may grow more while they have water because they have more CO2, then die because they have no water (or nutrients, or flood, or burn, or are infested). The argument only focuses on ONE cause and effect while ignoring all of the others, and this it is just purely ignorant on its face.”

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  39. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Also still waiting for Gregory to tell us if he believes the Gaia Principle:
    “The Gaia hypothesis, also known as Gaia theory or Gaia principle, proposes that organisms interact with their inorganic surroundings on Earth to form a self-regulating, complex system that contributes to maintaining the conditions for life on the planet. Topics of interest include how the biosphere and the evolution of life forms affect the stability of global temperature, ocean salinity, oxygen in the atmosphere and other environmental variables that affect the habitability of Earth.”
    If he trusts Lovelock on climate does he trust Lovelock on Gaia? And if he does, then how can he claim that dumping 16 billion metric tons per year of CO2 into the atmosphere has no effect?

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  40. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Think I might have to go back to watching “Mars Attacks”.

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  41. Gregory Avatar

    You mean “Frisch Attacks!”
    When it comes to physical science, yes, Physics is superior to all others. It’s the umbrella for the study of the physical world. Physics. Physical. Get it?
    Climatology, studying past weather trends, used to be the boring side of meteorology, what the least skilled budding young wannabee weathermen would become if looking into the future wasn’t their strong point. Sort of like civil engineering for BS Engineering students. But in the last couple decades climatology practitioners have been cranking out folks like Michael Mann (and lesser practitioners like Santer) who use questionable statistics and flawed science to produce scary graphs that motivate the gullible, like Stephen Frisch.
    Stevie, CO2 is not a negative. We, and all the plants on the earth, evolved in atmospheres with an order of magnitude more CO2. We have so little because plants in essence terraformed the world, taking it down from as much as ~8000ppm to the current 400. What it can be expected to do to temperatures is small compared to natural variations.
    It isn’t a crisis.

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  42. Gregory Avatar

    “And I see Gregory has resorted to his usual childish response of thinking he is the smartest person in the room rather than answering the goddamn question.”
    -Frisch
    I see Frisch has resorted to his usual abusive and childish responses that emerge when it becomes clear that he isn’t the smartest person in the room.

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  43. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Actually plants took us down to 225 ppm. How nice to see that we are now going backward, in soooo many ways. But it was fun to kick your superior ass though.

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  44. Gregory Avatar

    To get to 225 the plants also had to blow through 300. My statement stands.
    Try to keep up, Stevie.
    There is little doubt in my mind that the Frischs of the world will be owing huge apologies to a large number of people as the modern missteps of climate science continue to unravel past the breaking point, but will rationalize not making them with some variation of “It wasn’t what you said, it was how you said it.”

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  45. Gregory Avatar

    Re Frisch’s 09:34 PM
    A purely political screed that, by invoking Nazi’s, triggers Godwin’s Law of Nazi Analogies, an automatic forfeit.
    Thanks for playing today, Steve.

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  46. Gregory Avatar

    “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in
    herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
    It’s in Frisch’s best interest to stay mad as long as possible. I recovered in 2007, some started back in the early ’90’s, but the science has been marching towards sanity slowly but surely.
    Frisch, as long as you seem to be capable of hosting shindigs that Santer would attend, why not restage the IntelligenceSquared debate over the question, “Global warming is not a crisis”. The original had Gavin Schmidt and a couple of unremarkable companions arguing against, and Lindzen, Phillip Stott and the late Michael Crichton mopping the floor with them.
    Why not get the likes of Schmidt, Santer and Mann or McKibben arguing for, and Lindzen, maybe Stott or a Shaviv or Svensmark. There’s quite a number of published skeptics that could hold their own.
    There’s not been a debate of that sort since that 2007 rout, and it’s probably because they’ve seen they have everything to lose by actually having to make their case in a debate format.
    http://www.crichton-official.com/video-iq2debate-part1.html
    http://www.crichton-official.com/pdfs/GlobalWarmingDebate.pdf

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  47. Gregory Avatar

    “”The “CO2 helps plants” argument is a simple logical fallacy, because it assumes that the ONLY thing that helps plants grow is CO2, that is proven false, not by climate science but by botany. They may grow more while they have water because they have more CO2, then die because they have no water (or nutrients, or flood, or burn, or are infested). The argument only focuses on ONE cause and effect while ignoring all of the others, and this it is just purely ignorant on its face.”
    A classic petitio principii, another classic fallacy, assuming what he’s trying to prove. That drought, flood, fire and pestilence would be results of the CO2… and he forgot the other supposed effects of CO2… wind, calm, freezing cold, heat waves.
    No, 350ppm, a number pulled out of Bill McKibben’s hat (the polite version), has no basis in science. There was even one snowball Earth episode with CO2 up around ~8000ppm in the early years of the Phanerozoic. The point to the large boost of plant growth with additional CO2 is partially to show that the more CO2 that is in the atmosphere, the faster the biosphere will consume it. Yet another negative feedback that the general circulation models lack that Lovelock intimated when decrying the lack of biological components of the simulations.

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  48. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Gregory | 11 May 2013 at 10:53 PM
    Thanks Greg….re: the Goodwin’s Law point: you must have missed the fact that IT WAS MR> HAPPER who as making the Nazi analogy, all I did was quote his OWN WRITTEN WORDS from 2010.

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  49. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Gregory | 11 May 2013 at 11:35 PM
    Sorry Greg, derivative argument……you want to have that debate …how about you get in the game and go to the climate change shindigs and make your point….or perhaps learn something. I seem to be able to make it to a few of them…as I said, never seen you or a few other wise men of Nevada County with big opinions about how much smarter than everyone else they are about climate change at any of them.
    But while we are talking shindigs, now it seems that scientific method comes down to who you think “wins a debate” ? Yet up above you are saying its about the data, not who can argue best. Which is it man, are you a scientist or a rhetorical critic? I thought you hated rhetoric, and now here you are embracing it.

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  50. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Gregory | 11 May 2013 at 11:58 PM
    And there it is, the “we once had CO2 levels much higher and our planet adapted” argument. I love that one because it just makes so much sense. Yes, we did once have CO2 levels just as high. The last time we did it was OK…because CO2 is good for plants. Just look at the Piacenzian age, the last time we were over 400 ppm. Most of the planet was covered by marshlands and swamps; precipitation was about 40% higher than it is today; humans had not yet emerged as the dominant species, we were the Australopithecus then; global average temperatures were only about 3 degrees C higher; much of the United States, including Florida, central California, the entire Tidewater region of the east coast, and the Mississippi River basin were under water; and large mammals proliferated. It was a great time for the pre-human species to learn to become hunters and for growing huge ferns. It was kind of like a 1970’s fern bar version of Survivor!
    Or we could go back to the beginning of the Phanerozoic, we had roughly 1/8th the biodiversity.
    It makes almost as much sense as the “higher the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere the faster the biosphere will absorb it” argument….well yeah, if we lived in geological time. Unfortunately we don’t. The human species will be destroyed while the CO2 is being gradually absorbed on geological time. It will takes at least 10,000 years (or roughly the time since man discovered agriculture) just to absorb the increased CO2 we have put in the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution.
    WE DO NOT LIVE IN ANY OTHER TIME….we live and die in our time.

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