Rebane's Ruminations
May 2013
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George Rebane

That is the title of a short but extremely important column by Professors Harrison Schmitt and William Happer that appeared in the 9may13 WSJ.  Readers know that I am a longtime skeptic of the ongoing climate change hysteria (especially the AGW part), and for technical reasons believe that results from data diddling and climate modeling have been at best questionable to incompetent science, or at worst blatently formulated to achieve political ends.

CO2Schmitt and Happer present a science side of the CO2 phantasmagoria that IMHO has not received anywhere near the consideration it should have in the ongoing debate on the global insanity and local trans-hysteria (witness California’s AB32) that is going on.  The piece starts –

Of all of the world’s chemical compounds, none has a worse reputation than carbon dioxide. Thanks to the single-minded demonization of this natural and essential atmospheric gas by advocates of government control of energy production, the conventional wisdom about carbon dioxide is that it is a dangerous pollutant. That’s simply not the case. Contrary to what some would have us believe, increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will benefit the increasing population on the planet by increasing agricultural productivity.

The cessation of observed global warming for the past decade or so has shown how exaggerated NASA’s and most other computer predictions of human-caused warming have been—and how little correlation warming has with concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As many scientists have pointed out, variations in global temperature correlate much better with solar activity and with complicated cycles of the oceans and atmosphere. There isn’t the slightest evidence that more carbon dioxide has caused more extreme weather.

The current levels of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere, approaching 400 parts per million, are low by the standards of geological and plant evolutionary history. Levels were 3,000 ppm, or more, until the Paleogene period (beginning about 65 million years ago). For most plants, and for the animals and humans that use them, more carbon dioxide, far from being a “pollutant” in need of reduction, would be a benefit. This is already widely recognized by operators of commercial greenhouses, who artificially increase the carbon dioxide levels to 1,000 ppm or more to improve the growth and quality of their plants.

The whole article, from which the graphic was filched, can be read here.  Such information will make little impact on the lay reader whose beliefs about AGW are already well calcified.  But they should be an eye-opener for the serious intelligent reader still seeking direction on whether or not to support the steady “carbon footprint” diet that we are fed daily.

To keep up on the overall developments in the climate change forum please visit Russ Steele’s ‘The Next Grand Minimum’ and Anthony Watts’ ‘Watts Up With That’.

[14apr13 update]  Reasonable people who made a case before t0 that Observable #1 may have been the cause of Observable #2, would reexamine their premises, let alone their conclusions, at some point after t0.  The rest will be unfazed by the observed data.

ReasonableCausality

 

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127 responses to “‘In Defense of Carbon Dioxide’ (updated 14apr13)”

  1. George Rebane Avatar

    SteveF 732am – I think you and BenE are just underlining my point about the asymmetric climate change argument by continuing to attack me personally. My arguments represent a widely held view among many reputable scientists and engineers whose work is denigrated not on its merits, but by citing the so-called consensus of the opposition.
    In the same measure, I take it that you are not going send/cite any of the economic development recommendations you generated in your last gathering.

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  2. Russ Steele Avatar

    Steven@07:32AM links to some more junk science this morning. Here are some details on how this “independent” assessment was developed HERE.
    John Cook, with the help of volunteers from Skeptical Science, recently published a paper seeking to quantify the consensus on global warming. There is much to be said about it, but the most interesting part may be the fact the authors use what is, to put it charitably, novel definitions for words:
    Each abstract was categorized by two independent, anonymized raters.
    What would you consider “independent”? Would you consider raters independent if they participate in the same, small forum? How about if they are moderators for the same site? How about if they’ve published papers together in the last six months? Those are all true of “independent” raters in this project.
    But how about this? What if the raters talked to each other about their ratings? Surely we can’t say people who work together to produce results are independent of each other. Nobody would call that independent. Just look at what Glenn Tamblyn said in the leaked SKS forums:
    So I think now the Cone of Silence should descend while the ratings are done. Cheer each other on as far as the count is concerned, but don’t discuss ratings at all. If a reviewer finds an abstract to hard to classify, skip it and those ones can be dealt with at a later stage.
    That makes sense. What doesn’t make sense is that people would make topics in the SKS forum like:
    Does this mean what it seems to mean? second opinion?? how to rate: Cool Dudes: The Denial Of Climate Change…
    That’s right. The “independent” raters talked to each other about how to rate the papers. This must be some new form of independence I’ve never heard of. I’m not the only one thrown off by this. Sarah Green, one of the most active raters, observed the non-independence:
    But, this is clearly not an independent poll, nor really a statistical exercise. We are just assisting in the effort to apply defined criteria to the abstracts with the goal of classifying them as objectively as possible.
    Disagreements arise because neither the criteria nor the abstracts can be 100% precise. We have already gone down the path of trying to reach a consensus through the discussions of particular cases. From the start we would never be able to claim that ratings were done by independent, unbiased, or random people anyhow.
    You can read more about the analysis of this junk science HERE. So, once again Steven has pointed to more unscientific crap!

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  3. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    KInd of rich George, you felling ‘personally attacked’, since you host a blog that has made an art of personally attacking people with virtually no rules of polite engagement. And for you to snidely imply that you have to keep things simple for the small brains around you (small being defined solely as those who disagree with you) and then think that’s not a personal attack on others is ludicrous. Truly your excrement must be roses.

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  4. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    George,
    When I look at my daughter, son, and nephew I think how we absolutely screwed them with this insane unsustainable lifestyle made possible by our current economic model of perpetual growth. It wasn’t your generation or mine alone it has been the model we inherited from when land and resources were plentiful and the population was manageable. So my attack isn’t aimed at you specifically but those who continue to defend a failed system/ model. There has been some pluses but the minuses are starting to dwarf them in comparison. Our failure has been not acting on and adapting to the changing variables. Most Americans and I believe most people around the world want to change the system/ model but people like yourself and Russ are giving into your fears and are holding it up. You guys are defenders of the status quo. I don’t care what your ruminations are about governments at the moment because most governments are controlled by private special interests not interests of the people they claim to govern. It is fascism or corporatism.

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  5. George Rebane Avatar

    SteveF 844am – Sadly Steve, it’s worse than that. I simply experience and accept the oft cited results of the National Center for Educational Statistics of Dept of Education on America’s adult literacy, and lamentations of liberal academics on the intellectual basis of progressivism. See http://nces.ed.gov/naal/ or simply google ‘US adult literacy’ for a snootful.
    The fact of the matter is that we are an almost wholly innumerate nation, and pointing that out is a liberal no-no that immediately invites the kind of attacks you continually launch – again forget the substance, go for the personalities. Your sidestep here and not responding to my 815am continues that rich tradition.

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  6. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    The reason the Frisch attacks personally is in my experience, caused by a lack of his intelligence. Anyone with a second grade education can run a rent seeking non-profit. All ones has to do on the application is misspell an misuse words to garner sympathy from the awarding, PC, bureaucrats. That could explain why he continues to attack you George. He is a wannabe smarty.
    As far as BenE is concerned, he is simply naive. I guess I would ask for the top three countries practicing the government he thinks is superior and which he wants the USA to emulate. Can you do that BenE or just complain?

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  7. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    George, scientists whose work shows no AGW are not denigrated on the lack of compliance with a consensus, their work is evaluated and peer reviewed just like any other work is, and critiqued based on its consistency with know facts. It just so happens that they do not agree with the stunningly overwhelming body of scientists who have come to the conclusion that climate change is anthropogenic, so the FACT that they are in a distinct minority can be exploited by people like you to make the charge of persecution (as though these climate denying scientists are Christians being thrown to the lions).
    There is no persecution of scientists who do not support the large body of work proving that AGW is occurring, there is a perfectly legitimate rejection of their claims when it is appropriate based on the overwhelming evidence.
    The results of our Summit, and the 16 others held around the state, will be on CA Economy and the CA Economic Summit web page when they have been collated and reviewed. You want a voice in public processes you need to show up buddy.

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  8. George Rebane Avatar

    SteveF 1017am – Never mentioned that opposing scientists or anyone else was being persecuted (although they might be by grant awarding agencies). I have simply pointed out that those of us on the sidelines who agree with the skeptical scientists, understand and expand on their work, and present such results on their merit are the targets of personal attack and vituperation. And yes, these attackers most frequently don’t have the technical background to weigh the merits of the arguments from either side, but simply cite those with whom they agree.
    Re my “voice in public processes”; thanks for the invitation, but tooting my little trumpet is already taking more time than I had anticipated. Although I am very interested in the output of enclaves composed of such people as yourself and the kind of regional economic developers you and yours seem to attract. With the globally recognized insane fiscal and economic policies now in force in California, you rent-seekers have a loud and destructive voice which we in the minority cannot ignore.

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  9. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    I was taught that you never go to the source of the problem for the solution. SteveF and his ilk are the problem and now they get to be paid to find the solution. What a scam that a pyramid schemer would be afraid to do. The government is truly broken.

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  10. Gregory Avatar

    Wow, this is even worse than the previous two famous “studies” that showed 97 or 98% ‘consensus’, and the ‘scientist’, activist John Cook of the misnamed skepticalscience blog, doesn’t have any more science credentials (he’s BS physics, has been making a living drawing cartoons and blogging) than I have and his own page makes it clear he isn’t a “climate scientist”, either.
    What does the paper claim:
    “From the 11 994 papers, 32.6 per cent endorsed AGW, 66.4 per cent stated no position on AGW, 0.7 per cent rejected AGW and in 0.3 per cent of papers, the authors said the cause of global warming was uncertain.”
    Alternative headline:”Of 12,000 papers on the climate, 67% do not identify anthropogenic CO2 as a dangerous driver of our climate”.
    The papers were chosen and scanned by Cook and his warmist buddies. Agreeing for the sake of argument that the percentages are correct and not skewed by the biases of the reviewers, there’s no telling how many of the 66.4% that didn’t state a preference actually disbelieve in the cAGW story but have learned to keep it quiet in order to get their papers published.
    There’s also no correcting for the multitude of papers by the same crowd that always try to make the point that CO2 is scary and we need more grant money for futher research.
    “George, scientists whose work shows no AGW are not denigrated on the lack of compliance with a consensus, their work is evaluated and peer reviewed just like any other work is, and critiqued based on its consistency with know facts.” -Frisch
    Just more bandwagon appeals and Aristotelian argument from authority from Frisch. As astrophyicist Nir Shaviv has reported,
    “I witnessed how an editor rejected a paper I wrote without forwarding the reviewers my detailed response to their comments (he was perhaps afraid that the reviewers would actually be convinced with my detailed response which included detailed referrals to published results proving my points).
    – I saw another rejection (perhaps by the same editor…), this time of a paper written by a colleague that included the punch line: “any paper which doesn’t support the anthropogenic GHG theory is politically motivated, and therefore has to be rejected”
    – I saw how proposal reviewers bluntly reject funding requests, based on similar beliefs in the global warming apocalypse. I even know of someone who didn’t get tenure because he advocated non party line ideas.”

    That isn’t science, that’s activism. Fortunately, there are physical science journals that don’t have that particular affliction, though even there it’s smart not to make waves unless the author is established well enough to ride it to publication.
    Then there’s the Nenanaak Ice Classic, a lottery based on the breakup of the ice of a north flowing Alaskan river. It’s within 4 days of being the latest thaw of the past 97 years, but, of course, since it’s cold and not heat, it’s “weather”, not “climate”.
    http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/
    Frisch, you might want to stick your head in the freezer… with the door closed, it’s just as dark as it is where you have it now.

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  11. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    First Greg, you can go look at the peer review process for the Cook study…….one does not have to be a climate scientist to do a survey of climate papers, as evidenced by the fat that YOU are not climate climate scientist, yet have authority to speak on the issue.
    Second, an article being rejected by a journal is not evidence of persecution….perhaps he/she was a poor writer, or the article did not fulfill other requirements of publication, or it did not fit the editorial direction at the time….there are thousand of places and ways to publish out there….so I am a little skeptical of a few scientists who claim persecution when it is tough for anyone to get published…
    But you all go ahead and make your case…. we don’t have to worry about CO2 because its good for plants…..97% of climate scientists are wrong and motivated by government grants while the brave 3% are purely motivated…..there has been no warming for 16 years, although AGW scientists have said for years that warming would occur in fits and starts, and I could take that same 16 years, place it in a slightly longer context and make it appear to be warming….there is a global conspiracy of tens of thousands of scientists across the globe from more than 100 countries to convince people that AGW is occurring ……this is where your tin foil hats really show…
    Bottom line is you guys don’t know your a**es from a hole in the ground. Russ and George are motivated by ideology. They see climate change as a challenge to unfettered laissez fair capitalism, which in many ways it is, because it is the externalization of costs in the form of GHG emissions and pollution that are the root cause of climate change, and only by creating systems that internalize those costs and mitigate the impacts can we effectively combat climate change.
    You Greg are just a toady along for the ride because your main motivation is that you like to argue.

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  12. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Lets start with the basic premise of the piece: that rising CO2 levels are not a threat to plant life. I wonder just who Professors Schmitt and Happer think they are arguing against? No botanist would say that rising CO2 levels in and themselves are a threat to all plant life, they would say it is a risk to SOME plant life, and in all my listening to climatologists and botanists talk about the issue, I have never heard one contend that, without the caveat that some plant life would thrive and some would be at risk. So Schmitt and Happer are actually making the case against a point that no one is making. What they do contend is that rising CO2 levels is a risk to how humans have adapted to use plant life, and not necessarily from the CO2 level itself, but from the effect of the CO2 in the atmosphere and the risk that the greenhouse effect will change and has been changing weather patterns.
    Do you deny the greenhouse effect and the role that CO2 in the atmosphere plays on it? If so, you (and they) are in a distinct minority, not just amongst scientists, but amongst 8th graders.
    The risk is not from the CO2, it is from drought, flood, fire, insect infestation, pathogens and changing vegetation patterns. Ask anyone growing corn in Iowa or India if the, “increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will benefit the increasing population on the planet”, as Schmitt and Happer contend. Humans have adapted to growing certain crops in certain places based on the prevailing climate patterns. That adaptation has led to a specific land ownership and use pattern. Change the climate patterns and WHAT we grow WHERE changes. In a world where more than 1/3 of the population lives at subsistence levels changing crop patterns is a huge risk, and not just for starvation or reversing the gains of Norman Borlaug’s green revolution, but for the creation of millions of climate refugees, and the displacement and war that comes from that.
    In short, this argument is what is known as a “fallacy of exclusion” (a term also taught in high school debate).
    A look at the science behind this argument demonstrates its inherent weaknesses. In a greenhouse, or a closed environment, an increase in CO2 spurs plant growth. However, the globe is not a controlled environment, and its incredible sensitivity to a variety of factors is something that is often taken for granted when an argument based on a false premise like this is made. A rise in CO2 levels is not the ONLY consequence of climate change, it is one of MANY effects of climate change, and it is these other effects that have had and will have more abiding adverse effects on plant growth around the world.
    While CO2 stimulates plant growth, the planet’s flora requires a number of other elements, like water and nutrients, to maintain its health. The most important of these elements is water. Change the availability of water, as farmers in the Central Valley know this year when they are going to get about 30% of their normal allotment, and you change our ability to grow plants (I would contend a 2nd grader knows this). With changes to our climates balance, an increase in the greenhouse effect, and increased evaporation means decreased soil moisture. Another effect of global climate change is erratic precipitation patterns. This causes extreme weather in certain geographic locations only sporadically, with overall, balanced rainfall drastically reduced. We don’t need to model this (although we do) we can see it.
    The “CO2 helps plants” argument is a simple logical fallacy, because it assumes that the ONLY thing that helps plants grow is CO2, that is proven false, not by climate science but by botany. They may grow more while they have water because they have more CO2, then die because they have no water (or nutrients, or flood, or burn, or are infested). The argument only focuses on ONE cause and effect while ignoring all of the others, and this it is just purely ignorant on its face.

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  13. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    So let me get this straight. Greggory is actually a scientist and Frisch is a failed cook in a restaurant yet Frisch is all knowing about the science under discussion here?
    OK, I think I get it.

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  14. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    Todd,
    “I guess I would ask for the top three countries practicing the government he thinks is superior and which he wants the USA to emulate. Can you do that BenE or just complain?”
    I have done this for you many times in the past, so why bother doing it again. Your foolishness never seems to wear out but I guess that is what makes you, you.

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  15. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    BenE, in the time you could have answered my question you chose to chastise. That is a psychological problem you have I guess. No answer from you is very telling.

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  16. Gregory Avatar

    “97% of climate scientists are wrong and motivated by government grants while the brave 3% are purely motivated”
    No Frisch, it never was 97%. This latest round from Cooke and his volunteer “reviewers” from “SkepticalScience” is yet another fake measure to herd the sheep. Say “bahhhh”, you’ve earned it. Earlier fake 97% measures like Oreskes’ survey of papers or the grad student who asked 10,000 earth scientists to do an online survey, ~3000 did, and she threw out all of them save 77, and declared a 97% consensus for answering two of the questions exactly as I would have.
    In the meantime, the Nenana, AK Ice Classic is 3 days away from being the latest breakup of river ice, the coldest winter and spring, in the last 97 years. It’s already guaranteed to be at least the 2nd coldest result.
    The latest that’s got people laughing at the Cook survey: they (Cook’s fans who used his website to help classify papers) actually found more papers whose abstracts rejected the AGW premise (78) than those that found people to be the dominant cause of the warming (65).
    Steve Frisch, you’re being had.
    Friends of mine used to talk about the guilty pleasures of reading “Bush Porn”, sites that echoed every bit of anti Bush sentiment. Right now, “Warmist Porn” Climate Depot has lots of links for people ripping Cook a new one. Enjoy.
    http://www.climatedepot.com/

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  17. Gregory Avatar

    “You Greg are just a toady along for the ride because your main motivation is that you like to argue.”
    No, Steve, I like to argue these points because in in March 2007, I came to the conclusion that the world has been lied to regarding this so-called consensus, and there has been, since the mid ’90’s, a growing body of evidence that solar and other natural variations has been the driver of the observed warming of the 20th century.
    I’ve taken a great deal of abuse from you and others like you for daring to speak out on this, belittled endlessly for being “anti science” by people who have never even sat in one lecture in one class surrounded by peers who are on a science track. What were you taking, Steve? Was it “Chemistry for scientists” suitable for chem, physics, engineering and adventurous biology majors (willing to risk a low grade on a harder class than required) or “Your Friend, the Amoeba” meant for the folks who really didn’t want to learn much about science and needed ‘science’ credits to graduate?
    No, Steve, I argue against you not because I just like to argue; you’re a science-illiterate, pompous jerk who has swallowed the AGW story because you think it gives you and the government the moral authority to force the people to pay more for less energy.
    In 2007, AGW alarmism was at its zenith. It’s been gratifying to feel the wind blowing in the opposite direction.

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  18. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Yeah, just more meaningless rhetoric for the ‘scientist; here.

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  19. Russ Steele Avatar

    Steven @ 03:30PM
    Oops. Stevens intellectual quiver is empty!

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  20. Gregory Avatar

    Yet another ad hominem from the resident rent-seeker. Steve, I suspect if you could have made a logical argument against any of my points, you would have.
    Russ, on this subject, Frisch’s intellectual quiver has always been empty; it’s his rhetorical reserve that has been spent.
    The Nenana Ice Classic is still looking to be one for the record books, guaranteed to be at least the second longest ice season (the longest, May 20, was in the 1960’s) of 97 years, and “And across the entire Bering Sea, the ice is slowly growing at a time when it should be breaking up, said Kathleen Cole, lead ice forecaster in Alaska for the National Weather Service.”
    http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130517/cold-hard-facts-new-century-frigid-alaska
    Of course, that’s just weather.

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  21. Gregory Avatar

    Might be nice to finish this thread with a link containing a video of Princeton’s Dr. Happer being interviewed on CNBC.
    http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/5/17/happer-on-cnbc.html
    At the very end he mentions that his expectation is about half of all scientists agree with him, and I don’t disagree. Might even be more than half.

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  22. Steve Frisch Avatar
    Steve Frisch

    Really Greg, you think that is going to be the last word? I could not help posting this article from the Guardian debunking the latest book from the Heartland Institute with a forward from…you guessed it…Harrison Schmitt…
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/may/20/heartland-institute-scientists

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  23. Gregory Avatar

    So many ad hominems, so little time.
    It would appear Frisch couldn’t find anything to smear Princeton’s Dr. Happer, and so a hit piece from an engineering prof at a 3rd tier engineering school against some Heartland screed that Dr. Schmitt wrote a foreword to had to do.
    I don’t know what Schmitt wrote that deserved such treatment as I haven’t read that Heartland piece and, spending a minute at their site (I don’t use it myself) I did find this bio of Schmitt.
    http://heartland.org/harrison-schmitt
    He’s no slouch, Steve. You might try actually tearing into what he’s written rather than indirect ad hominems from activist bloggers.

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  24. Gregory Avatar

    The Amazon preview page served up Schmitt’s foreword and the first couple chapters. Schmitt’s foreword was appropriate and reasonable, the book is not my cup of tea.
    http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982499620#reader_B0093N7PXA

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  25. Gregory Avatar

    “Cook’s 97% consensus study falsely classifies scientists’ papers according to the scientists that published them”
    A blogger took Cook’s cited studied and asked a few of the authors if their papers were correctly categorized. To my surprise, two of them are some of the more celebrated skeptics, including both Nir Shaviv (co-author of the most important paper in my journey from AGW believer to AGW scoffer, “Celestial driver of phanerozoic climate?”, 2003) and Nicola Scarfetta, whose most recent paper pegs CO2 sensitivity well below the IPCC AR4 estimates.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/21/cooks-97-consensus-study-falsely-classifies-scientists-papers-according-to-the-scientists-that-published-them/

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  26. Gregory Avatar

    Just saw this and thought it really had a home in this thread… Cato’s Pat Michaels:
    “Three years ago, I ran into former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd at a ritzy Northwest Washington restaurant. We exchanged pleasantries, but before long, our conversation became unpleasant.
    Since climate science is my field, I felt compelled to point out that Mr. Rudd’s support for a cap-and-trade policy for carbon emissions had recently helped cost him his job as prime minister. “Well, what should I have done?” he replied. “My scientists, I say, my scientists, told me this is an important problem.”
    Having closely followed implementation of Mr. Rudd’s cap-and-trade, my response was admittedly a little testy: “Your scientists said exactly what you paid them to tell you.”
    Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/may/28/my-scientists-made-me-shrink-your-car/#ixzz2UdpU8yCj
    “Your scientists said exactly what you paid them to tell you.” is a fine example of Eisenhower’s warning of a technological elite capturing public policy. The article is well worth reading.

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