Rebane's Ruminations
January 2013
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George Rebane

Never confuse effort with achievement.

Inauguration2013The country is in shambles, and it’s time to think of historical legacies.  Fortunately, as Barack Obama formally starts his second term, the President can salve both through implementing the same set of policies.

Over the last four years these pages have detailed the mistakes of this administration which have accelerated the country on the path to fiscal ruin, domestic polarization, and international ineffectiveness (even The Economist and The Heritage Foundation agree on these).  And though he regained the presidency, most Americans still believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction.  What should the President do to assure his place in history as a leader who, after recovering from first-term missteps, was able to turn the country around and regain America’s promise in the 21st century?

According to my lights he should do as much of the following as possible –

1.    Launch a massive deregulation of America and American life that includes the consolidation and/or elimination of federal departments such as Energy, Education, EPA, Commerce, … .
2.    Develop a new tax code that is simple, as flat as possible, and eliminates the convolutions of federal favoritism, behavior modifications, and inhibitions to re-enter the workforce.
3.    Reduce federal taxes to historical 18% levels of GDP, and balance the federal budget.
4.    Recognize Singularity’s advent and the new labor markets that it will mandate, including the generation of wealth by fewer people using ever more productive technology.
5.    Revamp public education to benefit America’s youth instead of those who run the ‘public teaching industry’.
6.    Eliminate all public service unions in governments and public education.
7.    Eliminate corporate and agricultural welfare (not needed under new tax code).
8.    Restructure Obamacare from the unintended and poorly conceived burden that it will now be, to newly formed open, state run markets that invite more competition at the levels and practice of healthcare providers, insurance, and pharma.  This includes a revision of the tort laws that promote litigiousness.
9.    Restructure entitlements so that their funding is converted to benefit from more private sector investment than untenable taxes which inhibit economic growth.
10.    Become a net energy exporter by developing America’s abundant energy resources, especially gas.
11.    Engage with our international trading partners – China, EU, South America, Russia, … – to the maximum extent possible to assure that only goods, not armies, cross the world’s borders.
12.    Declare a climate change holiday to reevaluate the entire proposition of AGW and its alternative, global cooling on the basis of science and not international politics.
13.    Acknowledge the existence of Islamic terror and its demonstrated anti-western objectives, and work toward a quick two state solution with Israel and Palestine.  This includes promoting strategically located Gaza to become the world’s most productive and prosperous free port – i.e. get the Palestinians into commerce big time, and invite the Israelis to join them with the long term leasing of adjacent real estate needed for expansion – it is only through business and commercial growth that a sustainable peace will be achieved in the near and mid-east.
14.    Revamp our military to project power with air, naval, and space systems that use ground troops in sparing and short engagements.  Use the goal of normalizing Iran and parity with China in the Pacific as the design standard for a new force structure.
15.    Encourage private sector space enterprises, and give NASA a new inspiring objective that invites international co-operation to achieve man’s next great step on its way to the stars.
16.    Honor American citizenship by securing our borders and legitimizing our resident illegal aliens onto acceptable paths to residency, repatriation, or citizenship.
17.    Re-establish the constitutional intent of states’ rights, and encourage states to resume their role as competitive laboratories of liberty and prosperity.

[Addendum]  After some reflection I want to add some ruminations on President Obama’s second inaugural speech.  To me it was an extremely ideological speech – an impression corroborated tonight by talking heads of both persuasions – that underlined what I have been interpreting about this man’s belief system since his 2008 stump speeches.  The liberal Washington Post opined that it was “a speech that challenges the other side”, but was primarily targeted to his base.  He no longer needs to pander to us all.

His parade contained no acknowledgement of our European legacy – no units with costumed Pilgrims, no Revolutionary War patriots, no nod to the entrepreneurs of our industrial revolution, no recognition of our great westward movement that formed what today is America, no nod to the faith that saw our forebears through unimaginable difficulties.  Instead he was entertained by a bunch of hoaky Indians dancing in Hollywood-like costumes in an ensemble that included women to satisfy politically correct gender equality dicta.  I was surprised that no obviously gay couples were included in the spectacle; perhaps I missed them.

One of my maxims has been to “Never confuse effort with accomplishment.”  President Obama left no doubt that in his America both should be equated and equally rewarded.  And he let us know that he is proud of his ideology, which means that he will do everything that he can to implement it during the first, say, eighteen months before he becomes a certified lame duck.

Today he gave no quarter to his political opponents; he sought no reconciliation between the country’s ideological poles.  His legacy will be that of the leftmost ideologue of all American presidents.  He made it clear that he was not acknowledging the many paths up the historical mountain of America’s common future of achievement; instead he told us that he would lead us up a different mountain altogether (and there’s more to be said about that).

In the large view, he wants to be remembered as perhaps the co-equal of MLK as America’s preeminent civil rights leader.  Of one thing we can be certain, in our history his regime will be more than merely noteworthy.

Posted in , ,

119 responses to “This President’s Second Term (addended)”

  1. Walt Avatar

    Here are a few of the attacks they tried to pass against the 2ND Amendment in NY.
    These are the ones ( as far as I can tell) that DIDN’T make it into the books.
    Then again, the week isn’t over.
    1.Confiscation of “assault weapons”
    2.Confiscation [of] ten round clips
    3.Statewide database for ALL Guns
    4.Continue to allow pistol permit holder’s information to be replaced to the public
    5.Label semiautomatic shotguns with more than 5 rounds or pistol grips as “assault weapons”
    6.Limit the number of rounds in a magazine to 5 and confiscation and forfeiture of banned magazines
    7.Limit possession to no more than two (2) magazines
    8.Limit purchase of guns to one gun per person per month
    9.Require re-licensing of all pistol permit owners
    10.Require renewal of all pistol permits every five years
    11.State issued pistol permits
    12.Micro-stamping of all guns in New York State
    13.Require licensing of all gun ammo dealers
    14.Mandatory locking of guns at home
    15.Fee for licensing, registering weapons
    Now here in Ca,, There is a numbnut LIB that wants to make a law
    that will require us to get a PERMIT just to by ammo. Stalin would be so proud.

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  2. Gregory Avatar

    “Currently public opinion is supporting the case that global warming is real, including nearly half of the Republicans. If this continues it will reflect in the ’14 elections.” – Paul E
    I don’t rely on polling to separate fact from fantasy, and the polling is mostly fantasy. Tell millions of people the bad weather is due to global warming, they believe it.
    When everyone can tell global warming isn’t continuing, there will be one and only one set of politicians to be pissed at. I only hope the AGW alarmists don’t take all of science down with their sinking ship, and it is taking on water faster than it can be bailed at the moment. When even Hansen has to admit there hasn’t been warming in a decade, the end is near.
    It’s worth mentioning that the New York Times, in 1920, opined that rocket scientist (in the truest sense of the word) Robert Goddard was a crackpot, and that in the vacuum of space, where there was nothing to push against, rockets would not work. It wasn’t until the Apollo mission of July 1969 taking Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins for a real E ticket ride that they published the following retraction:
    “Correction. On Jan. 13, 1920, “Topics of the Times,” an editorial-page feature of the The New York Times, dismissed the notion that a rocket could function in vacuum and commented on the ideas of Robert H. Goddard, the rocket pioneer, as follows:
    “That Professor Goddard, with his ‘chair’ in Clark College and the countenancing of the Smithsonian Institution, does not know the relation of action to reaction, and of the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react – to say that would be absurd. Of course he only seems to lack the knowledge ladled out daily in high schools.”
    Further investigation and experimentation have confirmed the findings of Isaac Newton in the 17th Century and it is now definitely established that a rocket can function in a vacuum as well as in an atmosphere. The Times regrets the error.”
    The Times will eventually be writing a similar retraction for their Global Warming alarmism, just not today.

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  3. Paul Emery Avatar

    George
    2. Develop a new tax code that is simple, as flat as possible, and eliminates the convolutions of federal favoritism, behavior modifications, and inhibitions to re-enter the workforce.
    In your view would this mean an increase in taxes on low income Americans and an decrease on the wealthy?

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  4. Gregory Avatar

    Walt, I happened into a WalMart today and before I did the shopping I had a list for I went to their sporting goods section to have a look at their ammo prices, since they have a reputation for being a leading ammo retailer… the prices were OK but the shelves were bare. No rimfire ammo at all. Not a single box of any common rifle and pistol round save a handful of boxes of .243 Win and 30-06. They had a couple boxes of .45 Colt, too. I’d say they were 98% sold out.

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  5. Ken Jones Avatar
    Ken Jones

    Walt when you can determine the difference between vary and very we might be able to have a conversation. You have issues with basic math Walt. 7.9% is the same as 7.9%. You state your “real” numbers but the fact remains the standard for measuring UE is 7.9%. In addition, you claim this AGW religion nonsense yet you kneel at the altar of Beck and the Birther BS you still don’t reject. I trust the vast majority of scientists in regards to climate change regardless of the junk science provide by some on this board.

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  6. George Rebane Avatar

    Fuzz 114pm – Not wanting to rewrite America’s regulations in this comment stream, I was referring to a mix of combining and eliminating certain departments and agencies. Very definitely the EPA would be on my elimination list – they are an unconstitutional and rogue agency which has played havoc on our economy, liberties, and property rights. Necessary environmental regulations can be parceled out to the states and relevant agencies that oversee certain sectors of our countries enterprises and activities. A leviathan agency like the EPA has no place in a democratic republic that still seeks to live by laws passed by elected representatives.
    PaulE 301pm – Again, not wanting to design the new tax code in this comment stream, for starters I would offer a flat tax with the caveats as defined by several of the right leaning organizations like Cato (http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/flat-tax-is-answer , http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/flat-tax-is-answer ), Heritage (http://blog.heritage.org/2011/12/15/morning-bell-its-time-to-kiss-the-tax-code-goodbye/ ), Mercatus (http://mercatus.org/media_clipping/flat-tax-ideas-and-interest ). Each of them would have a low end cutoff for the really poor among us, that’s why I said “as flat as possible”. Would like to hear if you have any overarching specs for a new tax code (given that you believe a new one is required).

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  7. Paul Emery Avatar

    Gregory
    Polling was pretty accurate in the last election for sure. A measure of public opinion this time will be taken very seriously by Republicans in the next election and will reflect on their choices for political office to avoid the disaster of ’12. The Dems won’t get handed such a fat ball next time as the Repubs rush to the middle which will include acknowledging global warming.

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  8. George Rebane Avatar

    PaulE 338pm – Yes, the Repubs are in a quandary about what ideology they want to represent. If they do as you predict, they will help launch a new party on the right. And if Obama the Autocratic Ideologue pushes too hard on his far left agenda, he might single-handedly launch a new center left party. That might give us the multi-party system, each with a narrower ideological focus, that some of us have promoted when the two tents got to be so large as to be meaningless in representing anyone’s specific interests. And no doubt the road to such a multi-party future will be very rocky.

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  9. Gregory Avatar

    “I trust the vast majority of scientists in regards to climate change regardless of the junk science provide by some on this board.”
    What Ken Jones is saying is that he trusts the scientists that the journalists he reads bother to report on.
    Ken, did you ever take a real science class in college? By that, I mean a science class where everyone attending were majoring in chemistry, physics, engineering and mathematics, maybe some of the harder core biology tracks? “Your friend, the Amoeba” or other science appreciation classes don’t count. In other words, would you recognize a scientist if you actually saw one? Could you jump high enough to kiss one on the bum?
    There are literally over a thousand papers in peer reviewed journals that support skeptical and even scoffing views of IPCC brand AGW alarmism. It isn’t “junk science”, just science that’s ignored, later attacked, by folks who have a need to believe what has been peddled by the IPCC since the ’80’s.

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  10. Walt Avatar

    Ken, O’ ken, OHHH KEN!!!! Are your really that ill informed? ( PLEASE say it’s so)
    “You have issues with basic math Walt. 7.9% is the same as 7.9%. You state your “real” numbers but the fact remains the standard for measuring UE is 7.9%.”
    I guess school is in session for ya’. The “published” UP may be 7.9%.
    But that number ONLY reflects unemployment checks going out. That’s it.
    Those not receiving UP ARE NOT COUNTED. Those that have stopped even looking for employment ARE NOT COUNTED.
    The number of people employed today don’t even come close to the number only four years ago, where a LOT more people were working. ( like ME for instance) ( and somehow the “published” UP is the same as four years ago)
    See how good things look when you take out those damned, dirty facts that make Government meddling the real bad guy?
    When have the GOV bean counters ever been right? ” The UP this month was “X””,
    then the next week,, on a Friday quietly revise “X” to “Y” or “Z”.
    Once again you appear to be a victim of Progressive ” information” They tell you only what their overseers want you to know. And you fell for it hook, line and sinker.
    Class Dismissed.

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  11. George Rebane Avatar

    Re Gregory’s 408pm, I might add that an alarming fraction of published research is just plain wrong. And you can bet the farm that this caution applies doubly to today’s papers on general circulation models, let alone their exercise with dubious input data.
    It never ceases to amaze me how the Left believes that government sponsored research (i.e. fed money) is unbiased, yet corporate sponsored research is definitely not to be believed.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/oct/01/tenfold-increase-science-paper-retracted-fraud
    http://www.economist.com/node/12376658

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  12. Russ Steele Avatar

    Ken@3:30PM
    Dear Ken,
    As for the junks science presented on this board. You have the option to present your facts to refute that “junk science.” So far I have not seen any facts that hold up to examination. So, it is not junk science until you prove your case. Get with it and try harder!

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  13. Gregory Avatar

    “The Dems won’t get handed such a fat ball next time as the Repubs rush to the middle which will include acknowledging global warming.”
    It’s more likely, based on what’s coming down the pike, that “global warming” will be in full retreat with even most Democratic pols looking for the exits. Paul, it isn’t happening. Even James Hansen is admitting temperatures have been flat over the past decade; of course, he of “death trains” of coal believes the warming will come back, and his funding continued, but he’ll be the last one on the planet to admit he’s been wrong for the past 25 years, ever since he gave that testimony in the Congress with the air conditioning turned off for effect.

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  14. Gregory Avatar

    George, there’s also this gem reported by astrophysicist Nir Shaviv:
    “I saw [a] rejection … of a paper written by a colleague that included the punch line: “any paper which doesn’t support the anthropogenic GHG theory is politically motivated, and therefore has to be rejected”
    That’s how you manufacture a consensus: demand peer reviewed papers, and deny access to journals of scientists who come to politically incorrect conclusions.
    Again, Shaviv only became entangled in climate science when he found his research on galactic cosmic ray flux matched perfectly with the ocean temperatures of the past 500+ million years calculated by geochemist Jan Veizer. CO2 correlated poorly, which had been leading Veizer to consider abandoning his research because he wasn’t getting the results everyone expected.

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  15. Gregory Avatar

    ” I might add that an alarming fraction of published research is just plain wrong.”
    George,and that has always been the case. IMHO much of science is about publishing original research, putting it out there where it can either be shot down, rallied around, or just ignored, the last of which is probably the most common result, either because it’s wrong or inconsequential.

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  16. Ken Jones Avatar
    Ken Jones

    Greg thanks for the snarky ill informed comments. Yes I took “real” science in college. Many science courses in fact. I really don’t need your deprecating “humor” Greg. Just try being civilized for once. And I don’t need you to state what I am saying; I am quite capable of stating what I believe without your editorial comments. In fact Greg you may need to pull your head out of the bums of those “scientists” you believe as the view has certainly clouded your judgment, or lack thereof.

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  17. Ken Jones Avatar
    Ken Jones

    Walt you evidently never took a class in your life so you cannot dismiss what you do not understand.

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  18. Walt Avatar

    Now that the people on the “right” and maybe even a “Centrist” or two
    have laid out some facts that can be found at multiple but separate
    places, it’s time to sit back at watch the insults and attacks role in
    with nothing of real “evidence” to the contrary of what has been laid forth.
    Let the ” mining” of the net begin.( it’s about the only mining that’s still legal in Ca. at this point, Thanks to Liberal thinking.)

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  19. Walt Avatar

    LOL!!! Called that one! ( Kenny’s little snipe wasn’t there before I hit the send button)

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  20. Gregory Avatar

    “Many science courses in fact.” KJ
    Really? Interesting. A few semesters of a calculus based physics, a few semesters of calculus based chemistry, including physical chemistry? Differential equations, ordinary, partial and mixed? Statistical mechanics, thermodynamics?
    What did you major in? I gather you’re in a “social science” practice now, were you ever a practitioner of a physical science?
    BTW your snark regarding Limbaugh and junk science set the tone today.

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  21. Gregory Avatar

    “Are you aware that only 77 of the 3146 scientist answered the silly question, and only 75 responded in the positive. Thus your silly number of 97.5%. On the other hand, 97.7% of the scientist asked thought the question too stupid to answer.”
    Russ, earlier today.
    Russ, your analysis is way off base. All the the 3146 of the 10,000 invited to take the survey answered the questions; the issue is how many results had to be thrown out to get the 97/98% unanimity they were looking to get. Many questions were asked, but were not discussed outside the thesis. The two questions, boiled down, were
    1) Has it gotten warmer since the end of the little ice age?, and,
    2) Does man have a significant effect on climate?
    In order to get 75/77 answering yes to both, they winnowed it down to practicing climate scientists who have published recently. Now, I’ve never claimed to be a climate scientist but I agree, the answer to both questions is yes, but it doesn’t mean what Ken Jones wants it to mean.
    The questions did not reference CO2, did not ask if a catastrophic warming is being risked by fossil fuel, did not even ask if most of the 20th century warming was anthropogenic in nature; just “significant”. For example, if there was 3.3 degrees warming over a particular time, “significant” might be as small as 0.1 degrees, about 3% of the total. That’s small, but “significant”.
    How many of the 75/77 that Ken Jones endows with such authority think substantially as I do, that the AGW scare is essentially incorrect, is unknown, and there’s no way to check because the survey was completely anonymous and there’s no way to poll the participants or even determine if they were honest in their self assessments.

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  22. Ken Jones Avatar
    Ken Jones

    Greg your typical nasty comments set the tone everyday. Wouldn’t expect less from you. I have no desire in discussing my academics with you either.

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  23. Gregory Avatar

    Ken, they only appear “nasty” because after all the crap I’ve taken from alarmists like you, I just don’t pull my punches.
    I suspect you took bio or environmental science classes, and that just doesn’t cover much of the high ground. I’ve been told the chemistry department at UC Berkeley was always happy when a life science major would sign up for a real chem class instead of the watered down version designed for premeds wanting a better GPA that doesn’t prepare for further study of the science. Many of them would have done fine in the classes intended for science majors.

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  24. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    Greg, KJ did not even finish 8th grade science but like all his ilk, they are still smarter than any conservative scientist. He is simply a leftwing bloviator, Obama butt kisser. What a hoot.

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  25. Walt Avatar

    UUUggggg.. Tought night Ken?

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  26. Ryan Mount Avatar

    Scott 02:10 PM.
    For the record I am a follower, like many post-moderns, of Classicism, even though I enjoy tearing it apart like a toddler does with a 1000 piece puzzle. (one might go mad trying to deconstruct Plato’s Phaedrus and his discussion on the immortality of the soul.)
    Above I was referring to the rather dark and cynical modernists who after experiencing two horrific World Wars, decided there was no center. No point, really. The following generation, the post-moderns, took it one step further by questioning the underpinning and assumptions of the entire Western belief system. It was not that God, or truth or a center wasn’t there. It was a series questions: what is God and what is truth and what does one mean when we say things like higher or “center?” You might hear a post-modern say something like, “truth is contextual; the truth is a construction, not an absolute. What does absolute mean anyway?” But mostly post-moderns are assholes who ask a lot of questions about one’s assumptions.
    So I would caution against equating post-modernism with laziness. Nihilism? I’ll take that criticism; don’t agree, but I’m used to hearing that as well as being called a parasite on western culture.
    Of course this esoteric rant is germane to our first post-modern President. We had a taste of it with Clinton, but now Obama’s a full-throttle anti-colonialist, deconstructionist, liberation theology touting ideologue…who tends, for the most part, to keep his post-modernism cards close to his chest. He’s moderated his positions to some extent, but there are plenty of clues if we dig into his past notably his books and his past activism.
    In the European/Anglo/Western Tradition
    – Greece (lots of smart bad asses)
    – Rome (lots of smart bad asses who copied the Greek bad asses, sans Cicero)
    – Middle Ages – 5th Century – 14th Century (horrible time. Chaucer…thank god for Chaucer)
    – Renaissance & Restoration 14th Century – 1650ish (Shakespeare, da Vinci
    – Classic/Enlightenment 1650ish – 1790 (Locke, Newton, Voltaire, Jefferson, Madison)
    – Romantics 1790ish – 1830 (Blake, Goethe, Beethoven, Napoleon)
    – Transcendentalist 1830/40 (Emerson, Liszt)
    – Victorians = 1837 -1901 (Darwin, Curie, Dickens, literacy, Lincoln)
    – Modernist = post WWI – WWII (Joyce, Lévi-Strauss, Hitler, Hemingway)
    – Post-Moderns = > WWII – now (Derrida, Barthes, any number of ephemeral pop stars, Dr. Oz, Elvis. Paul Ryan…yes, Paul Ryan. Obama.)

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  27. Joe Koyote Avatar
    Joe Koyote

    This place more resembles the green room before a WWF cagematch than a place for intelligent conversation. When people resort to personal attacks and name calling, it usually means that they don’t really have any rational or logical defense of their position so they try and quiet opposition with verbal intimidation. What a hoot.

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  28. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    Ryan,
    May I suggest
    The Fourth Turning:
    An American Prophecy—What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny
    I bet you would find it fascinating
    Looking back to the dawn of the modern world, The Fourth Turning reveals a distinct pattern in human history, cycles lasting about the length of a long human life. Each cycle is composed of four “turnings,” and each turning lasts the span of a generation (about 20 years). There are four kinds of turnings (High, Awakening, Unraveling, Crisis), and they always occur in the same order.
    http://store.lifecourse.com/products/15/The-Fourth-Turning.html

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  29. Gregory Avatar

    Ryan, dig out “Medieval Technology and Social Change” by Lynn White, it will change your mind about the medieval period. Without the innovation of the medieval, there would not have been the Renaissance. My favorite history prof was a medievalist who got his PhD with White at UCLA.
    Architecture (think all those gothic cathedrals), music (the first to put their name on a piece of music was Perotin, the organist at the cathedral of Notre Dame in the late 12th century; one of his reviewers wrote “When you hear the soft harmonies of the various singers, some taking high and others low parts, some singing in advance, some following in the rear, others with pauses and interludes, you would think yourself listening to a concert of sirens rather than men, and wonder at the powers of voices … whatever is most tuneful among birds, could not equal. Such is the facility of running up and down the scale; so wonderful the shortening or multiplying of notes, the repetition of the phrases, or their emphatic utterance: the treble and shrill notes are so mingled with tenor and bass, that the ears lost their power of judging. When this goes to excess it is more fitted to excite lust than devotion; but if it is kept in the limits of moderation, it drives away care from the soul and the solicitudes of life, confers joy and peace and exultation in God, and transports the soul to the society of angels”
    Perotin’s music can only be approximated as the technology of musical notation was in its infancy, helped along by the likes of Perotin. Gregorian Chants are lovely but Perotin layered three and four part polyphony on top of chants.
    The heavy plow, a medieval invention, expanded agriculture and allowed better nutrition; the invention of the stirrup in a roundabout way (one of White’s observations) helped sew the seeds of feudalism and the breakup of the vast holdings of the church.
    Whisky, too. Chaucer chose well for his stories but was far from being the sole salvation of the period.

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  30. Ken Jones Avatar
    Ken Jones

    Hardly Walt, quite comical and expected.

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  31. Gregory Avatar

    Ken, if you’re just going to toss spitballs, we’ll have to start talking about those science classes of yours.

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  32. George Rebane Avatar

    BenE 920pm – The book sounds fascinating. Read parts of the first chapter, ordered it. Thanks.

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  33. n Avatar
    n

    BenE 920pm
    Google ‘cliodynamics’. Peter Turchin has several books on amazon.

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  34. George Rebane Avatar

    Cliodynamics has been a fascinating siren song for historians and systems types for some years now. The field essentially tries to predict the future of broad historical arcs down to the fate of individual countries/empires using the tools of systems science. The approaches vary from attempting to extract repetitive paradigms from historical data, to developing agent based models and running them forward to see what will happen. Both approaches, of course, can be and are back tested. (This much like that done with general circulation models used in climate change studies.)
    The major problem with such approaches (also used in the attempts to find securities market prediction tools) is that their ‘subjects’ are systems that can be considered both self-aware and intelligent. Such subjects can and will game the system to their benefit if they discover the predicted outcomes. Depending on the level/scope of such discoveries and commensurate responses, such gaming will change the modeled, and therefore predicted, outcomes in unpredictable ways.
    NN Taleb (of Black Swan fame) has long studied such processes in the context of markets and public policies. I have covered some of his work here, and will soon offer up some more thoughts on his formulation of stochastic adaptivity of systems which he has presented within the notions of fragility and “antifragility”.

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  35. Russ Steele Avatar

    BenE@9:20PM
    Interesting book, I download the Kindle edition from Amazon. I have always been interest in the role climate made in historical cycles. Will be looking to see if the author recognizes Mother Natures role in history.

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  36. Douglas Keachie Avatar
    Douglas Keachie

    Anyone who can predict the markets is not going to tell anyone else about it. As I pointed out before, all the large brokerage houses have a huge leg up in this endeavor. They don’t have to wait to see what buys and sells. They know in advance what orders their customers have placed. No wonder they are rich, and to the outsider, the game is totally rigged, in favor of the brokerage houses.

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  37. Ben Emery Avatar
    Ben Emery

    Thanks George,
    What I found with the fourth turning it really stays true to the archetypes of each generation and doesn’t try to predict specific events. Generational memes that in turn produce the High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis archetypes. It is the previous generation overall meme that creates ours and ours will create the next generations.
    I never heard of the term Cliodynamics before but have always been a student of macro economics, sociology, and human ecology that shaped our ancestors.

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  38. George Rebane Avatar

    BenE 1007am – Yes, the paradigmatic approach in what is now cliodynamics has been described, if not studied in mathematical detail, for centuries by various thinkers. I agree that this kind of analysis and prediction is the best approach, and possibly the best that can be done for chaotic systems. Your suggestion that the survival and interaction of cultural memes (if I understand you correctly) has explanatory power comports with what Julian Jaynes and Richard Dawkins taught, and that now is studied in the field of memetics. That such memes become predominant and interact periodically (or cyclically) may be a productive way of paradigm modeling in cliodynamics and possibly bridge the two fields. Good thoughts Ben.
    To repeat, my disdain for agent based cliodynamic models is that they can be very complex (high bamboozle power), and produce output that looks like (has the attributes of) past historical epochs. But such outputs are seldom reliable predictors of anything to come. They are, however, grist for the minds of light thinkers, especially those with an agenda to bolster.
    A good example is the use of the various general circulation models by the IPCC to promote the acceptance of public policies for controlling AGW. GCMs output very believable data that looks similar to past weather and climate dynamics, but have proven very unreliable for predicting the future. However, one can always learn to ‘twist the knobs’ on such models to produce any desired output.

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  39. Walt Avatar

    Funny how the GW gang hasn’t been on their soap box if the GW “computer” models
    had “predicted” today’s ( at least this last year’s) weather/climate.
    As they say,,, Garbage in, garbage out.
    If the had been anywhere close, they would be using that “proof” today.
    And just think of the millions of dollars spent on a computer game.
    Funny thing about those boxes of microchips, you can make them spit out anything you want them to, no matter what “data” you shove in. It all in the “programming”
    It’s a good thing us humans are not susceptible to said monkey business. ( unless you carry that recessive LIB gene, then all bets are off.

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  40. Paul Emery Avatar

    RE: Gregory | 22 January 2013 at 04:31 PM
    “It’s more likely, based on what’s coming down the pike, that “global warming” will be in full retreat with even most Democratic pols looking for the exits.”
    Gregory, if the messengers (media) are bias as you claim how will this revelation be communicated? Right now public opinion is going he other direction and has momentum in the media and the polls. Even if what you claim is true it will take years to communicate and in the meantime the Pubbers will flop over and accept global warming because they want to be popular and win elections.

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  41. Walt Avatar

    Hear what Hillary said? ” Only two terrorist attacks have been made public”
    Feel safer now? And they call us “prepers” crazy. ( You better hope we are)

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  42. George Rebane Avatar

    re PaulE’s 1114am – Unfortunately, or fortunately as the case may be, the momentum of public opinion is very small, which is another way of saying that public opinion can turn and has turned on a dime – it is pliable and fickle. That is the fundamental reason why leaders throughout history, also joined by our Founders, have argued against direct democracy as a beneficial form of governance.
    However, expecting the nation’s rapid return to a professional fourth estate that seeks truth wherever it leads is expecting too much. The lamestream is totally in the tank for collective causes. Its rank in public esteem is below that of Congress, politicians, and even lawyers. And it is the lamestream that has its hands on the shaping public opinion.
    So with at least two generations of journalists pledging their demonstrated allegiance to bigger government and socialistic goals, to that extent we may agree that the public will not see a balanced and objectively correct presentation of the science behind all (alleged) aspects of climate change any time soon.

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  43. Gregory Avatar

    “Gregory, if the messengers (media) are bias as you claim how will this revelation be communicated?” Paul E 11:14
    Paul, the revelation is happening slowly and surely; had there not been the frenzy of misattribution of Hurricane Sandy to “climate change”, it wouldn’t even have been a topic before the election.
    Between Jon Stewart and Jay Leno, the word can get out pretty quickly and, in any case, when even James Hansen is admitting no (statistically significant) warming in the past 10 years, and the Climategaters are admitting no warming in the past 16 years, it’s only a matter of time before even journalists get the message.

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  44. Gregory Avatar

    “GCMs output very believable data that looks similar to past weather and climate dynamics, but have proven very unreliable for predicting the future.”
    Of course they look similar to past climate, they are tweaked, or “parameterized” or, as you put it, the knobs are twisted, in order to match past records. The problem is that every time they publish results, like in 2007 in the IPCC’s AR4, they show predictions of warming that, when compared to the reality of 2013, are wrong.
    The models overestimate warming because they are wrong. In fact, all models are wrong, it’s just an issue of how much. In the case of the General Circulation Models, they show the current temps as being below the lowest possible temperature the models predict after 6 years, so it might be time to stop using them to predict temps in 2050 or 2100.

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  45. Paul Emery Avatar

    Gregory
    Ths poll I was referring to happened before Hurricane Sandy so it’s a reasonable assumption that Sandy will tilt it even more in support of global warming.
    “According to the poll, conducted between October 4 and October 7, 67 percent of all Americans and 48 percent of Republicans say that the Earth is warming, a 4 percentage-point jump from last year and a 10 percentage-point jump from 2009”
    http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/10/15/poll-half-of-republicans-believe-in-global-warming

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  46. Gregory Avatar

    I remember now, there was a heat wave in July that got a lot of press, followed by a bunch of polls. Imagine, a heat wave in the summertime, who’d have thought that could happen?
    Paul, in case you were wondering, that’s where the junk science lives; pushing true junk science, ‘it’s hot, must be that global warming, is this the future?’, then followed with polls to see how many people bought the message.
    “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and you can fool all of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time”. The end of the hysteria is near; it won’t survive another 18 months of global cooling.

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  47. Russ Steele Avatar

    Paul@02:02PM
    The planet has been warming since the end of the little ice age, but the trend seems to have topped out and now starting to trend downward. This trend is forecast to start accelerating and is it has in all past cooling cycles. But, we live in a chaotic universe and things can happen quite rapidly, volcanos erupt like those cutting loose on the Kamchatka Peninsula, combine that with a quiet sun and things could get rather cold over the next 20 years, starting with this year. But, I digress.
    The real issues is not if the planet is warming, the issue is are humans causing the warming. On that issue only about 1/3 of the Republicans support that idea. Quite a step down from 1/2 believing in global warming.
    Farther down the article is this bit of wisdom:
    Despite the uptick, the numbers are still far below numbers from the middle of last decade, when 77 percent of all Americans and nearly two thirds of Republicans believed the Earth was warming. According to experts, those numbers fell around the time when the economy collapsed in 2008 and people began worrying about other issues.
    “Adults have a limited attention span for public policy issues and tend to grow tired of the same issues if they persist over a number of years … it may be applicable to a long-term issue such as climate change,” Jon Miller, a University of Michigan professor wrote in a July study about Generation X’s thoughts on climate change.

    For almost two decades, 17 years, the general public has been told that humans are causing global warming by expelling CO2 into the atmosphere, yet they are not seeing the forecast warming. Before the 2014 election there will be plenty of time for a crisis that will take Republican and Democrats minds off of the global warming issue, especially with cold winters and cool summers our side their windows. There will be bigger things to worry about, we live a chaotic universe.

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  48. Paul Emery Avatar

    I am not expressing my opinion of Global Warming here but I do have observations as to the public opinion on this matter and how it may play into the next election cycle
    Gregory
    I think you underestimate the support for global warming awareness. What you envision is some sort of massive change of consciousness in a very short time. In your view don’t the progressive control the media? Do you think institutions like NASA are going to say whoops we were wrong?
    Nasa writes
    “The statistics show that the recent bouts of extremely warm summers, including the intense heat wave afflicting the U.S. Midwest this year, very likely are the consequence of global warming, according to lead author James Hansen of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.
    “This summer people are seeing extreme heat and agricultural impacts,” Hansen says. “We’re asserting that this is causally connected to global warming, and in this paper we present the scientific evidence for that.”

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  49. Gregory Avatar

    “I am not expressing my opinion of Global Warming here”
    Paul, but you should. What is Paul Emery’s opinion on catastrophic anthropogenic global warming?
    “I think you underestimate the support for global warming awareness.”
    Not at all. I don’t underestimate it, I condemn it for being based on falsified science.
    To quote James Hansen’s latest paper, “The 5-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slowdown in the growth rate of the net climate forcing.” In other words, the lack of any real warming signal is making it hard to press down with our thumbs on the scale to keep producing warming signals in the terrestrial measurements.
    Perhaps Russ can dig up the graph of the GISS temperature corrections being applied, by year. The NASA-GISS “corrections” account for nearly the entire warming signal. If you look at rural temperature sensors that have been in the same site and operating for a century, there’s little warming to be found in the raw data.
    Is it faked? I don’t think so, it’s just really sloppy science and when people get the results they expect they tend not to look for things to fix.

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  50. Russ Steele Avatar

    Oh Paul,
    Hansen is a warmer and has been rigging the data at GISS for years, lowering past temperatures and raising current temperatures. If he admits that warming is natural all his global warming research money and his cozy team of data adjuster will vanish.
    Here are some reality checks:
    Check out this graphic based on the validated data:
    http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/co2-temp-rss.png
    http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/the-right-stuff-at-nasa/
    WASHINGTON, Jan. 23, 2013 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — A group of 20 ex-NASA scientists have concluded that the science used to support the man-made climate change hypothesis is not settled and no convincing physical evidence exists to support catastrophic climate change forecasts.
    I will find the links showing that Hansen has been rigging the data.

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