Rebane's Ruminations
December 2012
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George Rebane

Just a couple of quick notes on some current and very important topics – the ongoing disaster of federal meddling in the markets, and how our systemic unemployment growth continues to be the biggest secret our ‘establishment’ (both parties) does not want to you to think about.

Remember Fisker, the battery-powered sportscar that was supposed to leap tall buildings in a single bound.  Well, that is the latest of the California-based, government propped and promoted green manufacturing enterprises to go into its death spiral.  Oh, make no mistake that the entire thing can be resurrected as a zombie company with some billions pumped into it, but right now it’s looking for a “partner” while wandering around with a ‘Buy Me, please’ sign pinned to its backside.

What should make it doubly embarrassing, but doesn’t – progressives are never embarrassed when their central planning doesn’t pan out and costs the wealth generators more money – is that the $110K Fisker Karma didn’t even pass the Consumer Reports test procedures to be rated, and the supplier of its battery pack, government subsidized A123 Systems, couldn’t come up with its mandated revolutionary batteries, and is now itself “in the midst of a bankruptcy auction.” (more here)

But none of this makes no never-mind to those Beltway Buffoons who know better what we should buy and how we should live.  This little item adds to the recorded torrent of such ongoing failures of approaching Soviet-era central planning.

America’s systemic unemployment growth continues unchecked and unreported.  What is reported is that the economy continues to grow in its anemic way with another 146K jobs added in November (with downward revisions of 49K jobs for previous months).  While outlets like the WSJ and zerohedge.com go through some of the numbers, even they don’t connect the important dots.

Last month's job numbers allow Team Obama to continue its national recovery bamboozle by citing that the official unemployment rate also dropped from 7.9% to 7.7%.  This happened, not because of the dodgy new jobs number, but because another 350K+ workers just quit looking for work, raising the number of nonworkers in our workforce to 89.2M from 86.8M a year ago.  Throw a brain cell on this, the fraction of people working in our available workforce has now fallen to 63.6%, down from 65.7% when the recession was supposed to have ended in June 2009.

What these percentages hide is the growth of the actual number unemployed.  Remember that the worker demographic continued to grow at somewhere between 1.1% and 1.5% annually during that same interval while the participation rate dropped.   People not arithmetically challenged know that this spikes the growth of non-workers who demand an ever higher redistribution of wealth.  The 8dec12 WSJ reports “Welfare payments that redistribute income from workers to mostly nonworkers now exceed $1T a year.”

To tie in technology driven productivity growth, according to the Fed we are today producing a 48% higher real GDP ($13.8T) than we did in 1996 ($9.6T) with the same number of people employed (approximately 95M).  Readers who do numbers can also take a look at some more strategic remarks I have made on this irreversible trend (here and here and here).

So what's the deal with totally misleading headlines like ‘Labor Market Plods Forward’ when it is actually falling further and further behind the amount of jobs needed to keep the country afloat?  The long-term picture has no chance of getting better because none of the buffoons acknowledge the problem, let alone have a clue about a solution.  ‘Full employment’ as we knew it is already a fading memory.

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90 responses to “Ruminations – 9dec12”

  1. Russ Steele Avatar

    I am reading After America: Get Ready for Armageddon (Sep 2012) by Mark Steyn who among other important issues examines productivity growth while unemployment increases. Noting that those unemployed will never return to their lost jobs, and there are few options for the re-employment, other then increasing government employment. That is exactly what is happening, with the unemployment in that sector at 3.8 percent. By increasing regulations, the goverment will create the need for more inspectors and examiners to monitor the public, creating more government jobs, which is the course we are on in California with 700-1000 new regulations at ever legislative session.
    I am only half way through, but think that everyone should be reading After America, there are multiple examples of the challenges we are facing by a insightful observer. I am still waiting for the solutions.

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  2. George Rebane Avatar

    RussS 752am – Maybe Steyn will not include solutions in his book, but they have been stated here on RR multiple times – most recently here –
    http://rebaneruminations.typepad.com/rebanes_ruminations/2012/11/cuing-the-luddites-the-october-jobs-report.html
    Unfortunately, their likelihood of being implemented in a timely manner, or at all, is vanishingly small.

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  3. JesusBetterman Avatar

    Maybe the Fiskar doesn’t cut it, but remember, it is only one of two such cars: http://www.thecarconnection.com/car-compare-results/fisker_karma_2012-vs-tesla_model-s_2012
    Not all electric, subs, or engineers are created equal.

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  4. George Rebane Avatar

    JesusB 434pm – Doug, please bring us together on the relevance of the Karma being “only one of two such cars”.

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  5. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Yes Doug, the Tesla is so much better. How many do you own? Oh that’s right, you can’t afford one now or ever. But the stinking rich folk that you love to hate get to pick your pocket when they buy them. Tesla is only in business because they took nearly 1/2 a billion in your money and mine. Tesla is one big drag on the economy. But it’s big and shiny and follows your religion. Meanwhile in China, they are selling affordable electric cars without govt assistance. $5K – and no, you aren’t allowed to have one here. The safety NAZIs won’t allow it. Henry Ford is alive and well in China, but he’s no longer welcome here. Sad.

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  6. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Well Doug, it’s a bit more than 5K, but this Commie Car is legal and you can get a welfare check from the govt when you buy one. Doesn’t use any dead dinosaurs and will wow your lefty buddies.
    http://www.codaautomotive.com

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  7. Jesus Betterman Avatar

    “Remember Fisker, the battery-powered sportscar that was supposed to leap tall buildings in a single bound. Well, that is the latest of the California-based, government propped and promoted green manufacturing enterprises to go into its death spiral. Oh, make no mistake that the entire thing can be resurrected as a zombie company with some billions pumped into it, but right now it’s looking for a “partner” while wandering around with a ‘Buy Me, please’ sign pinned to its backside
    ~Main post above~
    Any idea what the first 16kbit computer on the moon shot cost taxpayers? And we never went there again, after Apollo. What a waste!
    You were making it sound like it was the only example in the class.

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  8. Joe Koyote Avatar
    Joe Koyote

    I don’t get the whole austerity thing. Would it be safe to say that from Rita the meter maid to the county sheriff on up through the Pentagon, that “government” in general is the largest employer in America? It is generally recognized that we have a consumer based economy that is supported by Americans buying goods made in China, most of which used to be made in America until the job creators uncreated jobs here and recreated them overseas to increase profit. So it seems to me that downsizing the country’s largest employer, government in general, would only further weaken the economy rather than improve it. Fewer people with jobs means less spending which means less profit.. more layoffs at the mall.. even less spending, more layoffs etc. etc. I think it was during the Reagan Administration that the federal govt. changed how it calculated unemployment by no longer counting those who were only employed part time but wanted full time work and those who had given up on getting a job altogether. The current unemployment rate would be almost double under the old calculations. Is there any historical support for austerity? Has it worked in the past to pull economies out of a rut? I think increasing taxes and government spending has worked in the past like the New Deal.

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  9. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Wrong again, Joe – the manufacturers moved the jobs out of this country so they could have something called a profit. If they stayed here, it was govt subsidy or fold the deck. The whole problem is that people like Joe think that you can make a good living by running up debt on a bank card and buying stuff. Working and producing is for losers. Of course the govt is a good employer. They can take money at gunpoint and what ever money they can’t take, they fabricate or borrow. 42 cents of every dollar is made up from thin air. How long does that go on?
    The electric car is 110 years old and it’s called ‘new technology’. The only thing new about the electric car is the way the American companies that make them operate financially. Long on religion and awfully short on performance.

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  10. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    How about those Commies? They let the American suckers dump $263 mil into A123 and now they buy it for $257 mil. Wow – that’s Yankee ingenuity for you! Keep it up, fools!

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  11. Joe Koyote Avatar
    Joe Koyote

    Wrong again Scott. The jobs left because they can pay workers in developing nations pennies on the dollar. The government doe not print money.. the Federal Reserve, a for profit privately owned corporation prints the money and then sells it to the government. The Federal Reserve board and chairman make the decisions not the government. So what really happens is when the banks make bad loans that go bad, the Fed prints up money to replace it, which is in effect a tax on the rest us. It is not the working stiff who lives by running up debt, it’s Wall Street. I wonder if our military personnel who are out there getting shot at to protect “America’s interests” see themselves as leeches, like you seem to imply about government employees since they don’t work and produce. What do insurance companies and banks produce? What about accountants or police? Do teachers produce anything? What about fireman? If I was a fireman, since I don’t work or produce anything and work for a governmental agency, I would have let your house burn down. Gov. Christy from New Jersey was asked in an interview the other day if he thought the free market could solve the disaster problems his state faced. His answer was an emphatic No! He said that we needed government to handle the problems that were too big for us to handle on our own.

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  12. George Rebane Avatar

    Recommend that we are careful not to circle the ‘all or nothing form of government’ barn again. That’s been a waste of time on these and other pages.
    Yes, the federal government does print money through the Fed which is the central bank of the US. When govt wants more new dollars, it trades the Fed debt and tells it to buy other govt subsidized securities for brand new bills out of nowhere.
    The New Deal was a disaster. It continued and deepened the problem inherited from the Hoover years, FDR’s SecTreas even testified to Congress on the utter failure of the New Deal in 1939. WW2 created the market conditions for the US to thrive, and Truman was smart enough to turn off the New Deal after the country plunged into a new recession in 1946. None of this is new and Bernanke is a self-professed student of the era. That’s why he’s in a squeeze right not trying not to repeat the Fed’s depression mistakes.
    Even the Europeans now know that federal governments mainly redistribute wealth created by their private sectors while providing extremely inefficient services save in operating their militaries for national security. Every spendthrift country that has attempted to tax itself out of economic problems has embarked on the same road to ruin and/or revolution.

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  13. Ryan Mount Avatar

    Joe-
    Read this:
    http://www.amazon.com/Historical-Capitalism-Immanuel-Wallerstein/dp/0860917614/
    And report back. It’s a book written by a an admitted and esteemed leftist about how modern capitalism works. (he’s right, BTW) In a nutshell, profits follow labor costs. (any business owner will tell us that). Control labor costs, you control your profits. It’s not rocket science. Any Burger King manager will tell us that…keep that damn labor cost down under 15%/hour, regional managers will bark at their restaurants.
    The trick is, in a globalist culture, it’s easy to move labor to lower cost manufacturing centers. So Scott is right about what he says above: Companies move commodity labor (see Wallerstein book) to periphery countries that can cut costs to increase profits. Chomsky calls is profit over people. And you know what? He’s right. But so what? What’s the alternative and how do we make it that the American worker gets to keep his job without driving inflation up and creating shortages?
    Answer that last question genuinely, and you will be more popular than either John Lennon or Jesus Christ.

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  14. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Joe – I have always followed the Constitution. You should try reading it sometime. Of course the fed govt has it’s role. It’s spelled out in the Constitution. Congress is to print and regulate the money. They dumped it on a committee they called the Fed. It’s not a private company. It’s a political animal from start to finish. Who runs it? How did he get his job? National defence is one of the few activities the US govt is mandated to provide. Your all or nothing is typical of the fools that can’t mount a cogent argument. Building ee-lectric cars is too much for private industry? The Chinese are doing it. The auto industry in this country early on thrived despite the govt. Of course the workers over seas will work for pennies. And they will work for whatever company pays them those pennies. How are American companies with factories located in the US supposed to compete against those other companies? On top of that they have the unions heaping more crap on them. Then the govt comes along with even more rules and taxes that put them at a disadvantage. How about we pass laws telling you what store you can go to and what prices you’ll pay for what you are told to buy? Are down with that home boy? I didn’t think so. We have free markets or we don’t.

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  15. Ryan Mount Avatar

    What did Mikey rightly say a day or two ago, paraphrasing someone else. Something like make Detroit a free-tax zone and it will be Hong Kong in 10 years?
    What’s wrong with that? We Americans are experimenters; crazy-ass cranks who had crazy ideas like going to the moon and building cities in the desert. We’d kick the apple cart over just to see which ways the apples would go. What the hell happened?
    With regards to Detroit, why not give that mighty Wurlitzer a drive into the night and see if it’s playing in the morning? What do we have to lose?
    Where the hell is Jack Kemp when we really need him? Oh, he’s dead. Damn it.

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  16. Gregory Avatar

    Free markets handle storms pretty well. Folks who build nice homes on sand bars or next to a lovely river lose their shirt when the inevitable storm wipes it out. Folks who didn’t build in flood plains generally do better than those who do.
    It takes a government to bail large numbers of people out after the fact. The free market isn’t about money for nothing.

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  17. Jesus Betterman Avatar

    Free markets plus corporations as people do NOT help free enterprise innovate at all. In fact, the evidence is to the contrary:
    http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2012/12/how_corruption_is_strangling_us_innovation.html

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  18. Jesus Betterman Avatar

    Scott Obermuller | 09 December 2012 at 09:27 PM
    Sez:
    “Building ee-lectric cars is too much for private industry? The Chinese are doing it.”
    Is that so? With no government help? I beg to differ.
    “China’s State Council has released plans to introduce subsidies to customers and manufacturers of electric vehicles (EV’s) in an attempt to encourage the numbers produced and sold. Even though only 8,159 EV’s have been sold in China, the government is adamant that it will encourage production and sales to increase, in order to achieve its massive target of 5 million EV’s by 2020. The aim is to reduce the country’s dependence on oil imports, and reduce its carbon emissions.
    The government announced a $4.19 billion subsidy program in May which will cover electric cars, plug-in hybrids, normal hybrid cars, and vehicles with energy saving engines.
    The Chinese government intends to reduce the average fuel consumption of all vehicles to 6.9 litres per 100km by 2015, and 5 litres per 100km in 2020. The energy efficient, hybrid, and electric vehicles will have an average fuel consumption of 5.9 litres pero 100km in 2015, and then 4.5 litres per 100km in 2020.
    China is the world’s largest car market, however according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sales have recently fallen due to increasing oil prices.”
    http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Targets-5-Million-Electric-Vehicles-by-2020.html

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  19. TheMikeyMcD Avatar
    TheMikeyMcD

    MSFT and India education centers….
    http://india.nydailynews.com/business/f8ad37f524b0b7a79db05d8fdb874f0c/microsoft-innovation-centers-to-impact-500000-indian-students
    Microsoft Corporation (India) Pvt. Ltd. has launched the first of a planned 100 Microsoft Innovation Centers (MICs) that will impact the technology expertise of some 500,000 students.

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  20. Bill Tozer Avatar
    Bill Tozer

    I will jump in here and comment on Dr. Rebane’s thoughts rather than slam the Fed and those electric go-carts that will save the economy and save the world and save us from ourselves and save them aliens out in the farthest reaches of our solar system.
    Two points: First, you have to have pocket money to buy solar panels or electric go carts. Most people have extra pocket money from having a job or two.
    Second point: we should look very closely at our immigration policy as Dr. Rebane has pointed out. It is better to have educated skilled immigrants paying into our Social Security and your Medicare than someone with a 3rd grade education struggling to get by in the Land of Opportunity.
    Not to say the uneducated unskilled immigrants are morally deficient or bad folks. Not at all. But money talks and bull pucky walks. Some call that profiling, elitist, and racist. So be it. I would rather have a boat load of high earning immigrants paying for the hayride than those cleaning up the horse stall. Do the math as Clinton/Obama would say.

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  21. Jesus Betterman Avatar

    So import smart, export dumb, you have any idea how easy a sell to the Tea Party faithful this will be, given how many of them fall into the latter category? Some would say this is an Agenda 21 to beat anything the Sierra Club ever dreamed of.

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  22. Paul Emery Avatar

    Gregory
    Any speculation on what will happen to property values in coastal areas when insurance companies start adjusting their rates and availability due to climate change and rising sea levels? The acknowledgement is beginning to happen.
    “Insurance companies have no doubts about global warming”
    http://www.marketplace.org/topics/business/cancun-climate-10/insurance-companies-have-no-doubts-about-global-warming

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  23. George Rebane Avatar

    As pointed out here before, insurance companies have every reason to back any and all kinds of factors pointing to the possibility of increasing future liabilities – real and imagined – that will allow them to make a case for increasing premiums, thereby increasing profits and maintaining reserves. They would not be your best source for corroborating either climate change or AGW.
    (Don’t know where climate change and insurance considerations entered into this comment stream under a post that covered electric car fiascoes and systemic unemployment. Probably a better place for ongoing climate change related discussions is Russ Steele’s ‘The Next Grand Minimum’
    http://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/)

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  24. themikeymcd Avatar
    themikeymcd

    Paul, with all due respect your citation of insurance companies shows extreme ignorance regarding the over-regulated insurance industry.
    At least every year would-be insurance providers must present rate schedules for approval by each state’s Department of Insurance.
    As George pointed out (9:54am), insurance companies will use every means necessary to increase rates. Even bunk science.

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  25. Paul Emery Avatar

    My question was and remains is what will happen to property values when insurance companies accept global warming as a liability. The connection to this post is in response to Gregory’s free market stance.
    09 December 2012 at 10:14 PM

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  26. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Sorry Doug – there ARE Chinese firms building electric cars without govt subsidies. You do not NEED a govt subsidy to build an electric car. Private citizens do it all the time on their own. Of course there are plenty of well-heeled Obama bootlickers that will feed at the public trough. The Santa Rosa Electric Car company was chugging along fine until the nit wits in Sacto decided the state needed to involve itself in the electric car industry. That was the first state mandate for a fixed percentage of cars sold in Kalifornia to be electric. Anyone considering backing for the Santa Rosa company correctly assumed that the big 3 plus the Japanese would sell the stupid things at cost or even a loss and the small independent company would be finished. And that’s exactly what happened. Their funds dried up and they went poof. And the electric car mandate was then found to be impossible to meet by even the lightest of thinkers and the whole thing went into the toilet. So, a nice pioneering electric car company was ‘thanked’ by the govt for their efforts by being put out of business. The govt backed American electric car companies have devoured billions of tax payer dollars and all they have to show for it is bankruptcy or toy cars for the wealthy elite. At least F. Porsche came up with an affordable durable car when pressed by the govt. And Henry gave the world a ‘peoples’ car and high wages for unskilled labor without the govt. The govt needs to get out of the way and stop skewing the markets and we can prosper. I’m certainly not holding my breath.

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  27. Paul Emery Avatar

    Mikey
    If indeed insurance companies are driven by bunk science wouldn’t you think that at lease some would recognize that and offer lower rates based on their confidence that climate change, global warming and rising sea levels are false assumptions. Is this not the way the free market adjusts to false information?

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  28. Gregory Avatar

    Paul, life is complicated enough without adding speculative hypotheticals into the mix. Hell, some people think the world will be coming to an end a week from Friday.
    http://news.yahoo.com/mayan-apocalypse-2012–how-predictions-came-from-new-age-magic-mushroom-trip-130852054.html
    You wrote, “Any speculation on what will happen to property values in coastal areas when insurance companies start adjusting their rates and availability due to climate change and rising sea levels?”.
    If they start adjusting rates due to any cause, real or imagined, you adapt. If property values plunge and you think the reasons are BS, you buy at bargain prices. If the reasons are good, you sell and snicker at the rube who was buying.
    “If indeed insurance companies are driven by bunk science wouldn’t you think that at lease some would recognize that and offer lower rates based on their confidence that climate change, global warming and rising sea levels are false assumptions”. I doubt any actually care what the reasons for the losses are; they’re always adjusting premiums and terms up and down with losses (no one wants to lose money on the deals) and profits (profits are good but if you’re making too much money you can lose share to competitors).
    Really, Paul. There is no significant ocean rise due to CO2 to date. Period.

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  29. Russ Steele Avatar

    Paul,
    I have posted the latest information on sea level rise at ‘The Next Grand Minimum’ http://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/
    The sea level rise that started after the last ice age is slowing down, and the ice fields in Greenland and Antarctica have started to build up.
    Look forward to discussing the issue with you and other at the Next Grand Minimum.

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  30. Todd Juvinall Avatar

    I find Pau;E’s concerns for the 1% owning houses on the oceans very confusing. If the insurance companies raise rates on the 1% folks at the beach house, who gives a rat’s ass? They can afford the premiums right PaulE? So, if the world buys in to the hoax of global warming who will it really affect? The little people and the middle class. So I guess from now on we should be asking the question of the PaulE’s (and eco nut libs) of the world, :why do you want to punish the poor”? What did they do to deserve your wrath?

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  31. Jesus Betterman Avatar

    Tesla alone has produced one quarter of the total Chinese output, except Tesla vehicles are strictly a luxury item.
    “Last week Tesla Motors released their third quarter earnings. While the quarter didn’t live up to initial expectations. It did show that Tesla is moving in the right direction. The most important numbers of the quarter is how many Model S sedans Tesla has shipped to customers, and how many Model S reservations were gained in the quarter. The graph above shows there were 68 roadsters shipped in Q3 with leaves roughly 82 of the 2500 produced left to be sold. Model S shipments are at 253 for the quarter. Tesla originally planned to produce 500 sedans but had supplier issues which delayed production growth. They have stated all of these issues have been worked out and they should be able to deliver 2500-3000 Model S vehicles in Q4, and over 20,000 in 2013.”
    So Santa Rosa’s funding dried up? On maybes, and what ifs? When the gov is pushing electrics and charging stations? Sounds like the product didn’t have much to go on in the first place.

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  32. Paul Emery Avatar

    Todd
    You greatly underestimate property that may be affected by rising rates due to insurance companies recognizing perceived impacts of global warming. Catch up Todd. It’s 2012
    “The worldwide insurance industry is huge, three-times bigger than the oil industry. And right now these companies are running scared. Some are threatening to cancel coverage for homeowners within 200 miles of the coast, where destructive hurricanes are on the increase, and in drying areas of the West, where wildfires have wreaked havoc in recent years.
    Marsh & McLennan (MMC), one of the world’s largest insurance brokers, called climate change “one of the most significant emerging risks facing the world today,” while the insurance giant AIG has established an Office of Environment and Climate Change to review and assess the risks to insurers in the years ahead.”
    Read more: http://www.care2.com/causes/what-insurance-companies-already-know-about-climate-change.html#ixzz2Egfmt3GW

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  33. George Rebane Avatar

    PaulE 135pm – I think here you have answered your own 1213pm question. The insurance market is not a free market, but very much government controlled. The only reason that any insurance company would consider cancelling policies in a high liability area is if it could not charge the appropriate probabilistically determined rates to assure them a profit. If the danger were as claimed and the market were free, then rates would instantly go up as required. There would never be any of this posturing and threats to withdraw coverage which any grown-up knows is being put on for the state agencies that regulate the insurance companies. ‘We’re from the government, and we’re here to help.’

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  34. Jesus Betterman Avatar

    If the government is not really regulating anything, and is merely a pawn of the insurance companies, we have one more example of corporate personhood at its worst. If the government does own and control the insurance companies, why does it do this? Why would anyone bother to be in the business of insurance, if the government ran everything?

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  35. Gregory Avatar

    Paul, if you actually click through to the original sources it’s a lot less than “the sky is falling! the sky is falling!”. Instead we have “”Businesses – if they haven’t already – must begin to account for it in their strategic and operation planning.”. In short, between yawns, think about what you might do in the future if anything real happens on the warming front.
    The problem you have is you think you’ve identified all these sources that all point to the same problem independently, but in fact they’re all just saluting the same flag after it’s been run up the IPCC flagpole. Maybe 20 or 30 activist scientists, tops, who have been driving the IPCC process, excluding viewpoints that were, umm… inconvenient.
    Now, had they been correct, and over the last two decades the science had actually begun to converge on real evidence of warming, we’d be thanking the IPCC process for saving humanity while running roughshod over the scientific method. That isn’t the case. We’re still left with the 2 -5 degree C estimates for temp increases for a doubling of CO2 by the IPCCish computer modelers, as opposed to numbers derived from Earth measurements that have it as low as a half degree for a doubling.

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  36. George Rebane Avatar

    JesusB 237pm – Why indeed Doug? For those who haven’t heard about Obamacare, there is a little eye-opener for why and what government wants to do with insurance companies.
    The ‘whys’ for all these government insurgencies, insertions, and transgressions is still the simple answer of creeping socialism advancing to a more visible and quicker pace in our land. And this is all to the ever growing throngs of naifs and the simple minded who have been carefully taught in our public schools. (Also see my 10nov12 post.)

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  37. Paul Emery Avatar

    George
    This is a pretty bizarre response that to be believable must be worldwide since the trends from the insurance agencies are pretty universal.
    ” threats to withdraw coverage which any grown-up knows is being put on for the state agencies that regulate the insurance companies.”
    10 December 2012 at 02:01 PM
    Can you show me any evidence of this or is this one of your theories ?
    Gregory, I can provide more linkage if you like. The 20 or 30 scientists bit is pretty silly.

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  38. George Rebane Avatar

    PaulE 308pm – I think the name of the theory is ‘capitalism gaming the system’ – widely practiced for centuries, but not always successfully. I wish it were mine.
    The real question is the obverse, can you show any evidence or even make a reasonable case for this not happening, especially in regulated industries?

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  39. Gregory Avatar

    “The 20 or 30 scientists bit is pretty silly.”
    That was from an IPCC official when asked how many of the IPCC scientists were actually doing the hard science.

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  40. Paul Emery Avatar

    Gregory
    Who? When?

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  41. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    PaulE is not keeping up with the science. Come on PaulE, start thinking for yourself.

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  42. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Doug – you’ve got to be kidding. Tesla is a money hole. It hasn’t turned a profit yet and won’t ever at the rate it’s going. They plan to sell 20K units in 2013. That hasn’t happened yet, so really they have hardly sold anything. The Santa Rosa Car Company sent folks to Sac to complain about what would happen to them if the govt mandated the big car companies sell electric cars in Kalifornia. Not a matter of what ifs. They correctly pointed out what would happen to their funding if the mandate was pushed through without giving some tax dollars to the SRCC. Their prospective backers all told them it was over and the Cal govt killed the SRCC. It’s not a matter of speculation. Just another small enterprising business done in by the govt. Let us know when you get your own Tesla Doug.

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  43. Paul Emery Avatar

    Todd
    Are you saying that only 1% of properties will be effected by insurance costs attributed to global warming? Where did you get that information or did yu make it up?

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  44. Russ Steele Avatar

    Paul@01:35PM you wrote “ where destructive hurricanes are on the increase, and in drying areas of the West, where wildfires have wreaked havoc in recent years.”
    Where did you get your data? It is crap! Here are some facts:
    • Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) – 1971 to Present is declining.
    • Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency- 1971 to Present is declining.
    • US Strong to Violent Tornadoes (EF3-EF5*) – 1950 to Present declining.
    • Contiguous US – Extreme One-Day Precipitation Events 1901 – 2009 is increasing.
    • According to the fire statistics, the number of fires and the acres burned has declining since 2006, that is for the last six years for the math challenged.
    Use your Internet? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/08/introducing-the-new-wuwt-extreme-weather-reference-page/

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  45. Gregory Avatar

    “Are you saying that only 1% of properties will be effected by insurance costs attributed to global warming?”
    I don’t speak for Todd, but I’m saying no properties will be affected by insurance costs attributable to anthropomorphic global warming. A simple fact as even the tiny bit of warming that is currently attributed to us is very small compared to yearly natural variations and if you don’t buy into the theorized very large positive feedbacks, there’s just no path to dangerous, destructive warming.
    BTW Paul, I’ll keep my eye out for that citation, but before I give it to you I’ll want you to go out on a limb and say how many scientists you expect are doing the basic science in the IPCC process. Do you think I am off by a factor of 2? 5? 10? 100?

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  46. JesusBetterman Avatar

    If that SRCC was being run by Doug Keachie, you be sniggering at what a poor business person he was, couldn’t get and keep his cash flow going quickly enough. Wassa matter, were you an investor?

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  47. Paul Emery Avatar

    It’s a summary from Marsh & McLennan (MMC), one of the world’s largest insurance brokers.
    http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0315-04.htm

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  48. Paul Emery Avatar

    Gregory
    I am not engaging in a discussion on the issue of global warming yes or no. What’s relevant to my discussion is the economic and political reactions to the issue. Actions from the insurance companies is just beginning. Popular opinion is shifting rapidly to accept it as fact and political decisions will reflect popular opinion.

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  49. George Rebane Avatar

    PaulE 731pm – Do you argue the case that the scientific (or factual?) bases of issues should go by the board once a strong emotional flow of public and political reactions to those issues begin?

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