Rebane's Ruminations
December 2012
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George Rebane

[This is the transcript of my regular KVMR commentary broadcast on 7 December 2012.]

Something world-shaking happened in Phnom Penh a couple of weeks ago, and Americans didn’t have a clue because our media either did not understand the event, or were still in their ‘protect Obama’ mode of operation.  But first let’s go back and get some background.

Some may recall that the most important geo-strategic policy of Obama’s second term was supposed to be the ‘Asia Pivot’ – this is where we refocus our foreign policy and international trade from Europe and the middle east to the Pacific rim countries that comprise half of the world’s population.  This is the part of the world that has avoided the recession debacle of the developed west now packed with countries teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.   And this is the part of the world where America’s biggest creditor and major trading partner lives.

These countries want to super-charge their already high economic growth rates by forming what would be the world’s biggest trading alliance.  That sounded good to us, and Team Obama put together something called the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP which would structure that alliance and establish the US in its traditional position of leadership in such associations.

To explain what was at stake, influential leftwing blogs like salon.com effused – “This agreement is a core part of the ‘Asia pivot’ that has occupied the activities of think tanks and policymakers in Washington but remained hidden by the tinsel and confetti of the election. But more than any other policy, the trends the TPP represents could restructure American foreign relations, and potentially the economy itself.”

So President Obama, fresh from winning a second term, climbed on AF-1 and flew to Phnom Penh, site of the 16 nation trade summit that included China, Japan, India, and Australia.  He was going to present his Trans-Pacific Partnership to the other attending world leaders, take his well-deserved bows, and return home with the major component of our Asia Pivot in the bag.


But what really happened is that everyone smiled, toasted each other at the ceremonies, and posed nicely for the photo ops.  And then they told President Obama not only what he could do with a tightly rolled up version of his Trans-Pacific Partnership, but also that the US would not even be included in the new alliance to be called, instead, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

The reason for this cataclysmic rejection is that the 3 billion people of the new alliance view our 300 million as a nation of has beens.  The last four years have demonstrated that we no longer can handle our affairs, and we can’t even convince the world that we know what our affairs should be.  Consider the following –

•    We spend beyond our means, and borrow amounts that we have no way of paying back.
•    We have been major importers, but are now becoming less relevant as fast growing countries are rapidly diminishing our share of world trade.
•    We used to provide capital for investment and growth worldwide, now we are consumers of capital into a directionless economy.
•    Our primacy as technology innovators and a country of entrepreneurs has essentially vanished due to grossly destructive policies like Obamacare which have materially stifled the growth of small businesses.
•    And finally, led by East Asia, the dollar is rapidly being replaced by China’s renminbi in trade and as a new reserve currency.

So there you have it dear listener.  An epochal event that went by unnoticed, but will be recounted in future years around American hearths where conversations take place about what happened to our once rich and vibrant country.  Long story short, in Phnom Penh they symbolically zipped up our President in a body bag and sent him home to a hushed ride from Andrews AFB to the White House.  Instead of a ceremony and news conference that celebrated our new geo-strategic orientation, we were handed what the Asia Times called the ‘360 degree Asia Pivot’. 

Whatever it takes to maintain the myth of competence, such is the ongoing work product of this administration – not understanding what is going on, arriving at important events being blindsided while claiming to lead from behind, forging policies that are bound to the isolationist and unrealistic goals of our labor unions, while having no clue about the people and processes which once made America the envy of the world.

My name is Rebane, and I expand on this and related themes on georgerebane.com where the linked transcript of this commentary is posted, and where such issues are debated extensively.  However these views are not necessarily shared by KVMR.  Thank you for listening.

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10 responses to “The 360 degree Asia Pivot”

  1. JesusBetterman Avatar

    Taught today, math classes no less (sorry Greg) and I was inspired to ask if anyone knew the significance of December 7.
    None of these 7 graders did. None. I bring it up as it looks like the situation described above may be our economic Pearl Harbor.

    Like

  2. Russ Steele Avatar

    As the China vs US trade war heats up, Apple has decided it is time to reduce it’s dependence on doing business in China. Apple recently announced they will soon be opening factories in the US. That may be signaling the direction that American businesses are going to take to reduce their business exposure in China. Coming home to the US. California may benefit as Apple had a manufacturing plant in Elk Grove, which could be reactivated. However, given the increasing tax structure in the state, it would be more likely that Apple will use the new campus in Austin, Texas, or some other lower cost of business state.
    If the US and China decide to have the emerging trade war, much of that trade would have come through CA ports in Los Angles and Oakland, with some in Seattle. That could have an impact on CA’s economic recovery.
    With Apple making a move, who will be next?

    Like

  3. George Rebane Avatar

    But in the larger scheme of things, we don’t want China to weaken its commercial and economic ties to the US. There is nothing like trade to keep the peace between countries. As someone said long ago – if goods don’t cross borders, armies will.

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  4. JesusBetterman Avatar

    That’s a “Like,” George.

    Like

  5. TheMikeyMcD Avatar
    TheMikeyMcD

    One of you best George.
    Like the has-been-30-somthing still trying to get free drinks for being a quarterback in high school…

    Like

  6. Bob Hobert Avatar
    Bob Hobert

    George, do you subscribe to D’Souza’s premise that Obama believes America is the last of the world’s evil colonial powers and thus his policies are deliberately designed to reduce American wealth and power?
    Looking at his ‘achievements’ so far certainly supports that premise IMHO. Obama is neither a socialist nor a Islamacist, but an anti-colonialist who is fighting the same anti-colonialist battle his father did in Kenya, according to D’Souza in The Roots of Obama’s Rage – a fascinating insight into our president.

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  7. George Rebane Avatar

    BobH 802am – Yes, but he has a greater reason to reduce America into compliant peerage on the world stage, and that entails his vision for a global order. Recall my long held assessment that he is the first President to view the American presidency as a stepping stone to a higher position.

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  8. Bob Hobert Avatar
    Bob Hobert

    Yes, there seem to be no boundaries to his self image and sense of righteous infallibility. I believe most Americans completely misunderstand him. D’Souza provides some very keen insight.

    Like

  9. Brad Croul Avatar
    Brad Croul

    The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, keyword-regional, (a China backed initiative) should clue the reader as to why the United States would not be included in that particular partnership.
    The RCEP and the TPP are two different (but similar) things. Therefor, I think the “cataclysmic rejection” characterization is overblown.
    “The notable absence of the United States should not signal alarm. The RCEP permits external countries to join later and does not prohibit members from acceding to other free-trade groupings, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement in which the United States is active.” –
    http://csis.org/publication/asean-and-partners-launch-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership
    As for the TPP, it predates the Obama administration. Some folks don’t seem very impressed with the shenanigans surrounding that proposed partnership,
    http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1299311–secrecy-the-standard-as-canada-enters-trans-pacific-partnership-talks-geist
    Sounds a bit NAFTAesque, eh?

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  10. George Rebane Avatar

    BradC 1231pm – good points, but the RCEP name was not presaged, nor was the organization according to what the administration claims to have known. Its regionalization was ordained unbeknownst to Obama, who probably would not have shown up with his TPP agreement in hand had he known the real reason for the meeting. Obama expected to come home with the first stake in the ground for his ‘Asian Pivot’.

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