Rebane's Ruminations
October 2012
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George Rebane

The post ‘Prognositcators – An invitation to the dance’ introduced a methodology for scoring quantitative predictions so that our prognosticators may compete on record, and donate their losings to the 501c3 ‘charity’ of the winner’s choice.

ElectoralVotes2012
This is the second competition in which our sharp-minded readership is asked to predict the outcome of the electoral college vote (538 total votes, 270 to win).  This competition will be repeated weekly – every Monday – until the election, with the last one run on Monday 5 November.  Prognosticators are asked to submit their electoral college vote ranges for the candidates of their choosing.  If a single number of votes is submitted for any of the candidates, that will be taken as a ‘zero range’ or ‘spot on’ prediction and scored accordingly.  The cost of entry each time will be $20.

The entries must be submitted (by the Typepad date/time stamp) before Monday midnight PST.  This first competition will be closed tomorrow Tuesday midnight PST, since I just had this harebrained idea late on Monday night.  I will post the final entries at the closing of each competition, and winners and losers of each of these six competitions on 7 November 2012.

It will be interesting to see the weekly prognostications shift and narrow (or widen) as we go through this last month of debates and campaigning.  An added bit of titillation will accrue from someone like the victory of Mr Steven Frisch that impels me to send a check to one of his favorite progressive charities, and vice versa.

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8 responses to “Prediction Competition 2 – Electoral College Outcome”

  1. Walt Avatar

    Sorry for the off topic post Mr. R,, but this just can’t wait.
    Another solar maker (Abound Solar)is going boobs up.( like that’s a real surprise) But it’s what they said that’s the real story.
    Internal documentation and testimony from sources within Abound show that the company was selling a faulty, underperforming product, and may have mislead lenders at one point in order to keep itself afloat.
    “Our solar modules worked as long as you didn’t put them in the sun,” an internal source told The Daily Caller News Foundation.
    AAHHhhh yess…. Our tax dollars at work.

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  2. George Rebane Avatar

    Re Walt’s 1041am – I’m introducing a new word into our lexicon in today’s post that should be more and more useful, especially if we have four more years of obamunism..
    I hope that at least a few readers will give a nod to putting their hard earned dollars up for a charity, and participating in the proposed electoral college result competition – so far, crickets.

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  3. Steven Frisch Avatar

    Let me make sure I understand the rules—each weekly competition is a separate competition, and is scored against the electoral vote count? Do I have that right? I could enter each week and win for each week versus the others who participated that week?
    I have a couple of questions about counting electoral votes:
    are we using the electoral college votes as predicted by news organizations (and if so which ones)?
    are we waiting for the electoral college to actually meet and vote in January?
    what do we do with states that can split electoral college votes (Maine and Nebraska)?

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  4. Steven Frisch Avatar

    By the way, it looks to me that the electoral college map that you have posted is probably from about 1980 (not that I actually expect anyone to use it to do their calculations).
    I suggest 270towin.com for a good interactive map that gives you the ability to do the splits in Nebraska and Maine if you want to.

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  5. George Rebane Avatar

    SteveF 143pm – good questions Steve. Yes, each competition stands on its own, and you could feasibly win any number of them. We’ll use the reported electoral vote tally as reported on 7 November. I don’t recall that there has been any conflict between the media in their reported numbers. But your question brings up the issue of states not getting their electoral college numbers reported – recall Florida’s hanging chads – within 24 hours. I suggest in that case we score the predictions after the earliest ‘national agreement’ on the electoral votes. I think that such an event will be in wide agreement across the land. Thoughts?

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  6. George Rebane Avatar

    SteveF 148pm – thanks Steve; I just tried to find an electoral map to convey the image of how the votes divide. Found the new one for 2012 on Wikipedia.
    Here’s another electoral map site you can come up with your own numbers.
    http://graphics.wsj.com/MAPMAKER/#

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  7. George Rebane Avatar

    My entry for Prediction Competition 2 (hence PC2) is –
    Romney (258-276)
    Obama (262-280)

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  8. Steven Frisch Avatar

    Ok I am in
    Obama (289-304)
    Romney (234-249)
    Here is my actual single number best bet right now (with the understanding that this does not invalidate the above)
    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=DyG

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