Rebane's Ruminations
August 2012
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Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other. – John Adams

George Rebane

So where’s all the wildlife? asks a visitor to a local pond and hiking trail here in Nevada County.  Our cartoonist RL ‘Bob’ Crabb drew this little funny filched from the 18aug12 issue of The Union.  And true to Bob’s perspective on the human comedy, the cartoon’s message can be twofold.  First, the guy is a (probably conservative) doofus who expects the place to be still dripping with critters after everyone has started using it as a recreation area – what would you expect?  And then he could be an ecologically sensitive individual expressing his disappointment on the transformation of the formerly uninhabited and wild area before all the humans showed up.

Crabb120818
We expect the latter constituency to start demonstrating any day now for the restoration of Hirschman’s Pond to its pre-peopled pristine position as a natural habitat in perfect balance.  No doubt this could be accomplished by a federal grant or two in addition to some more rangers or sheriffs deputies to enforce the ‘Nature Preserve, Entry Forbidden’.  Actually this little nascent swamp was of little use to anyone but mosquitoes before the county (with aid from Ohio) made it accessible to local residents.  And what someone should teach the ecologically sensitive is that nature has many points of balance, none of them lasting too long before the critters pick a new point to balance on.  So suffer the suffering critters to leave the Pond, and enjoy those that remain in the new balance of nature that now includes you.


Obama’s hopeful message on the economy continues to depend on the national horde of the ignorant.  The employment rate includes in the denominator the number of people who still have a hope of finding a job.  As those give up, employment rate goes up, and unemployment rate goes down.  Here is some more data on that.

Actually Obama is a Zero.  So argues Jack Wheeler (here), President Reagan’s cold war strategist.  Wheeler succinctly summarizes –

The O-man, Barack Hussein Obama, is an eloquently tailored empty suit.  No résumé, no accomplishments, no experience, no original ideas, no understanding of how the economy works, no understanding of how the world works, no balls, nothing but abstract empty rhetoric devoid of real substance.

He has no real identity.  He is half-white, which he rejects.  The rest of him is mostly Arab, which he hides but is disclosed by his non-African Arabic surname and his Arabic first and middle names as a way to triply proclaim his Arabic parentage to people in Kenya.  Only a small part of him is African Black from his Luo grandmother, which he pretends he is exclusively.

What he isn’t, not a genetic drop of, is “African-American,” the descendant of enslaved Africans brought to America chained in slave ships.  He hasn’t a single ancestor who was a slave.  Instead, his Arab ancestors were slave owners.  Slave-trading was the main Arab business in East Africa for centuries until the British ended it.

MunicipalDebt2012Municipal debt defaults have been covered up by no less than our vaunted Fed.  RR readers have known for some years now that these jurisdictions were rushing headlong into a fiscal brick wall.  Remember those intrepid rating agencies – Moody’s and S&P – that didn’t see the subprime mess coming?  Well it turns out that they have also been underreporting municipal bond defaults before finally downrating them.  The New York Fed is blowing the whistle (here), and people are starting to get very concerned, led by no less than Warren Buffett who bailed out billions that Berkshire Hathaway had invested in credit default swaps that insured munis.  The problem of bankrupting cities and towns is a big one as the nearby graphic shows – many private investors have always looked to munis as a secure well paying investment for their retirement portfolios.  The race to the bottom will now accelerate as borrowing costs go sky high for jurisdictions already strapped by public employee pension driven unfunded liabilities.

We’ll end on a higher note and report on the advent of the MOOCs (Massively Open Online Courses) which are the new format for all kinds of remote and online learning.  My longtime friend Larry Press  has a report on these which are causing a stir among the academics in higher education.  Dr Press, CalState professor of information systems, is an internationally recognized expert on the internet and education technologies.

We all use internet search engines.  Here is a useful MOOC that Google developed to teach people to become ‘power searchers’ on their search engine.  Enjoy.

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67 responses to “Ruminations – 21aug12”

  1. TomKenworth Avatar

    Calling me ignorant of my supposed ignorance when Greg has taken a stand he cannot or will not back up is arrogance unbecoming of you, George.

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  2. George Rebane Avatar

    TomK 655pm – So that notion really is new to you.
    We are all ignorant in various areas. More than once I have been guilty of it myself, and remember the first time a high school teacher explained the matter to me.
    In this comment thread, you demonstrated your ignorance of the science(s) involved, the causal chain, and the analytics brought to bear on the issue of solar magnetics affecting earth’s temperatures. Those comments stand, as anyone familiar with the area can confirm. No “unbecoming arrogance” was necessary.

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  3. TomKenworth Avatar

    And you still cannot claim any further credence to Greg’s notion that:
    “And there now is some good evidence we’re on a path past that and down to a Dalton or Maunderish minimums.”
    ~ Gregory | 24 August 2012 at 10:54 AM~
    A year or so ago he was ominously noting the zero sunspot record, and crowing like a cock on a dunghill. Now that they are back, all he, and apparently George, has left is to falsely proclaim that I do not and have not believed in the notion that more cosmic rays inbound to earth via shifts in the sun’s magnetic activity affects the Earth’s cloud cover. I challenge either of you to find a statement on my part to that effect. Greg forgets that I did by “The Chilling Stars” and read it and decided it was plausible, but that, in and of itself, it did not knock out the possibility of anthropogenic warming occurring at the same time. I think this rankles him, not to mention my calling him out for faith based physics.

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  4. Russ Steele Avatar

    Tom,
    I suggested that Paul Emory view a shorter version of the video linked below and tell me where it is flawed and all I heard was was crickets chirping. Below is a link to a longer version that explains the relationship of CO2 to temperature in more detail. If you can find some flaws in this analysis please let me know, and I will send Warren Meyer your analysis. http://youtu.be/ctRvtxnNqU8
    Once you have grasp the limited impact that CO2 has, we can then discuss how little CO2 humans contribute to the total CO2 emissions on the planet. Once we understand the very small impact that human have, then we can start to understand how a 10% increase in cloud cover can have a much larger impact, bringing on significant cooling. Cosmic rays, reaching the earth due to a quiet sun maybe one of the mechanisms that create this cooling. One thing we know from recorded history, from the ice cores, and sediment cores a quiet sun produces a cooler earth. That is an undisputed fact. That cooling always followed a warm period and occurs on a cycle lasting about 200 to 210 years, with a 60 year PDO/AO cycle and volcano eruptions introducing some climate change noise. Greg is right, we are due for the next grand minimum. Are CO2 emissions delaying that minimum, not likely given the above video analysis.

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  5. Gregory Avatar

    “Greg is right, we are due for the next grand minimum.”
    That isn’t quite my understanding of the science, Russ. Being “due” isn’t the issue until we have verifiable models for the cycle timings, that there are indicators of a winding down to near zero for some solar magnetic processes by the middle of cycle 25, is.
    George, trying to teach Keach is always a waste of time, and I try to avoid it unless there are others reading that I think are worth talking past Doug to reach. Like I said, he’s been exposed to the information in the past and if he want’s to explore the issue I think Russ’ “Next” blog is more appropriate.
    Even now he’s doing his best to hold two mutually exclusive outcomes as true. Either the small unexplained (by the ‘great climate centres’) heat of the 20th century is due to positive feedbacks and we’re reaching a ‘tipping point’ XOR the heat was due to fewer clouds because of fewer ionizing galactic cosmic rays reaching the earth. The catastrophic results go away with the decrease of the feedback terms.

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  6. TomKenworth Avatar

    One place predicting a very cold winter for us: http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=33&topicid=1708&Itemid=179
    Still researching, what is the 200 – 210 year cycle called? If it is that distinctive, surely it has a name?
    “Being “due” isn’t the issue until we have verifiable models for the cycle timings, that there are indicators of a winding down to near zero for some solar magnetic processes by the middle of cycle 25, is.”
    ~ Gregory | 24 August 2012 at 10:30 PM~
    And we are just getting towards the middle of cycle 24. Again, which indicators are you referring to?

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  7. Gregory Avatar

    Ruminators may be interested to know I provided sockpuppet TomKenworth’s fister, Doug Keachie, with just the link he’s demanding (again) on Nov 4, 2011, on this blog. Rereading the thread, there’s no indication I could see that he bothered reading the linked article, or understanding it, even though it was a treatment of serious astrophysical research from NASA intended for a general audience.
    Of course, there are a number of lines of evidence for it, but why feed him more when the evidence is that he’ll ignore it?

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  8. TomKenworth Avatar

    Ruminators may be interested to know that HUW Gregory Goodknight’s, nugget (unlinked) is over one year old, and Mr. Penn doesn’t update his pages to reflect the increased sunspot activity occurring since he was quoted. Counting sun nuggets, er, spots, is an interesting pastime. Maybe I’ll get the filters for the old Meade and give it a whirl.
    http://www.spaceweather.com

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  9. TomKenworth Avatar

    Some other means of predicting sunspots are reviewed here:
    http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

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  10. Gregory Avatar

    Perhaps in Doug Keachie’s universe, over one year means almost 10 months, but in mine, 4 Nov 2011 is not over one year from now.
    Keach, you didn’t read it when posted last November, and you were in the same infantile loop demanding to be fed information to stop the tantrum. I’m sure you can find it if you want it; here’s a hint: search for “cycle 25”.

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  11. Gregory Avatar

    Why didn’t Keach read and comment on the National Geographic news link last November, which detailed three different papers showing the sun appeared to be heading into a “Hibernation”?
    “I do like pretty pictures, Greg, but a lot has happened since the article went to bed, so let’s both keep watching the skies.”
    Nothing had happened to falsify the research being reported, and the article was but five months old at the time. It’s still valid. Keachie was focused on the bright shiny object whose cycle 24 peak was barely starting. Perhaps he was rooting for the sun to all of a sudden become as energetic as the peak cycles that came just before it.
    From a purely political side, it’s fortunate the Sun is on a downward slope now as another cycle or two of record solar magnetic activity and warming could have given cover to those wishing to restructure the world’s economy around carbon trading.

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  12. TomKenworth Avatar

    LW Gregory GoodNugget changed his “less than one year” tune in a bloody hurry when he realized that he post the June 2011 article in November. All I ask for was the data and logic that led Greg to believe that we were headed for a Maunder Minimum. And coincidently, I noticed he glossed over the fact that the same article even mentioned the possibility that CO2 disturbances could be going on at the same time. More nuggets from Greg, and his favored source for them, which someday a good therapist might fix. He is rather obsessed with them, and I guess the farther up the wazul, the better.

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  13. Gregory Avatar

    ?? I changed nothing, Keach.
    By the way, the above is Keachie’s way of admitting that, yes, I had provided him what he was asking for nine months ago and he ignored it.
    You ignored the astrophysical research last November because it was a few months old and you were excited about cycle 24 showing life, and your claim the thread where I’d provided the information you wanted was over a year old was patently false.
    Cycle 24 is less energetic than even the Hathaway projections of last year, would need about another 1/3 of the smoothed average to meet it:
    http://www.solarham.net/averages.htm
    Keach, you are just throwing factoids, found by aimless googling, into the fan. As usual.

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  14. TomKenworth Avatar

    “Perhaps in Doug Keachie’s universe, over one year means almost 10 months, but in mine, 4 Nov 2011 is not over one year from now.”
    Greg posted the reference to the article, then already 6 months old. I assumed Greg was referencing the science, not his time of posting about the science. But I could be wrong, in Greg’s Funnyverse.
    “?? I changed nothing, Keach.”
    1950’s duck and cover lessons learned well…

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  15. THEMIKEYMCD Avatar

    Jurassic Park … “Nature will find a way – Nature always finds a way.”

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  16. Gregory Avatar

    “Greg posted the reference to the article, then already 6 months old”
    June 14 to Nov 4 is less than 5 months, Keach (try counting it on your fingers), and the scientific papers it had reported (yes, I’d read those, too) don’t have a shelf life.
    You’re batting .000, especially since you’ve not actually quoted anything of value, just flinging mud. As usual.

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  17. Gregory Avatar

    “Calling me ignorant of my supposed ignorance when Greg has taken a stand he cannot or will not back up is arrogance unbecoming of you, George.” 24 August 2012 at 06:55 PM
    Correction, Keach. That should read “when Greg has taken a stand that he had already backed up.”
    And you’ve since found it.
    Keach, face it. You’ve never taken a science class meant for a science major and you just don’t have the intellectual capital to make sense of a complicated subject like the climate. I think it was Heinlein who wrote “any technology sufficiently advanced is indistinguishable from magic”. Without any real background in science, it doesn’t have to be very advanced at all to be a jumble in the mind of the average joe, let alone a Doug Keachie.

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