Rebane's Ruminations
May 2012
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George Rebane

President Obama’s background and biography is throwing people for another loop – at least those with their heads still exposed to the sun.  Who knows where the man was actually born?  Who knows what actually happened in South Chicago?  All we know is that the Washington establishment (both parties) and the lamestream don’t want to go there, no matter what is discovered under newly turned over rocks. 

And Obama’s ‘autobiographies’ will now have to be re-cataloged under fiction.  The disparities from truth are becoming so easy to document that a high school sophomore could do it for her term paper, if only her teacher would countenance such research.  PJMedia, Breitbart, and Drudge, along with some local blogs, have been having a field day on the new revelations about the background of our fearless leader.

Everyone with an ability to buy popcorn at a movie should now understand what a private equity firm like Bain does and did when Romney was there.  Especially revealing is the Left’s celebrated cause of telling the country that Romney and company bankrupted GST Steel and destroyed 750 secure long-lasting jobs; worse, sent them overseas to cheap steel makers.  (‘Bain Capitalism 101’)  Ol’ Joe can say it best of all from the Team Obama side.  Their lies are understandable, but the puzzle remains as to how well such lies work with the Left’s constituents.  A lot of these must be the parents of kids like those in Florida who flunked the state’s reading test. The answer’s gotta be in the double helix.


We’ve never been able to compete with the Chinese in making cost effective photovoltaic collectors for the world markets.  Once China decided to become the low cost producer and appropriately promoted the technology among domestic manufacturers, it was off to the races.  We tried the same thing here and wound up with a bunch of Solyndras making stuff that no one could afford.  At the same time a lot of Americans did what Americans smelling an opportunity do – they started solar installation companies, expecting the feds to use whip and lash to drive consumers to their door.  For a second or two it even looked promising if they could install the Chinese low-cost leader PV products.  But then along came …, who? I don’t know who the latest dummy was who decided to put a 30% tariff on Chinese PV imports.

So now no one knows what’s happening in the most recent travesty befalling green energy.  All you can bet on is that more business opportunities will go down the drain along with their jobs.  And government mandated, union made American PV is going to go nowhere while the rest of the world continues buying from China.  Here’s a little schadenfreude – let’s hope China goes broke because the EU countries are pulling their subsidies from their PV projects.  Maybe then we’ll all rush to put economically insane US-made PV panels on our roofs.

Finally, after socialist Hollande became President, it’s OK to out that France’s socialized (universal access) healthcare has now run out of its allotted portion of GDP, and Hollande’s fellow socialists are demanding a bigger share of GDP for healthcare, as are all the other similarly afflicted redistributionist programs in the country.  This fact of life, shared by all EU countries with such social policies and reported on RR for years, has been continually denied by our collectivist neighbors.  Here is a socialist cum communist author on truthout.com describing the situation in France, and giving advice to America on how to get into similar straits.  It’s really easy, now everyone say after me, “Everyone contributes according to his resources and receives according to his needs.” This is the motto of the French healthcare system – no kidding.  Where have I heard that before?

Here’s an easy prediction – the rampant, visible, and documented unsustainability of Europe’s wealth transfer programs will deter no American socialists from their efforts to have us follow Europe’s path.

[update]  Well now, it seems that more and more people are beginning to write of Bayesian reasoning these days.  Russ Steele pointed me to a piece in the American Thinker by criminologist and Cal State prof Dr Jason Kissner – ‘Bayes’ Theorem and Mr Obama’s Literary Agency’.  The piece is a little dense, but does make the case that it is reasonable to assume at least agnosticism on Obama’s birthplace, even if before the latest revelations your prior belief in Kenya was mighty low.  And if you started your reasoning at a point of open-minded ignorance about Obama’s birthplace viz Kenya, then the 1991 literary agency piece should push your belief to almost certainty that our President was indeed born in the land of his fathers.

It’s unfortunate that the good professor never once uses a graphic or shows the Bayes equation which would make his arguments that much more clear to a numerate person.  But equivalently equipped RR readers can review the necessary background right here, starting with ‘Hello Bayes Theorem!’.

Kissner concludes his development in characteristic style with a double negative which for many of us require removing at least one shoe to figure it out.  “Is the birther position at present unreasonable?  Surely not; in fact, it may well be the most reasonable position to adopt even if you still think you had very good reasons to the contrary in advance of the promotional booklet’s release.”

[If time permits, in a future post I will present a hopefully more lucid form of Kissner’s argument.  In the interval, I hope that my previous posts on Bayes will serve.]

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74 responses to “Ruminations – 21may12 (updated)”

  1. George Rebane Avatar

    MichaelA 200pm – By “no one” I meant all the other serious people on the planet not counting the ‘birthers’. With present evidence discounted, I don’t believe that any of these ‘serious people’ will throw in with the birthers to attempt anything such as the removal of the President.
    However, you bring up an interesting point. If the birthers were able to get the matter heard by SCOTUS, and lose (as you predict), then I believe that President Obama would be a shoo-in for his second term. Which makes one think that if Obama’s advisers had faith to match yours, then they could and should find a way to get the case in front of SCOTUS.
    You want to bet me that with present (22may12) evidence that SCOTUS will rule in favor of Obama. I agree that the probability is high that it will. Therefore, if you want a bet, then give me some odds that reflect your faith. If new evidence comes to the fore, we can call the bet moot or re-negotiate.

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  2. Andersonmichael Avatar

    I am willing to bet that if the question of whether or not Obama is a natural-born citizen goes to the SCOTUS, its ruling will almost surely declare that he is a natural-born citizen. And I will hold to that bet, even “if new evidence comes to the fore.”

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  3. George Rebane Avatar

    MichaelA 248pm – did I just understand you to offer an even money bet? Even odds does not sound like the voice of conviction. I believe that SCOTUS will rule in Obama’s favor with probability 0.95, therefore investing $100 for an expected return of $10 is a fool’s bet. But then, maybe that designation was your very subtle and churchillian aim all along 😉

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  4. Andersonmichael Avatar

    Exactly. So the question then becomes, why do you still choose to write things like “Who knows where the man was actually born?”

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  5. George Rebane Avatar

    MichaelA 815pm – you are confusing two independent factors, 1) SCOTUS response to the evidence, and 2) reasonable conclusions drawn from evidence presented and withheld. I happened to agree with Dr Kessner’s analysis because it ties with what I have seen (and analyzed on my own PC) of the long form birth certificate, the response of Hawaii to Arizona’s request, and the WH bullshit explanation of the publisher’s promo material. Your judgment calls for you to believe the Democratic party line and the absence of a report from the FBI.

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  6. Andersonmichael Avatar

    George, you completely misunderstand where I am coming from. Let’s get some things straight about what I do and do not believe, OK?
    1. I believe and agree that President Obama has a past that we don’t know about and there are records, and perhaps legal documents, we can’t access. These records may, or may not, prove that he was untruthful. I don’t give a rip.
    2. And I don’t give a rip about the Democratic party line either. They can rot in hell for all I care.
    3. I believe and agree that SCOTUS will never decide that President Obama is not a natural born citizen, as defined by the US Constitution. NEVER. (Well, almost surely NEVER, as I posited above.)
    4. I believe that the whole discussion about Obama’s presidential worthiness is a very disturbing distraction from what we should be talking about in this campaign, as well as unpatriotic. President Obama is a natural born citizen under the law, and no injustice has been proffered.
    George, do you remember when Dan Rather purported to have uncovered documents authored by Lieutenant Colonel Jerry B. Killian regarding President Bush’s poor service record in the Texas Air National Guard? That’s on the same level as this birther nonsense. And for goodness sake, where Obama was born is a lot less portentous than a chicken hawk silver spoon who hid from Vietnam only to drag our military 30 yrs. later into a tragic middle east war that squandered copious amounts of American blood and treasure.
    I’m just trying to help you not look like Dan Rather.

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  7. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    Oh yeah, way back when some baby is born in Africa of an American mom and Kenyan dad. and all the folks there had the foresight to realize that he would some day manage to get himself into the running to be President of the USA, so they destroyed all the evidence that he was born there. The improbability factors involved would burn out your CPU.

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  8. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    That kind of foresight did happen once. A bunch of wise guys were told in advance to meet up at a special spot after following a GPS in the sky. So I guess that makes Obama’s mama the new Virgin Mary, and guess what, God must be black, it just didn’t show so much the first time around.
    Are we now done with this time wasting foolishness now? There’s real work to be done.
    BTW, that would be the ALU in the CPU, that burns out.

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  9. George Rebane Avatar

    MichaelA 1101pm – Thanks for the clarification and the help. Equating Bush2’s military record, which was neither unconstitutional nor remarkable in any way, with the debate over fulfilling a constitutional requirement for presidency is more than curious.
    The fact that liberals don’t give a “rip” about certain aspects of the Constitution does not make the question go away in the minds of millions of Americans. And adding the arguable damage that this President has done to the country, and now plans to double down on, makes all of his background rife for questioning. (No one has yet become President that has had such long and intimate relationships with communists, radical leftwingers, and public America haters.)
    None of the opposition in such discussions (RR and other blogs) to Obama’s legitimacy involves discussing the evidence. For example, in addition to what’s already widely known, there are Kenyan officials and Obama’s relatives who have presented documents and made sworn statements about his birth that should bear something more than a sniffing dismissal.
    And finally, what adds to the mystery component here is the thundering silence of the leftwing lamestream media. An industry that still strongly shapes America’s attitudes, and one that would leave no stone unturned had their target any conservative credentials.
    My own discussions with Republican electeds and staff on the matter reveals nothing new. National politicians are not going to risk their careers and relationships on issues their polling says are non-starters, principles be damned. It was ever thus.

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  10. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    The fact that 2/3rds of the country believes in one form or another of paranormal phenomena, does not make it an issue of public policy interest. Likewise those inspired by what is and always has been, political propganda spread by paid fear mongers like Rush and Savage, are simply not worthy of wasting time contemplating, because they’ll hold those beliefs like Marvin the Robot waiting at the Restaurant at the End of the Universe for 20 million years.

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  11. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    The records in Hawaii and the newspaper announcement totally trump anything from Kenya. Please post links to what you believe shows otherwise, and not to 2nd and 3rd hand information. You are degrading your blog to go on like this. Do you really want to be known as “Birth Bane?”

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  12. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    “Birther Bane?”

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  13. Andersonmichael Avatar

    George wrote: “My own discussions with Republican electeds and staff on the matter reveals nothing new. National politicians are not going to risk their careers and relationships on issues their polling says are non-starters, principles be damned.”
    Are you sure their lack of appreciation for principles is the reason? Maybe they don’t believe the “evidence” you are presenting. Or perhaps they also recognize that no matter where Obama was born, because his mother was an American citizen at the time, Obama is a constitutionally-recognized natural-born citizen. Which means–in their minds anyway–there is NO DEBATE regarding whether or not Obama’s birth “fulfill[s] a constitutional requirement for presidency.” Perhaps they just don’t share the fun in beating a dead horse to death over and over again.
    Well anyway, I think we’ve both had a delightful time putting forth our opinions on this subject. I don’t really have much more to say about it. Thanks for the conversation.

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  14. George Rebane Avatar

    Reuters just announced that AZ has accepted Hawaii’s certification of Obama’s birth there without having to see his birth certificate.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/23/us-usa-arizona-birther-idUSBRE84M13G20120523
    I agree with MichaelA’s 957am that we’ve all aired our respective positions on this ‘birther issue’ sufficiently. I will stand with the Bayesian analysis explicated by Kissner as cited in the post. In sum, I am at least an agnostic on Obama’s birthplace. Nuff said, thank you all.

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  15. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    About time, I’m an agnostic with respect to whether or not George Rebane actually exists. He could be just a very advanced hologram projected by aliens into my universe.
    Next question: Romney declares he can get unemployment down to 6%.
    How does he plan to do this? By virtual of WHAT policies he will put in place?
    George has already stated that he thinks we will hit 70 million unemployed by 2020, so obviously….?

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  16. George Rebane Avatar

    DougK 1025am – a worthy subject of discussion indeed. My participation in it will await a subsequent piece that I’m preparing on the economy. The comment stream of that post would be a most suitable venue for that question.

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  17. Ryan Mount Avatar

    Doug, George can’t prove that he doesn’t exist. Wait…maybe there’s an app for that.

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  18. Gregory Avatar

    We’ll know much more about Obama after he leaves office and journalists of the left-liberal persuasion (i.e. most of them) are no longer in their current difficult position of the past five years, similar to that of a Christian Scientist with appendicitis.

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  19. Gregory Avatar

    Don’t let Keachie read this, but his entire reality really is a very advanced hologram projected by aliens into his personal universe.

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  20. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    If Obama had been born in Estonia, and the church his birth was recorded had been destroyed during the war, they be blaming baby Obama for planting the bomb.
    “All the world’s a holodeck and we are but here to make our moves recite our lines. Some do them better than others.”

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  21. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    Unintentional eubonics (“they’d”), which brings up the question, how come the other side hasn’t brought up “Obamics?” Or certainly its companion, “Obamanomics?” Maybe it is rather hard to fault his command of the English language? Or they don’t want to be condemned to wearing a scarlet “R?”

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  22. Gregory Avatar

    I rest my case.

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  23. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    Good thing the expanding universe got started 10 – 15 billion years ago, so that now it is big enough for both of us.

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  24. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    You’ve burned out your bearings in your crankcase because you forgot to put the oil in before starting.

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