Rebane's Ruminations
August 2011
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George Rebane

CaliforniaBroke For the last years I have been telling RR readers that California was heading toward becoming a ward of the federal government – in short, federalized (e.g. here).  As with many major and momentous changes, I believe this was apparent to anyone who had a facility with arithmetic, and understood the basics of how wealth is produced.  It turns out that such skills are at a premium, hence we bloggers do provide some modicum of early warning and added value to the received wisdom from the mainstream (and lamestream) media.

One of these major media outlets in California is, of course, the LA Times.  And the worthies down there are finally starting to put things together.  In their 4aug11 issue they report –

The dirty little secret is that California’s current state budget is not $85.9 billion, the size of the much-debated, deficit-plagued general fund. You’ve got to add in the special funds ($34.2 billion) — much of them fed by fees dedicated for specific purposes — plus bond money ($9.4 billion). That totals $129.5 billion, but it still ignores federal dollars.

The real state budget includes an additional $79.2 billion in federal largesse, representing 38% of total state spending. This brings the grand total to $208.7 billion.

So the state of California is getting a nearly $209-billion spending program while putting up less than $130 billion itself.

So that is how far things have progressed.  The state’s socialists still crow in satisfaction that California sends more dollars to Washington than we get back.  While that is true, we must remember that those dollars are sent there under extreme duress (aka at gunpoint).

And what really seals our fate is that every one of those federal dollars comes back with an ‘owner’s manual’ telling us exactly how it should be disposed of and/or spent.  The only leeway that the feds have left for us in Sacramento is the ability to continue hurting ourselves in every imaginable way possible.  And this our legislature and governor are doing with a relish as they proudly demonstrate California’s “leadership” in how a state can mismanage its affairs.  Soon Washington will even take that away from us and assume our comprehensive mismanagement from across the country.

Please stay tuned.  (H/T to RR reader for the link.)

[update] A reader just emailed me the following story in the 3aug11 City Journal on the federally funded California high speed rail boondoggle.  Such screw-ups in policy and execution continue bathing California, and this is just one of many examples illustrating the points made above of how two levels of government collide in costly incompetence.

And reader georgef (see his comment below) emails that –

… this is the “plain language” version of the new GASB-35 (Download GASB-35 Plain Language 7-28-11 Pension Accounting and Financial Reporting) standard.  The previous drafts have been circulated for years; you can see the compromises necessary to get this result.

The discount rate topic is probably beyond the average reader but it is the essence of this level analysis.  The actual upper limit of a pension cannot be predicted due to spiking, use of unused vacation, and sick time which boost the last year of a retroactive calculation.

The triggering event will be the required disclosure of GASB-35 amounts about the same time as the federal financing is reduced.  The ability to borrow will be very limited.

That this California debt can only be handled by the feds – either by hopeless lending or destroying the dollar – should give some pause to those readers who consider it hyperbolic that California is already federalized.

Posted in ,

24 responses to “California Now Federalized (updated)”

  1. Jeff Pellne Avatar
    Jeff Pellne

    The only thing more broken than your argument is the link itself. Might want to get at least part of that right.

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  2. Ryan Mount Avatar

    I think George’s “the Feds are gonna control us” rhetoric is a bit over the top, but the part about our budget (and in turn our spending) being much larger than advertised should be explored further. But it makes for an interesting topic.
    What bugs me is that California doesn’t get much “payback” from the Federal government to start with:
    hhttp://www.taxfoundation.org/files/ftsbs-timeseries-20071016-.pdf
    As of 2005, we were only getting $0.78 for every dollar we send to Washington. That doesn’t seem right. Although people in Mississippi are doing well. As are many “Red” States.

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  3. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    One of the reasons states are broke is because of federal mandates. Not only in dollars but in regulations. One only needs to look at Medicaid to see some of the major reasons we are becoming federalized. Then look at the EPA, ESA and healthcare laws. Then the Supreme Court telling us we have to pay for illegals to the tune of billions a year. Yes, the feds need to be reigned in and federalism put in place of federalizing. It appears the FUE is yapping about something he has no clue about, but hey, what’s new?

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  4. George Rebane Avatar

    JeffP, thanks again for the kind words and the heads up.
    RyanM, I do believe you are missing the point here – there is no “are gonna” about it, the feds are already controlling us. This is both on institutional and personal levels as I have published national surveys in these pages on both counts. California is rated as the 49th state in personal freedoms. However, any evidence to the contrary is always welcomed.

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  5. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Jeff – you indicate there is a problem with George’s facts or conclusion. Do you have a counterpoint that would include some other facts or reasoning?

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  6. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Sorry Jeff, we weren’t ganging up on you – I was typing and trying to entertain my grandson at the same time. George re-posted in the mean time.

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  7. georgef Avatar
    georgef

    The disclosures of real pension obligations next year due to GASB-35 will add $500 billion to California’s debt.
    Combined with the change in federal contributions to the state, financing may become impossible.

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  8. Ryan Mount Avatar

    Well, I’m not as worried about the Feds controlling California as much as I’m bothered about only getting >75% of the money back from Washington that we send there. Heck, California’s regulatory infrastructure gives the Feds a run for its money. I mean, even at gas stations you’ll see California placards posted right next to Federal ones warning you that inhaling gas fumes is not a good idea. Apparently we need to be warned twice about something obvious. It’s like the warning on the side of Comet cleanser warning us not to eat it. Really? I shouldn’t eat Comet? I shouldn’t sniff gasoline fumes?
    We’re in agreement that the Federal Government has overstepped its authority and frankly, IMO, its usefulness in many areas of our lives. And it really bothers me that government spending makes up almost 40% of our GDP.(People who are benefiting from that 40% do not seem to complain as much, you know? I suppose people could say I benefit from it as well, and they’d be right, but not at this scale.) Where I suspect we might disagree is the scope and depth of its damage: I see it as a bunch of expensive, ineffective, and frankly absurd bureaucratic buffoonery(think: the film Brazil), where as I suspect you see it as a whittling away of our freedoms (think the book 1984). Maybe we’re both right?

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  9. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    wAS IT THE fEDERAL GOVERNMENT, OR THE tEA pARTY THAT JUST GOT $150,000,000,000 ADDED to our Federal deficit?
    Go Tea Party
    Your first “Mission Accomplished!”

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  10. George Rebane Avatar

    Anyone know what DougK is talking about?

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  11. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    I’ll have a go. The terrorists wouldn’t let the poor Dems jack up taxes on the productive members of our society that already provide most of the actual revenue going the bottomless hole of the treasury. This becomes the entire reason we suddenly have all of this debt and so with the downgrade, comes extra costs to service the debt. The fact that the TP and conservatives have been warning about this for decades means nothing to those in La La land. Over in the Kos, they are claiming that conservatives have never cared about fed debt until now. This sort of self imposed ignorance of reality is what we are up against in trying to get the country back on it’s feet. The next thought from the libs will be that the reason the cost of borrowing is going up is because those that have saved money and have it to invest are evil for not handing it over to the feds at interest rates far below the rate of inflation.

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  12. Larry Wirth Avatar
    Larry Wirth

    Scott, great post!

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  13. George Rebane Avatar

    Sounds reasonable to me Scott.

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  14. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    Collective additional interest paid on all loans, personal, state, and federal, due to new AA+ rating, down from AAA rating, supposedly. Could be just a newscaster screaming the sky is falling, but we shall see.

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  15. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    “far below the rate of inflation. ”
    Do you think we can beat the Germans in the 1920’s, or some African countries of today?

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  16. Scott Obermuller Avatar

    Hard to say if we can out do the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe, but even if it just goes to Nixon/Ford/Carter admin levels it will be bad enough. How will this country service it’s debt if folks can get 6 or 7% from the banks on CDs?

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  17. Greg Goodknight Avatar
    Greg Goodknight

    Show me someone wanting to increase corporate taxes and I’ll show you someone who isn’t relying on their 401(k) for retirement.
    If the Feds weren’t so upside down in their spending I’d be screaming for less corporate taxation, not more. Let the owners pay the taxes, if taxes are due. Taking the same cut off the top whether the stock is owned by the widow McGillicuddy down the street of the Teresa Heinz makes no sense, unless you have a government pension.

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  18. Greg Goodknight Avatar
    Greg Goodknight

    “Anyone know what DougK is talking about?”
    Anyone know of any evidence DougK does?

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  19. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    Is there any evidence that Greg has a sense of humor?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THNPmhBl-8I

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  20. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    If you don’t get the skit, do read some of the earlier comments, up around page 16 or 17. Brain scientists and rocket surgeons have at it.

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  21. DM Avatar
    DM

    Not a clue what he’s talking about,,, but I ” think” he does a little Kubota tractor work, and does it on a cash only basis. ( So I have been told)
    Ca. is trying an old tactic. They want to regulate us into prosperity. Anyone hear how much the “new” inter net tax has raked in? Or has revenue actually dropped because of it?
    I hate to say it, but we just might be better off if Ca. got sold to China. At least business wouldn’t have to pack up and leave to go there.

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  22. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    Actually, Dirt Mover, I have about $1100 in account receivables which I will probably have to write off, and every penny is reported to the IRS. How about you, getting any highway 49 or airport work?

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  23. DM Avatar
    DM

    Are you kidding??? Forget that goes to union carpetbaggers?
    And since when does ADA laws apply to them? Sure,, I could file a complaint, But what damned good would it do? The slightest disability makes damned good workers like me almost unemployable these days. HELL! Some returning VETS can’t even get a job doing what they did in the military. ( combat medics for an example)
    I am at the bottom of the employment heap. But I do have an employer.We just need the jobs. But guess what?? No one is spending money up here. Mr.”R” gave us some work, and we were mighty grateful for that.
    I thank the good Lord I made wise investment decitions a long time ago that keep just enough money coming in to keep my nose above water. ( That’s called planning ahead. I saw what the Progressives were up to, and man,,, was I right.)

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  24. Douglas Keachie Avatar

    It was a joint effort, Dirt, by the über-rich from both sides.

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