George Rebane
A little noticed rearrangement of Europe’s security apparatus will have a great impact on how ‘old Europe’ will finally react to its historical threats from the east (Russia) and south (Islam). NATO had the con on defending Europe against international communism (USSR) during the Cold War. With the collapse of the USSR and the rehabilitation of communism – it is now an openly pursued alternative form of governance in the US and the rest of the world – NATO entered its muddled decline that has become a farce with its forces arrayed tentatively and far from the territories it was intended to protect.
In this interval, European countries have reduced their defense expenditures to nil, letting Uncle Sam be the world’s policeman and do all the heavy lifting – literally. The German Bundeswehr – son of Wehrmacht, the inventor of the mechanized army and blitzkrieg – could not even transport its soldiers to the Polish border if they would reprise their attack of September 1939, the troops would have to hitchhike. In the meanwhile Germany has decided, that for its economic survival, it must make nice with the thugocracy that today is Russia.
And that leaves Poland and the other central Europeans to again play the role of buffer and pawns. They have been screwed, blued, and tattooed many times over the centuries by their neighbors, and they see it coming again. Their latest experience was the defection of Great Britain and France who signed mutual aid and guarantee of borders treaties after WW1 with the Baltics, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, … . When Stalin and Hitler attacked (per their secret Molotov-Ribbentrop pact signed in the spring of 1939), all these countries called for the military aid they had been promised. What they got was a fistful of diplomatic cables from the west that in essence said, ‘just kidding’.
Polish national memory recalls that it was that country which halted the tide of Islam’s Ottoman Turks in 1683 at the Battle of Vienna. Under the command of Poland’s King Sobieski the Muslims were thrown back into the Balkans where they have retained their European toehold to this day. Minarets on Europe’s skylines were postponed for three centuries.
Recently Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic have quietly united to revive the historic Visegrad Group. Under this union these countries recently announced the formation of a military force that is totally independent of NATO, and charged with the defense of central Europe. Expect the Visegrad Group to soon include the Baltics, Rumania, Bulgaria, Austria, and (here come the fireworks) the Ukraine. Eventually, the Christian remnants of Yugoslavia would also become natural members of this alliance, or assume the role of new pawns between Islam and Europe.
Stratfor has focused on tracking this development, and reports on it in ‘Visegrad: A New European Military Force’ by George Friedman (nearby map from that article). Those of us on these shores who are not mollified by the politically correct views of Islam should pay particular attention as this is the beginning of the renewed polarization of the next regional hegemons, Turkey and Poland.
As a footnote here, keep an eye on how Turkey will break its silence on the Arab Spring. Turkey cannot stand on the sidelines of this growing Islamic parade. It must step in there to take a leadership position when it sees that a caliphate-like coalescence is starting among the revolting countries of north Africa and the Middle East. President Obama’s 19may11 speech also laid the groundwork for that.
rebanesruminations.com 
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