Rebane's Ruminations
March 2011
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George Rebane

Gadhafi President Obama has made it clear that he wants the Arabs to view the US as being just one of the boys the UN mustered to take on Moammar Gadhafi.  Not only that, but we’re in the back of the pack somewhere right behind the French, Brits, and Italians.  That is our new inclusive and multi-lateral ‘by your leave’ foreign policy.  Of course, no Arab in his most charitable moment believes that; Obama’s audience is the addled of America.

Obama has skillfully(?) created a power vacuum in the Mediterranean for others to fill.  And they have put on a mighty charade to do so.  The French even had one of their jets draw first blood, and the British are there with their handful of fighters (but they couldn’t muster their carrier to make it, even though it would have been a tremendous opportunity for some in theater training).  Actually, nothing would successfully move toward the Libyan beach without America’s presence and support.

One of our eleven carrier task groups led by CVN USS Enterprise is operating off Libyan shores, along with the amphibious warfare group centered on the large deck USS Kearsarge assault carrier.  Two of our Tomahawk capable nuclear subs are also in theater.  And of the 124 Tomahawks fired so far, 122 were launched from US Navy ships.  But we do hear that the French, and maybe the Brits, are doing some independent targeting for political purposes.  This may explain tonight’s report of Moammar’s Tripoli compound coming under missile attack – an attack that the Pentagon denied having any part in .


Obama’s strategy seems to have been to get there at the last possible moment after making sure that 1) “pivotal statements” had been issued by the Arab League (who are now busy retracting them), 2) the UN Security Council had wordsmithed a resolution, and 3) our European friends were already there with their dozen jets.  All this was to confirm in the world’s mind that this participation was “not in America’s interests”, but merely to do the right thing for the Libyan people within the imprimatur of the international community.  And maybe, just maybe, that’s actually what our commander-in-chief was really thinking (Lord save us all).

While all this is going on, we have reporters who still don’t know any basics of modern warfare delivering silly reports from the balconies of Tripoli, and Chris Wallace on Fox News asking Admiral Mike Mullen (Chmn Joint Chiefs of Staff) political questions that no military man would dream of answering.  Just once I would like to hear one of these high ranking flag officers respond ‘Chris, your question requires me to second guess my civilian political bosses.  You should know enough about how our government and military work to not go there during such interviews.  Were you trying to sandbag me, or do you have extra time to fill so I can deliver some lame sidestep answer?’  Maybe that would bring such interviews back into the adult realm.

Meanwhile President Obama is making it clear that we are not there to take out Gadhafi, the one whom he identified as a rogue and no longer “the legitimate” leader of Libya.  Well then, what are we going to do if we let him survive as the leader over some part of that North African desert?  Will this be Saddam Hussein and Gulf One revisited?  Even as Moammar the Mighty surrounds himself with a protective cordon of women and children who ‘volunteer’ to give their lives for him, all of the Arab world will view our letting the sumbich live as another confirmation of American weakness.  And for this we will pay a price.

Were I king, there would be an immediate $10M reward to whoever can deliver Gadhafi’s head in a basket, while we make sure that both the rebels and his own security people have an equal opportunity to collect the money.  And were we to continue involving ourselves in such two-bit adventures, I’d make damn sure that we would loudly confirm what everyone already believes and knows – that America does act in its own best interest on the world stage.  It’s time to climb back into the front seat.

[21mar2011 update]  RR reader and commenter Mikey McD included a link to a telling four-year-old interview the Boston Globe did with then Senator Barack Obama that John Galt, another reader and commenter, recommended for all to read and feared its removal from the newspaper’s website.  To allay such fears I have abstracted that interview, and you can download a pdf of it here – Download Obama22dec07Q&A.

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72 responses to “Libya – Driving from the Back Seat (updated 21mar2011)”

  1. George Rebane Avatar

    Paul, I see us intervening in the affairs of other nations only to the extent that it supports our national interests. And we all agree that this leads to a lot of latitude of interpretation. We have given this appearance, to various levels of competence, over the last century. If a case can be made that we would/should also intervene on altruistic humanitarian grounds, then that and/or its variations should be voiced by every occupant of the White House in sufficient detail, clarity, and strength to invite labels such as Bush Doctrine and Obama Doctrine.
    But such interventions, given their other prerequisites, only make sense as long as we continue to possess the “essential resources” to achieve a clearly stated objective. What I have seen Obama do over his tenure is to move us toward relinquishing such resources as they are needed militarily, in economic strength, national unity, and diplomatic credibility. In my 25mar11 post I update my assessment of why this is happening.
    Overall though, I think we are both in agreement here, with the possible exception that doctrine-independent altruistic motivations for military intervention should not be in our modus operandi.

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  2. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    So George specifically in your opinion, should we have intervened as we did in Libya last week. (past tense because we did)

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  3. D. King Avatar
    D. King

    Paul Said:
    “I speculate that we lost confidence in our ability to control him and decided to support those against him to hedge our bet.”
    Agreed, and I speculate the Abdelbaset al-Megrahi affaire was used as leverage and a bludgeoning tool by Gadhafi to renegotiate terms of the B.P. oil deal. OOPS!
    I also think belief in a spontaneous outbreak of democracy in the Middle East is naive.

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  4. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    Yes indeed. Our misadventure in Iraq is testimony to the level of commitment it takes to attempt to install a Western style Democracy in the region. The possible nightmare scenario in the region is that there is an inspired freedom movement that topples stable dictatorships that are replaced by more radical Islamic theocracy’s. These regions have no tradition of Democracy.
    Let me quote President Bush from 2005 on the question of Democracy in the Middle East
    “The advance of hope in the Middle East requires new thinking in the region,” the president said. “By now it should be clear that authoritarian rule is not the wave of the future. It is the last gasp of a discredited past.”
    Mr. Bush said the entire world has “an urgent interest in the progress and hope and freedom in the broader Middle East.”
    “Our duty is now clear,” he said. “For the sake of our long-term security, all free nations must stand with the forces of democracy and justice that have begun to transform the Middle East.”
    That statement seems to imply that Democracy in the region is a vital interest and with that statement in mind it seems that we are extending the invitation to overthrow dictators and that we will help in the effort. Again when the President of the United States says “all free nations must stand……” how can that be interpreted otherwise. We must sleep in the bed we made in this situation,
    Thanks for the dialogue everyone. This is a very important topic and is one that will reoccur over and over.

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  5. George Rebane Avatar

    To begin, I hold with DaveK about such a “spontaneous outbreak”. And to that we now add that our administration and lamestream media’s understanding of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (and elsewhere) was beyond naive, and had to serve some other agenda. I stood with the much derided Glenn Beck on that early call.
    In such case the answer to, “should we have intervened as we did”, is a firm NO. Were there other intervention modes we could have exercised? Probably YES, but now we’re going to part company. Because all of my justifications involve making very clear what they have always believed of us, we want a secure, stable, and low cost source of oil for our civilization.
    Cutting a slice of realpolitik for them, we have to state that all of your human needs are subservient to that objective, and any faction that makes such reliable oil supplies available will receive our aid. We will not sacrifice our energy needs for your humanitarian needs. The codicil would always be our preference that such factions have the same socio-economic values that we in the west do, but that is not a pre-requisite.

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  6. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    So then George would you disagree with President Bush that fighting for Democracy in Iraq is a worthwhile venture. After there were no WMD’s discovered he changed his rationale for our invasion and occupation of Iraq from ousting Saddam for our self defense to spearheading a movement towards Democracy in the region,
    “By helping Iraqis to build a democracy, we will gain an ally in the war on terror. By helping Iraqis build a democracy, we will inspire reformers across the Middle East. And by helping Iraqis build a democracy, we will bring hope to a troubled region, and this will make the American people more secure.”
    Did you support the invasion of Iraq? If so how are the circumstances different in Libya. Also, do you believe that the people of Egypt would have been better served by the continuation of the Mubarak dictatorship?
    I mean Gadhafi was an outright terrorist and greeted convicted bomber Abdelbaset al-Megrahi with a national holiday and a party in the streets. By your estimation then should we base our foreign policy first on the economic value to our country without regard to the freedom of the people?

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  7. D. King Avatar
    D. King

    No boots on the ground?
    Why Paul?

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  8. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    D King
    That’s a really good question and one that I cannot justify if the assistance of the freedom movement is a top priority. We may be in too deep already and some sort of international occupation similar to Bosnia may be in order. Once this guy is toppled (and he will go) his mercenaries and professional army will disappear and something will fill the void. At that point we need to get out of the way or we’ll be stuck in another Iraq. there are those who believe this is part of a strategy to build permanent bases in the area and I think it’s possible they may be right. My support for this action is very marginal and I may be wrong.

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  9. D. King Avatar
    D. King

    Well, I expect to hear in the next few weeks how wonderful the war is going from the MSM. (Zoltar predicts!)

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  10. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    I think it is in everyone’s best interest that the US intervention is helpful in ousting Gadhafi and that it is not expanded into an occupation such as in Iraq of Afghanistan.

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  11. D. King Avatar
    D. King

    Paul,
    I do not agree with this completely; however it is as good an analysis as I have read.
    “We should not kid ourselves. In foreign policy, all moral questions are really questions of power. We intervened twice in the Balkans in the 1990s only because Yugoslav dictator Slobodan Milosevic had no nuclear weapons and could not retaliate against us, unlike the Russians, whose destruction of Chechnya prompted no thought of intervention on our part (nor did ethnic cleansing elsewhere in the Caucasus, because it was in Russia’s sphere of influence). At present, helping the embattled Libyan rebels does not affect our interests, so we stand up for human rights there. But helping Bahrain’s embattled Shia, or Yemen’s antiregime protesters, would undermine key allies, so we do nothing as demonstrators are killed in the streets.”
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704050204576218842399053176.html
    Dave

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  12. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    That pretty much sums it up. That’s why I cannot support a policy that encourages rebellion and allow thousands to die in the streets as we did in Iraq in Gulf War I. As I said earlier, when I was a young teen I was deeply affected by what I perceived as the failure of America to stand up for freedom in Hungary and Czechoslovakia. I was so young and naive that I later supported Barry Goldwater All that changed with the war in Vietnam when the true nature of the beast was revealed.
    We are now in the position of deciding whether to support freedom movements that we encouraged. To a certain degree we need to accept responsibility for our implied support. Basically, we are imperialistic and act only in our own self interest which, according to George R, is the way we should be. His thinking is consistent but let’s not pretend to be the beacon of freedom for aspiring democracies without a commitment to follow through with support when they rise up and revolt.

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  13. George Rebane Avatar
    George Rebane

    Paul, you almost understood what I said, but not quite. Without the overtones – we have been and continue to be a beacon of freedom, but our wise interventions in other nations have always been in our national interest first, and then collaterally to help those who are or want to be most like us. We screw up every time we have not applied that.
    And I know of no American policy that requires us to be a “beacon of freedom” for anyone. We are what we are because that is our way. It is the goddam foreigners (like my family and me) who assign that label to America, and then do their damnest to get here. That in itself does not obligate us to put our nose into anyone else’s affairs. And that, my friend, is a right/left differentiation. It is invariably the left that always wants to make the world ‘safe for democracty’.
    For that reason I would like to think that Bush2’s better nature had a secure supply of world’s oil in mind, instead of Iraqi freedom when he went after Saddam.
    Your support of Lyndon Johnson was misguided, that sleazebag got us ass deep into Vietnam on a pretense (the Gulf of Tonkin ‘attack’) the cover of which was almost immediately blown. But the lamestream never, even to this day, have called him on it. It’s much better to harp on Nixon who got us out, and Bush2 against whom there is no shred of evidence that he or the international community fabricated WMD evidence. Saddam’s WMD sin was a mis-intelligence of opportunity.
    But in sum Paul, I agree that resolving the purposeive nature of our intervention in foreign lands is a worthy goal, and I appreciate your bringing up the altruistic perspective on it.

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  14. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    I never said I supported LBJ. I voted for Barry in that one. After it was revealed that the war was based on a lie I did all I could to oppose the war and supported McCarthy in 68.
    I’d gladly challenge you that there was no evidence of fabricated WMD info. George,, it was the Bay on Tonkin all over again. Here’s a start.
    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/01/60minutes/main3440577.shtml
    The point is that after the WMD fiasco Bush changed tactics and said we invaded to secure the freedom of Iraq as I documented earlier. If he lied about that and the real reason was to secure a strategic resource that, in your view was a justification for war, where does that lead us? Is it OK for the President to lie about the reason for war? Making the issue contemporary and relevant to this posting would it not then be justifiable, under your standards, for Obama to mislead the American people about our reason for intervening in Libya if indeed it was to secure a strategic resource-oil.

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  15. George Rebane Avatar

    It is not OK for the President to lie about the reason for going to war. As I have stated, the President should clearly state that our national policy is to promote our national interests, and this may call for us to commit our military. Such national interest should be spelled out for all to see – we are one of the few nations in the world that can do that with a straight face.
    The world’s decision makers and power brokers are not idiots. We play into their hands when we play with telling truth to our own citizens.

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  16. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    So if truthfulness should be a criteria for an honest appeal to the American people was Bush 2 telling he truth about the reasons for going to war with Iraq? I recall no reference to the control of oil reserves in any of his justifications. I contend it was the plan all along to go to war with Iraq even before 9-11 and that the whole WMD reason was a plan to deceive the American people.
    Of course the “Neo Cons” that made up his cabinet and were his chief advisors were quite clear from the start about this but it was never a stated reason for war Bush made to the American people. Vice President Dick Cheney was a founding member of Project for a New American Century , along with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Defense Policy Board chairman Richard Perle. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz was the ideological father of the group. Here are some exempts from the document “Rebuilding America’s Defenses,” September 2000, Project for a New American Century signed by Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz, Donald Rumsfeld, Jeb Bush, Richard Perle, Scooter Libby and our old pal Donald Feith.
    “While the unresolved conflict with Iraq provides the immediate justification, the need for a substantial American force presence in the Gulf transcends the issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein …
    “the process of [military] transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor …
    … advanced forms of biological warfare that can “target” specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.”
    I can go on and on with these.

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  17. George Rebane Avatar

    Paul, you’re doing one of your jump shifts again. I thought our topic was outlining our own specifications for presidential reasoning, advice/consent, and public announcements before going to war. I have given you my druthers.
    In response you seem to have shifted to the classical liberal indictment of Bush2 for attacking Iraq.
    What’s the topic and where are we going with this?

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  18. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    George, here are a couple of your recent quotes.
    “For that reason I would like to think that Bush2’s better nature had a secure supply of world’s oil in mind, instead of Iraqi freedom when he went after Saddam.”
    “It is not OK for the President to lie about the reason for going to war. As I have stated, the President should clearly state that our national policy is to promote our national interests, and this may call for us to commit our military.”
    Since nowhere can I find a clear statement from Bush2 about oil being the primary justification for the American of Iraq isn’t it hypocritical to on one hand applaud him for his “better nature” and yet say it’s not OK for a President to lie about reasons for war. Bringing this up to date then unless you can reconcile the inconsistency of these statements how can I take your harsh critique of Obama’s action in Libya seriously. It seems to me to be just another Obama bad rant with no justification even by your own standards. By your evaluation then were this statement accurate “For that reason I would like to think that Obama’s better nature had a secure supply of world’s oil in mind, instead of Libya’s freedom” wouldn’t that justify Obama’s action and even garner support from your camp?
    I happen to believe he true reason for our intervention had to do with oil supplies but I welcome the greater good side effect of saving thousands of lives from slaughter and disposing of a terrible dictator.

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  19. George Rebane Avatar

    Paul, I’ve tried to address the problem of understanding decisions based on trade-offs before in these comment threads. From your consternation with my “inconsistencies” it is clear that my previous efforts have been in vain. And you are not alone in holding such views. This dictates that I post a piece on what in decision science is known as multi-attribute decision theory – complex stuff, but crucial subject matter for discussing complex notions like presidential actions in the real world. Without that common understanding, such conversations will not get off the dime.

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  20. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    So then I am left with the conclusion that you do not wish to directly confront the questions I have posed based on your recent statements. Once again I ask was Bush2 justified in withholding the true reason for our invasion of Iraq from the public dialogue and why can’t Obama use the same evasion when justifying our action in Iibya. You should be able to answer this in common language and not defer to an obscure theory that few of us are aware of. I am asking for your opinion nothing more. What theory you use to develop it is a different topic.

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  21. George Rebane Avatar

    OK Paul, you can be left with any conclusion that gives you comfort. I have already stated that if Bush2 would have played according to my rules, then he would have led with the oil argument for invasion, and used any intel he had on WMD as a Lucky Strike extra to abet his decision.
    If Libya’s oil exports are judged to be in our national interest, I would want Obama to make that case and also lead with that justification for our involvement.
    Both presidents seem to have decided to evade what to the world seems/seemed like the real reason for use of military force. And that always gets us blowing smoke about freedom, democracy, human rights, and a lot of other stuff that is ancillary, if that.

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  22. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    I agree with your summary of the similarity of both situations. How then can we rise above partisan pandering and demand honesty from our elected leaders? The decision to go to war is the most serious commitment our President can make with our blood and our money. Bush should have been impeached for lying to the American people about his administrations true intent in going to war in Iraq. I have to ask where was the Right on this? With the notable exception of Ron Paul it was partisan BS as usual. I’ll give Obama a very short leash on this one. We’ll see what he says later today. The question of the justification of raiding another country for their stuff just because we can is another topic that we should discuss at another time.

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