Rebane's Ruminations
January 2011
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George Rebane

The newly proposed lecture series ‘What’s Next in Science?’ is causing a dust-up in the local blogs, and as a former scientist who has worked on the frontiers of knowledge, I should weigh in.  At issue is how the Nevada County Board of Supervisors should respond to the lecture series that is being organized by local residents Mr Robert Bergman, current mayor of Nevada City, and Dr Judith Kildow, PhD, retired professor of “ocean related issues”.

Given their well-known ideological bents and the tentative list of first year lecture titles/subjects, the organizers appear to be launching a program promoting California’s highly politicized AB32 global warming agenda (more detail on this is found here on Russ Steele’s NCMW).  As long as Mr Bergman and Dr Kildow are acting as private citizens, I don’t think there is anything wrong with such an activity wrapped into the folds of selectively supportive science – even if it turns out to be propaganda light, or even some stronger stuff.  It is their First Amendment right.

And who knows, their lecture series may even become a staple of our local culture, drawing in audiences from near and far.  If it indeed turns out to be such a salutary community betterment enterprise, then from various local elected bodies the lecture series and its founders would be due resolutions of recognition that are suitable for framing.

But what I find more than a bit gratuitous is that such a resolution is being sought from our BoS even before the first lecture is scheduled.  This is the same board that less than six months ago deemed a resolution in favor of Prop23 to curtail job-killing AB32 to be beyond their self-inflicted non-partisan pale (well covered here and on NCMW).  Does this look like the Rood Center is preparing for a premature change of ideology ceremony?

One can well argue that we are now reduced to a 3-2 conservative majority on the Board.  But it still is a majority that can carry the day, a majority that can still take a principled stand against betting our economic future on the promise of government subsidies, if only we play ball and turn our left cheek toward Sacramento’s progressive plutocrats.   Perhaps the advertized theme of the lecture series – ‘Bringing the Ocean to the Sierra’ – really derives from the political gerrymandering of the coastal districts vs the inland and mountain districts.  We will all then hear the socialized surf.

Perhaps I should also sign this
Dr George Rebane, PhD

[11jan2011 update]  The resolution has been pulled from today BoS agenda.

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23 responses to “Politically Endorsed Science (updated 11jan2011)”

  1. Russ Steele Avatar

    I agree the good Mayor of Nevada City, Robert Bergman, and Dr Judith Kildow, PhD have all the first ammendments right they need to speak on any subject they desire for the general public, as well as do their chosen speakers. However, I do object to them asking the BOS to endorse the program before they have presented their material for public consumption. What are the BOS really endorsing, we so far have only seen the suggested titles. Since human caused global waming is still an open issue, If they want to address high school and grade school classes both side of the argument should be presented.

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  2. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Good point Russ. Both sides of the issue should be taught. George, when I was fighting the takeover of our Yuba River back in the 90’s the eco’s were constantly trying to get BOS and Council Resolutions of support. These same people were previously screaming we were being irresponsible when a anti nuke freeze resolution was asked for. They can bring their crap to the people but the people are now seeing the hoaxers in the light. These acid ocean nuts were debunked at the last Congressional hearings last month bewfore the committee was booted. The BOS should listen and then ask George and Russ to present the anti hoax movies and lectures. Hmmm.

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  3. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    I would like to argue the side against gravity!

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  4. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Since you have no scientific smarts you would be representing your side well.

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  5. Dixon Cruickshank Avatar
    Dixon Cruickshank

    Will the students even notice a resolution has been passed? I doubt it, but good point about they can’t issue a stance on a majot statewide issue.
    frisch you are now in the pathic arena like Enos, based on statements I read tonight

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  6. Greg Goodknight Avatar
    Greg Goodknight

    Steve Frisch, the Chief Executive Chef of the misnamed Sierra Business Council, you usually are arguing the side against gravity.
    Dr. Kildow doesn’t actually have any scientific degrees either. From her C.V.:
    Grinnell College, AB, major, Political Science, 1964
    The Fletcher School, Tufts University, M.A.1965; M.A. Law and Diplomacy, 1966; Ph.D. International Relations and Science Policy, 1972
    Looks like classic PoliSci to me. To get a good view of what is next in science, it might be good to actually include a scientist or two, if only for window dressing.

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  7. George Rebane Avatar

    Well that’s a fine kettle of fish you’ve uncovered Greg. Has she passed herself off as a scientist to anyone other than our Supes and the local city councils?

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  8. Greg Goodknight Avatar
    Greg Goodknight

    Simply stated, she’s a social scientist and a science policy professor. Folks without a clue might think that’s the practical equivalent of a scientist.
    http://www.oceaneconomics.org/About/CVs/Kildow%20full%20CV.pdf

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  9. Todd Juvinall Avatar
    Todd Juvinall

    Looks as if she is a political operative and not a scientist.

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  10. George Rebane Avatar

    Greg, Todd – Dr Kildow does indeed look and behave as a political operative. And unfortunately, “folks without a clue” abound in these parts when it comes to business and the environment.

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  11. Jon Shilling Avatar
    Jon Shilling

    I just listened to Alan Stahler on KVMR where he interviewed the author of ‘A Rough Guide To Climate Change’. I enjoyed the interview and discussion. Thoughts?

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  12. George Rebane Avatar

    Jon, I didn’t hear the interview. Do you have some summary points that the author made which resonated with you?

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  13. Jon Shilling Avatar
    Jon Shilling

    I like alot of people are getting tired of the arguments between the left and right on climate change (amongst other things). I perceive Alan to be looking at a lot of studies and looking at each based on what the science is and not what we want it to be. He doesn’t seem to take a side, politically. I found it enlightening and just wondered your take on him personally and/ or this book.

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  14. George Rebane Avatar

    Jon, I’m not familiar with Alan Stahler’s AGW arguments. But if he’s not taking sides politically, that means that he considers the science not resolved enough to serve as the foundation for making national (international) public policy. The political aspect is all about believing the science to be correct enough for making public policy, apparently no matter how draconian.
    Stahler then would recommend more work in selected areas before we start things like ‘cap and trade/tax’. My assessment as a systems scientist would then agree with his.

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  15. Jon Shilling Avatar
    Jon Shilling

    George,
    Pretty close. I don’t know if you are both on the exact same page but maybe closer than some would think. I’m going to get the ‘Rough Guide to Climate Change’ to check it out.

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  16. Greg Goodknight Avatar
    Greg Goodknight

    Interesting that the item was pulled from the BoS agenda. Perhaps the reason(s) will be shared someday.
    Unless the “Rough Guide” covers the determination of climate feedbacks and the role of galactic cosmic rays in cloud formation, it really isn’t worth reading. That’s where the meat of the controversy lies.

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  17. George Rebane Avatar

    Earth’s temperature as a single number is the output of an algorithm that involves selective data collection and processing before it is input into a collection of formulas (that include subjective weights) which then spits out the number. Such a ‘temperature’ is computed for various epochs based on different sets of observables (input data) and, of course, formulas. These are then cobbled together to give what looks like the output from a single consistent measurment process.
    Even so, such a single temperature ‘reading’ has seen many ups (higher than today’s) and down in earth’s history. The True Believers ascribe the recent ups to (synoptic) climate change, and the downs to (topical) weather.
    One should note that when a noisy time series reverses direction, its maximum/minimum values tend to replicate before the reverse direction is established.

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  18. Greg Goodknight Avatar
    Greg Goodknight

    By unbiased satellite records, 2010 was almost as warm as 1998. There’s nothing wrong, per se, with homogenizing surface records to try to generate a single temperature from an amalgam of recording stations that come and go over time, but in the end, it’s really not that useful except to scare children of all ages.
    We’ve just ended a natural warming cycle related to Pacific and Atlantic temperature oscillations that have only begun to be understood this past last decade. There is a big gap between noticing the temperature changes of the past 40 years and attributing it to one thing like CO2.
    CO2 does have a small effect on climate, but the catastrophic visions are all based on positive feedbacks involving water evaporation and the single biggest Earthly greenhouse gas, water vapor. Those feedbacks do not exist as the models assumed, and the heat attributed to the phantom positive feedback was instead cause by a reduction in cloud cover due to newly discovered solar effects on aerosols and cloud formation.

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  19. Greg Goodknight Avatar
    Greg Goodknight

    Al Stahler posted some info on a local blog, gently correcting our very own local climate stalker who seemed to think the program was more one sided than it was.
    Podcast is here:
    http://audio.kvmr.org/podhawk/index.php?cat=Soundings
    Henson isn’t a scientist, he’s a journalist who works for UCAR’s house organ.
    http://www2.ucar.edu/news/ucar-communications/henson
    To Al’s credit, he asked some Henson some inconvenient questions regarding clouds and aerosols, and Henson resorted to a version of pascal’s wager and cancer metaphors to handwave the questions away.

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  20. George Rebane Avatar

    Thanks for the links Greg. That was an interesting interview. Not sure I mapped the Pascal wager as well, but I was interested in the number of uncertainties that were either left out or quickly painted over. You may have read some of my thoughts on the nested considerations that a systematic approach should consider. I still don’t see many people discussing that chain of reasoning. It appears that there is a little bit of disparate science here, and a little bit more there, and then a miracle happens as we leap across the intervening considerations and arrive at the AGW conclusion along with the AGW cure.
    BTW, it does appear that people are no longer foisting the outputs of the embarrassing general circulation models which have been pretty well discredited for any kinds of multi-decadal predictions.

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  21. Mikey McD Avatar
    Mikey McD

    As a simple man I point to 3 major data points
    1- last summer was cool by any standards (my pool did not get used as much as normal)
    2- regulatory- snowfall has kept Washington D.C. from debating cap-n-tax (ironic to say the least) and this years global warming meeting in Mexico was met with the coldest temps on record
    3- this winter I have burned more wood than ever before (more three dog nights than ever in my life)

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  22. Greg Goodknight Avatar
    Greg Goodknight

    George, mea culpa, I should have written ‘precautionary principle’ not ‘pascal’s wager’.

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