Rebane's Ruminations
August 2010
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George Rebane

Looking at Stratfor’s weekly update of our force projection resources – overwhelmingly the carrier strike groups and amphibious ready groups (each with a reinforced marine battalion) – I noticed that we now have only eleven carrier strike groups operational (click to enlarge).  Until last year we had twelve.  Of these eleven we notice that two are currently “nondeployable”.  Overall, it looks like the world is pretty much at peace with the North Korean thugocracy having again changed its mind to not “respond physically” to the recent US-South Korea naval exercises.  Also we are not bringing in any additional forces into the Arabian Sea to support an imminent strike against Iran.

StratforFleetUpdate100804 

Time to refocus our attention again on gay marriage (Prop 8 overturned), radical rightwing tea baggers, and attracting manufacturers to Nevada County.

[5aug2010 update]  Today the Pentagon announced that China has developed and is prepared to test a ‘carrier buster’ weapon system that fires a Mach 12 terminally guided missile that can take out one of our super carriers, the ship which forms the nucleus of each of the above described carrier task groups.  China knows that we have no designs on its landmass, but they do have designs on becoming the hegemon of east Asia.  What stands in their way is America’s ability to deploy the above described resources to block them, therefore the new missile.

It appears that they are aware of the new Alinsky acolytes in the White House, but just in case we will not unilaterally retire our task groups in a timely manner, China wants to give our progressives a little more ammo to speed up the process with the argument, ‘why keep them operational since China will be able to poleax them at will?’  But anyone who has worked on such complex weapon systems will tell you that there are some serious counter-measures that such a ‘carrier buster’ will have to overcome.  In the meanwhile, the Chinese continue work on their own carrier task groups.

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10 responses to “Fleet Update 4aug2010 (updated 5aug2010)”

  1. Paul Emery Avatar
    Paul Emery

    I’m leaving town for a vacation in a place that has no internet or cell phones. I’m sure there’s enough opinions to go around without me.

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  2. Barry Pruett Avatar

    Paul…envious I am.

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  3. Russ Steele Avatar

    Paul,
    Look forward to your return. I have enjoyed reading your comments. Do not always agree, but always food for thought. Have a great vacation.

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  4. Steven Frisch Avatar
    Steven Frisch

    Just curious….how many carrier task forces do enemies of the United States have deployed on the high seas right now?
    Just checking, because I want to go to bed knowing I am secure.
    I’m going to give you a guess…..would it be NONE?

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  5. George Rebane Avatar
    George Rebane

    SteveF – you are right, we are the only country able to project power through such expensive naval assets. Our friends have relied on us for over sixty years, and in the course benefitted tremendously in building their economies under this shield. As testimony to their effectiveness, our past and again potential enemies are busy building their own carrier task groups even as you go to bed. China is building two, Russia is revamping the one they almost had when the USSR collapsed. And in the US our progressives are doing everything possible to make sure that we will reach par force levels with the rest of the world as quickly as our newly collectivized economy will ‘permit’. Sleep well.

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  6. Michael Anderson Avatar
    Michael Anderson

    George,
    I think you have made a good argument in past posts that you have no truck for excessive expenditure, nor corpulent glad-handing, in any of the corrupt industrial complexes that currently plague the American taxpayer.
    I happen to think that there is good ARRA funding and bad ARRA funding. Just as there is good national security funding and bad national security funding.
    A good example of bad national security funding is boats on the water. They are sitting ducks with the new technologies of the 21st century. They are a Maginot Line.
    Put those boats into orbit. Killer sodium lasers, etc. We only need, at the most, 3 carrier task groups, if that. Eleven or twelve is just plain ridiculous.
    M.

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  7. George Rebane Avatar
    George Rebane

    Good points Michael. Being the first to weaponize space is a political hurdle that an American administration, especially this one, will have overcoming. Also take a look at how many task groups we have to have to maintain four or five on station. The Russians and Chinese obviously do not agree with your assessment of their being an outdated Maginot line. And if we stand down our current inventory too quickly, there will be hell to pay all around the world. Tough problem.
    We’ve always had others draw us into wars when we were perceived too weak (other wars we entered voluntarily). In the old days our oceans and vast manufacturing plant gave us time to arm. A future world war will probably not last a month, even if there is no massive nuclear exchange onto each other’s homelands.

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  8. Michael Anderson Avatar
    Michael Anderson

    Yes, I agree that WWIII will be quick. That is the main reason why I don’t like boats. The Iranian ground-to-ground missiles will devastate at least one task group–if not two (if there is a carry-over effect to other theaters).
    I can’t speak to why the Russians would be bothering with a task group, but as for the Chinese, they have to spend their money on something! I don’t doubt that the military industrial complex in Washington D.C. is trying to figure out some way to make money on helping the Chinese build boats. Sure, they can’t do it overtly, but technologically they can certainly contribute. Which builds the bottom line at home.
    Sorry for being so cynical, but I have family who have worked the Washington D.C. industrial complex trades since the 1930s, so I know the game.
    Here’s another game: http://www.harpoonhq.com/harpoon3/scenarios/harmsway.html
    M.

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  9. George Rebane Avatar
    George Rebane

    Michael, your cynicism about our ‘military industrial’ complex appears to ascribe treason to their bag of tricks. That puts you among the top echelon of anti-US conspiracy theorists. Please don’t misunderstand, I am not denigrating your assessments, only trying to understand them better (I have a few of my own).
    The level of detail and expansion of scope that your arguments against carrier task groups are encompassing will require a cup of coffee or two to sort out. At your pleasure.

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  10. Michael Anderson Avatar
    Michael Anderson

    George,
    Please don’t misunderstand, I am not describing treasonous activities. This the the gray area of the global military industrial complex, where your fancy idea becomes my nifty product overnight. Hardware and software doesn’t recognize nation-state borders; it flows like water in an ecosystem of social system self-interest.
    Look at this patent backlog, it’s a national scandal: http://www.formtek.com/blog/?p=1407
    If we were to spend $4b of ARRA money in breaking this logjam, it seems to me we could really start the innovation engine humming again.
    Yes, coffee. We’re due. It’s summer and the kids are out of school so we’ve been working hard to keep them active and academically engaged. They go back right after the fair is done, so let’s plan for sometime during the 3rd wk. of August.

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